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MLB Picks Today: Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction - September 14, 2024

Introduction

The Atlanta Braves (80-67) host the Los Angeles Dodgers (87-60) at Truist Park on September 14, 2024, in a critical matchup that could have significant playoff implications for both teams. The Braves, currently third in the NL East, are battling to stay in the Wild Card race, while the Dodgers, leading the NL West, aim to maintain their division lead as the regular season winds down.

Atlanta is coming off a strong 6-2 win over the Dodgers in the series opener, and they'll look to build on that momentum in this game. With two elite pitchers on the mound—Chris Sale for the Braves and Jack Flaherty for the Dodgers—this game promises to be a tightly contested affair.

Odds Table

Team	Moneyline	Run Line	Over/Under
Los Angeles Dodgers (87-60)	+110	+1.5 (-200)	O 7.5 (-105)
Atlanta Braves (80-67)	-130	-1.5 (+165)	U 7.5 (-115)

Interpretation: The Braves are slight favorites at -130, indicating confidence in their chances at home. The run line of -1.5 (+165) suggests a close game, with the over/under set at 7.5, reflecting the expected low-scoring nature due to the strong starting pitchers. The Dodgers, while underdogs, are given a good chance to keep the game within one run.

Team Analysis

Atlanta Braves

The Braves enter this game with a solid 80-67 record, largely thanks to their strong home performance, where they hold a 41-31 record. Marcell Ozuna has been the key offensive force, leading the team with 37 home runs and 98 RBIs while batting .306. His consistent power hitting has anchored the Braves' lineup, which has been productive throughout the season.

On the mound, Chris Sale will start for Atlanta. Sale has been nothing short of spectacular this season, boasting a 16-3 record with a 2.38 ERA and 213 strikeouts over 166.2 innings. His ability to dominate hitters with his fastball-slider combination makes him a formidable opponent for any lineup, and his presence gives the Braves a significant advantage in this matchup.

Sale’s success has been bolstered by his ability to control the strike zone, as evidenced by his 1.00 WHIP. He has kept the walks to a minimum, allowing just 35 free passes all season. The Braves will be counting on Sale to neutralize the Dodgers' potent lineup and deliver another quality start.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers, despite their 87-60 record, have shown some vulnerability on the road, with a 39-33 away record. Shohei Ohtani continues to be the standout player, leading the team with 47 home runs, 104 RBIs, and a .290 batting average. Ohtani’s ability to change the game with one swing makes him a constant threat in the Dodgers' lineup.

Jack Flaherty will take the mound for Los Angeles. Flaherty has also had a stellar season, with a 12-6 record and a 2.86 ERA. Over 148 innings, he has struck out 180 batters while maintaining a 1.01 WHIP, showcasing his ability to limit baserunners and control the game. Flaherty’s high strikeout rate and low walk rate make him a tough opponent for the Braves.

The key for the Dodgers will be getting early run support for Flaherty, as facing Sale is no easy task. The Dodgers' lineup will need to capitalize on any mistakes Sale makes and find ways to manufacture runs, which has been a challenge against left-handed pitchers like Sale.

Starting Pitcher Analysis

Atlanta Braves - Chris Sale (LHP)

Chris Sale has been the ace of the Braves’ staff this season, and his numbers reflect that. With a 16-3 record and a 2.38 ERA, Sale has consistently dominated opposing lineups. His strikeout ability is elite, with 213 Ks in 166.2 innings, and his 1.00 WHIP indicates he rarely allows baserunners.

Sale’s fastball-slider combination has been devastating for hitters, and he has been particularly effective at home, where he seems to elevate his game. The Braves will rely on Sale to set the tone early and keep the Dodgers' powerful lineup in check.

Sale’s ability to avoid the long ball, having given up just 8 home runs all season, will be crucial in this game. If he can continue to limit hard contact and keep the Dodgers off balance, the Braves will have a great chance to win.

