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MLB Over Under Picks: Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction - September 15, 2024

Introduction

The Atlanta Braves (81-67) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (87-61) face off at Truist Park on September 15, 2024, in a crucial matchup for both teams as they inch closer to the postseason. The Braves, currently tied for second in the NL East, have won the first two games of this series in dominant fashion, including a resounding 10-1 victory in their last outing. Meanwhile, the Dodgers, leaders of the NL West, are looking to snap a three-game road losing streak and regain their momentum as they push towards clinching their division.

This game features a pair of veteran right-handers on the mound: Walker Buehler for the Dodgers and Charlie Morton for the Braves. Both pitchers have experienced their share of struggles this season, which could lead to a higher-scoring game than typically expected from these two teams. With playoff implications on the line, expect an intense and competitive battle.

Odds Table

Team	Moneyline	Run Line	Over/Under
Los Angeles Dodgers (87-61)	-110	+1.5 (-175)	O 8.5 (-120)
Atlanta Braves (81-67)	-110	-1.5 (+145)	U 8.5 (+110)

Interpretation: The odds indicate a closely matched game, with both teams listed at -110 on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the potential for a higher-scoring game given the recent performances of the starting pitchers. The slight favor towards the over at -120 suggests that sportsbooks expect a fair amount of scoring in this contest.

Team Analysis

Atlanta Braves

The Braves have been on a roll, winning two straight games against the Dodgers to improve their record to 81-67. Marcell Ozuna continues to be the offensive catalyst for Atlanta, leading the team with 37 home runs and 98 RBIs while batting .305. Ozuna’s power, combined with contributions from players like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley, gives the Braves a formidable lineup capable of putting up runs in bunches.

On the mound, Charlie Morton will get the start for Atlanta. Morton has had a mixed season, posting an 8-8 record with a 4.11 ERA over 149 innings. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance, Morton has struggled with consistency, particularly with his control, as evidenced by his 57 walks this season. However, Morton’s experience and ability to pitch in big games could be a crucial factor for the Braves in this matchup.

Morton will need to keep the Dodgers' potent lineup in check and avoid giving up the long ball, which has been an issue for him this season with 21 home runs allowed. If he can limit damage early and the Braves' offense continues to produce, Atlanta will be in a strong position to secure another victory.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers enter this game looking to bounce back from a rough stretch that has seen them drop three straight games on the road. Despite their recent struggles, Los Angeles remains a dangerous team with Shohei Ohtani leading the way. Ohtani has been phenomenal, belting 47 home runs, driving in 104 RBIs, and maintaining a .289 batting average. His ability to change the game with one swing makes him a constant threat.

Walker Buehler takes the mound for the Dodgers, and he’s had a challenging season. Buehler’s 1-5 record and 5.95 ERA over 59 innings tell the story of a pitcher who has struggled to find his form. He’s been prone to giving up big innings, partly due to allowing 15 home runs and carrying a 1.64 WHIP. The Dodgers will need Buehler to step up in this game and give them a quality start to avoid a series sweep.

Given Buehler’s struggles, the Dodgers' offense may need to carry the load. They’ll look to get to Morton early and take advantage of any mistakes he makes. The key for the Dodgers will be providing Buehler with enough run support to weather any potential rough patches on the mound.

Starting Pitcher Analysis

Atlanta Braves - Charlie Morton (RHP)

Charlie Morton has been a mainstay in the Braves’ rotation, but his performance has been inconsistent this season. With an 8-8 record and a 4.11 ERA, Morton has had games where he’s looked sharp and others where he’s struggled to find the strike zone. His 1.32 WHIP and 57 walks indicate that control has been an issue, which could be problematic against a patient Dodgers lineup.

Morton’s strength lies in his experience and ability to pitch in high-pressure situations. He’s proven that he can rise to the occasion in big games, and the Braves will need that version of Morton to show up in this critical matchup. If Morton can limit his walks and keep the ball in the park, he’ll give the Braves a solid chance to win.

