Astros vs Red Sox Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 20 (10/20): MLB

Astros vs Red Sox Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 20 (10/20): MLB

Credit: photo by Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 5:08 p.m. EST
Astros money line +102
Astros run line +1.5 (-180)
Red Sox money line -122
Red Sox run line -1.5 (+155)
Over / under 9.5 (-110)

 

Key stats
  Astros Red Sox
Record 100-70 98-73
Road / home record 46-39 53-33
Last 10 record 7-3 7-3
Streak 1W 1L
Over / under record 93-70-7 80-86-4
Runs / game 5.37 5.21
Runs allowed / game 4.15 4.61

 

Preview

Tonight we have game 5 of the ALCS with the Boston Red Sox hosting the Houston Astros. Lastnight the Astros bats finally came alive in this series as they exploded in the 9th inning for 7 runs and ended up wining the game 9-2.  The Astros didn't get to Pivetta like I thought they would but still were able to come out on top. Greinke struggled for the Astros but the bulpen was able to come in and shut the Red Sox down for most of the game. It'll be another nice one in Boston for game 5 tonight.

The Astros were able to even up the series lastnight with a big late inning push to win 9-2. Tonight they'll get to face off against left hander Chris Sale for the second time in this series. The Astros will need to use that late inning explosion to roll over into this game if they want to go back to Houston for game 6 with a 3-2 lead in the series.

The Red Sox were close to coming into this game today with a 3-1 lead in the series but their bullpen failed them late in the game lastnight. Tonight they get to face left hander Framber Valdez for a second time in this series.  They will hope that Chris Sale is on point today for them to head to Houston with a 3-2 lead in this series.

 

 

Pitching matchup

Astros

Framber Valdez (11-6, 3.14 ERA) will be on the mound for the Astros tonight when they take on the Red Sox in Boston.  Valdez enters this game with a 3.88 XFIP and 1.25 WHIP, he also carries a 21.9% strikeout rate along with a 10.7% walk rate this season. Valdez has made 2 starts in the postseason this year, going 0-0, 7.71 ERA, 2.43 WHIP, in 7 innings of work against both the White Sox in the ALDS and this Red Sox team in game 1 of this series. In game 1 Valdez allowed 2 earned runs while walking 3 and allowing 6 hits in 2.2 innings of work. He was very succesful both times he faced this Red Sox team during the regular season. Valdez leads the league in ground ball rate which sits above 70% for the season. He has had success this year despite the high walk rate because of his ability to get groundballs which in turn helps with turning double plays and getting out of jams without allowing too much damage. He allows some medium to hard contact on balls hit in play but most of the time its on the ground. As with every ground ball pitcher Valdez will need to be a little lucky in this matchup if he wants to help his team pick up another win before heading back to Houston for game 6.

Red Sox

Chris Sale (5-1, 3.16 ERA) will be on the bump for the Red Sox tonight when they host the Astros. Sale enters this game with a 3.39 XFIP and 1.34 WHIP, he also carries a 26.1% strikeout rate along with a 6.5% walk rate this season. This will be Sale's third start this postseason as he has gone 0-0, 14.73 ERA, 3.00 WHIP in only 3.2 innings of work against both the Rays and Astros. In game 1 when he faced this Astros team he allowed 1 earned run, on 5 hits, in 2.2 innings. Sale still has yet to find his elite stuff he once had when he was one of the top arms in the league. He came back from injury late in the year and has been good but not as good as poeple remember. He has been giving up contact and power to right handed hitters in the split this season, he has dominated lefties all season. He will need to find some extra stuff in the bag today if he wants his team to head back to Houston with a 1 game lead in the series.

Prediction

I'll be going all in on the Astros to pick up another win as I think their late innings explosion last night rolls over into today and they pick up an easy win. Sale has been somewhat a shell of himself and I think him and this Boston bullpen could be in for a long game.

PICK: Astros ML  (+102)

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