Los Angeles Dodgers - Jack Flaherty (RHP)

Jack Flaherty has been a reliable starter for the Dodgers, with a 12-6 record and a 2.86 ERA. His ability to dominate hitters with a mix of fastballs and off-speed pitches has made him one of the top pitchers in the league. Flaherty’s 180 strikeouts over 148 innings highlight his swing-and-miss stuff, and his 1.01 WHIP shows he limits baserunners effectively.

Flaherty’s biggest challenge will be navigating the Braves' lineup, which is packed with power hitters who can change the game with one swing. He’ll need to keep the ball down in the zone and avoid leaving pitches over the plate, where they can be punished.

If Flaherty can replicate his usual performance, the Dodgers will be in a strong position. However, facing a dominant pitcher like Sale means Flaherty will need to be nearly flawless to give the Dodgers a chance to win.

Recent Performance

Atlanta Braves

Date	Opponent	Result
9/13/24	vs LAD	W 6-2
9/11/24	@ WSH	L 5-1
9/10/24	@ WSH	W 12-0
9/9/24	vs CIN	L 1-0
9/8/24	vs TOR	W 4-3 F/11

The Braves have gone 3-2 in their last five games, with notable victories over the Dodgers and Nationals. Their pitching has been strong, particularly in the 12-0 win over Washington, but they have also struggled offensively at times, as seen in the 1-0 loss to Cincinnati. Atlanta will need to find consistency in their lineup to support Sale on the mound.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Date	Opponent	Result
9/13/24	@ ATL	L 6-2
9/11/24	vs CHC	W 10-8
9/10/24	vs CHC	L 6-3
9/9/24	vs CHC	L 10-4
9/8/24	vs CLE	W 4-0

The Dodgers are 2-3 in their last five games, with their offense performing inconsistently. They managed to put up 10 runs in a win against the Cubs but were held to just 2 runs in the series opener against the Braves. The Dodgers will need their lineup to step up against Sale, as they look to avoid dropping two straight games in this series.

Head-to-Head Comparison

The Braves and Dodgers have faced off several times this season, with both teams securing wins in tightly contested matchups. Atlanta’s recent victory gives them a 6-2 advantage in this series, showcasing their ability to compete against one of the league’s top teams.

In these head-to-head matchups, pitching has often been the deciding factor, with both teams featuring some of the best arms in the league. The Braves have managed to get the better of the Dodgers in recent meetings, thanks in part to their home-field advantage at Truist Park.

This game will likely follow a similar pattern, with both Sale and Flaherty looking to dominate on the mound. The team that can manufacture runs and capitalize on any mistakes will likely come out on top.

Against the Spread (ATS) Records

Atlanta Braves

The Braves have a 75-72 ATS record this season, reflecting their ability to cover the spread in close games. At home, they are 39-33 ATS, showing consistency when playing at Truist Park. As favorites, the Braves have a 54-44 ATS record, indicating they generally perform well when expected to win.

With Sale on the mound, the Braves are in a good position to cover the spread, especially if their offense can provide early run support. The key will be avoiding the defensive lapses and pitching struggles that have occasionally plagued them this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have a 73-74 ATS record this season, reflecting their struggles in covering the spread in some games. On the road, they are 34-38 ATS, showing inconsistency when playing away from Dodger Stadium. As underdogs, the Dodgers have a 19-22 ATS record, indicating their challenges when not favored to win.

Given the challenge of facing Sale, the Dodgers' chances of covering the spread are slim. However, if Flaherty can keep the game close, the Dodgers could potentially cover as road underdogs, particularly if the game remains a low-scoring affair.

Betting Stats and Trends

Atlanta Braves

• The Braves are 3-2 SU in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone under in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games.
• Atlanta is 7-3 SU in their last 10 home games.
• The Braves are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games against the Dodgers.
• Atlanta has covered the run line in 4 of their last 6 games.

Los Angeles Dodgers

• The Dodgers are 2-3 SU in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone under in 3 of Los Angeles's last 5 games.
• Los Angeles is 5-5 SU in their last 10 road games.
• The Dodgers are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.
• Los Angeles has covered the run line in 3 of their last 7 games.

Prediction