The Braves' bullpen has been reliable, but they’ve been used heavily in recent games. A deep outing from Morton would not only put Atlanta in a position to win but also provide some much-needed rest for their relievers.

Los Angeles Dodgers - Walker Buehler (RHP)

Walker Buehler’s 2024 season has been a struggle, with a 1-5 record and a 5.95 ERA over 59 innings. His WHIP of 1.64 is concerning, as it indicates he’s allowing too many baserunners, often leading to big innings for the opposition. Buehler’s main issue has been his inability to keep the ball in the park, having given up 15 home runs in limited action.

Buehler’s stuff is still there, but his command has been inconsistent, leading to high pitch counts and early exits. The Dodgers need him to find his groove quickly, as they cannot afford another short outing from their starter. Buehler will need to focus on keeping the ball down in the zone and mixing his pitches to keep the Braves off balance.

If Buehler can manage to deliver a quality start, the Dodgers' powerful offense might just be able to outslug the Braves and secure a much-needed win. However, given his season-long struggles, this is far from a certainty.

Recent Performance

Atlanta Braves

Date	Opponent</ th>	Result
9/14/24	vs LAD	W 10-1
9/13/24	vs LAD	W 6-2
9/11/24	@ WSH	L 5-1
9/10/24	@ WSH	W 12-0
9/9/24	vs CIN	L 1-0

The Braves have gone 3-2 in their last five games, with their most recent victories over the Dodgers being particularly impressive. Their offense has shown up in a big way, scoring 16 runs in the last two games against Los Angeles. However, their lineup has also been shut down at times, as seen in their losses to Washington and Cincinnati. Consistency will be key as they look to continue their success against the Dodgers.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Date	Opponent	Result
9/14/24	@ ATL	L 10-1
9/13/24	@ ATL	L 6-2
9/11/24	vs CHC	W 10-8
9/10/24	vs CHC	L 6-3
9/9/24	vs CHC	L 10-4

The Dodgers are in a slump, losing four of their last five games, including two straight to the Braves. Their pitching has been a major concern, allowing 32 runs in these games, which has put immense pressure on their offense. The Dodgers will need both Buehler and their lineup to step up if they want to avoid a series sweep and get back on track.

Head-to-Head Comparison

This season, the Braves have had the upper hand in their matchups against the Dodgers, winning six out of eight games. Atlanta’s recent dominance in this series, including their back-to-back victories, has shown their ability to outplay Los Angeles in crucial moments. The Braves have capitalized on their home-field advantage and have consistently found ways to score against the Dodgers' pitching staff.

In these head-to-head games, offense has often been the deciding factor, with both teams possessing powerful lineups capable of putting up big numbers. The Braves have managed to get key hits when it matters most, which has been the difference in several close contests.

Against the Spread (ATS) Records

Atlanta Braves

The Braves have a 76-72 ATS record this season, indicating that they often perform well in close games. At home, they are 40-33 ATS, showcasing their ability to cover the spread at Truist Park. As slight favorites, the Braves have consistently delivered, with a 56-44 ATS record in games where they are expected to win.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have struggled against the spread this season, holding a 73-75 ATS record. On the road, they are 34-39 ATS, reflecting their inconsistency when playing away from home. As underdogs, the Dodgers have a 20-24 ATS record, highlighting their difficulties in covering the spread when not favored.

Betting Stats and Trends

Atlanta Braves

• The Braves are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games.
• Atlanta is 8-3 SU in their last 11 home games.
• The Braves are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games against the Dodgers.
• Atlanta has covered the run line in 5 of their last 7 games.

Los Angeles Dodgers

• The Dodgers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 6 games.
• Los Angeles is 5-6 SU in their last 11 road games.
• The Dodgers are 4-7 SU in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.
• Los Angeles has covered the run line in just 3 of their last 8 games.

Prediction