Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 29 (9/29): MLB

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 29 (9/29): MLB

 

Odds

Time 1:35 p.m. EST
Red Sox money line -160
Red Sox run line -1.5 (+125)
Orioles money line +134
Orioles run line +1.5 (-145)
Over / under 9

 

Key stats

  Boston Red Sox  Baltimore Orioles
Record 74-81 80-75
Home / road record 39-38 36-41
Last 10 record 4-6 4-6
Streak W2 L2
Over / under record 72-73-10 70-79-6
Runs / game 4.52 4.18
Runs allowed / game 4.80 4.18

 

Preview

The Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox will play 4th game of the series at the Fenway Park on Thursday. The Red Sox took the win again 3-1 in the third game of the series. Alex Verdugo homered and drove in two runs in Boston's second straight win. Abraham Almonte also went deep for his first homer of the season.

 

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox get here with a 74-81 record and have lost 6 of their last 8 games. The team is averaging 4.52 runs per game. They're batting for .257 AVG, 678 runs scored in 1328 hits and 141 home runs, ranking #10 in offense in the league, behind the Toronto Blue Jays. Rafael Devers is leading the team with 27 home runs and 84 RBI, batting for .289 AVG.

Defensively they are allowing 4.80 runs per game and rank #24 in the league. Nick Pivetta leads the team with 10 wins recorded with a 4.35 ERA and 160 strikeouts

Probable Pitcher:  Nathan Eovaldi (5-3, 4.15 ERA)

Eovaldi will be on the mound in the 4th game of the series for Boston. The 32-year-old is rejoining the Boston rotation after completing a three-inning rehab start at Triple-A Worcester last weekend, so he'll likely be on a more limited pitch count than usual when he takes the mound Thursday. He has a record of 8-2 with an ERA of 3.29 and 87 strikeouts in 17 appearances versus the Orioles in his career.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles get here with a 80-75 record and have lost 4 of their last 5 games. The team is averaging 4.18 runs per game. They're batting for .236 AVG, 576 runs scored in 1085 hits and 146 home runs, ranking #21 in offense in the league behind the Cincinnati Reds. Anthony Santander leads the team with 27 home runs, 79 RBI and Cedric Mullins is batting for an average of .264.

Defensively they are allowing 4.16 runs per game and rank #10 in the league. Jordan Lyles leads the pitching staff with a 4.70 ERA, 129 strikeouts and 10 wins recorded.

Probable Pitcher:  Mike Baumann (1-3, 4.32 ERA)

Baumann will be on the mound in the 4th game of the series for the Orioles. He'll be getting his second straight turn through the rotation after working four innings and allowing two earned runs on three hits and two walks in a no-decision versus Houston last weekend. 

 

BETTING TRENDS

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games.

Baltimore are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.

Baltimore are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Boston.

Boston are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games at home.

Boston are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games when playing at home against Baltimore.

 

Prediction

The Orioles offense was shutdown by Rich Hill and the Red Sox bullpen in the 3rd game of the series as they could only scored 1 run in the game. Mike Baumann will start for the Orioles who will make his third start of the season and has allowed 2 and 3 runs in those starts. The Red Sox will send Nathan Eovaldi to the mound who hasn't pitched since August 12 and will be limited in pitches. With that being said I expect a high scoring game this time. In the last 10 head to head games they have combined for 12.2 runs per game. Take the over.

PICK: Over 9 (-110)

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