Braves vs Dodgers Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 19 (10/19): MLB

Braves vs Dodgers Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 19 (10/19): MLB

Credit: photo by Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Time 5:08 p.m. EST
Braves money line +156
Braves run line +1.5 (-135)
Dodgers money line -190
Dodgers run line -1.5 (+115)
Over / under 7.5 (-105)


Key stats
  Braves Dodgers
Record 93-73 110-60
Road / home record 47-36 60-24
Last 10 record 8-2 6-4
Streak 5W 2L
Over / under record 76-81-9 74-86-10
Runs / game 4.85 5.04
Runs allowed / game 3.99 3.41



Tonight we have game three of the NLCS as the Atlanta Braves travel to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers. The Braves come into this game with a 2-0 series lead as the Dodgers weren't able to steal a game in Atlanta. The pitching has been good for both teams so far in this series and hitters are coming through with timely hits when it matters. The Dodgers will need a solid outting from Walker Buehler to get back into this series.

The Braves come into this game in very good form winning 5 straight. Their pitching really stepped up in the second half of the season and it's apparent that they continued that form into the playoffs. They also boast a dangerous lineup up and down the order and have been able to cut down on the strikeouts at the plate. They will put experienced vet Charlie Morton on the mound in this one as they look to take a 3-0 series lead.

The Dodgers come into this game stumbling a bit as they dropped the first two games in Atlanta. They'll look to turn things around at home where they boast a 60-24 record this season. The pitching and offense has been good for the Dodgers in this series as they were in both games in Atlanta but just couldn't get it done. They'll be putting Walker Buehler on the mound and hope for a strong outting to get back in this series.


Pitching matchup


Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34 ERA) will be on the mound for the Braves when they take on the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Morton enters this game with a 3.46 XFIP and 1.04 WHIP, he also carries a 29% strikeout rate along with a 7.8% walk rate. Morton has made two appearances for the Braves this postseason, going 0-1, 3.86 ERA, and a 0.96 WHIP in 9.1 innings of work, both starts were against the Brewers. He has faced off with this Braves team twice this season, going 11 innings, 3 ER, and punching out 13 hitters. Morton is able to keep the ball down evidenced by his low 27.6% fly ball rate. He induces softer to medium contact and is able to keep hitters off balance with his elite curveball which has a 41% whiff rate. He will look to attack this Dodgers lineup and help his team take a 3-0 lead in the series.    


Walker Buehler (16-4, 2.47 ERA) will be on the bump for the Dodgers when they host the Braves. Buehler enters this game with a 3.76 XFIP and 0.97 WHIP, he also carries a 25.5% strikeout rate along with a 6.5% walk rate. Buehler has made two postseason starts so far, going 0-1, 3.38 ERA, and 1.13 WHIP in 10.2 innings of work against the Giants.  He comes into this game having faced this Braves team one time during the regular season where he went 7 innings, allowing 2 ER, while striking out 5. Buehler was once again elite this season as he has the strikeout stuff and he keeps the ball down while inducing poor hits and softer to medium contact to oppossing hitters. He will look to be on point tonight and get his Dodgers team back in this series.


I'll be looking to target the total in this one tonight. Both Morton and Buehler have been very good this season and they're both back by great bullpens. I'll take elite pitching over elite hitting everytime and that's the case for tonight. I see this being a close low scoring game til the end.

PICK: Under 7.5  (-115)

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