Astros vs Red Sox Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 19 (10/19): MLB

Astros vs Red Sox Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 19 (10/19): MLB

Credit: photo by Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

Time 8:08 p.m. EST
Astros money line +105
Astros run line +1.5 (-170)
Red Sox money line -125
Red Sox run line -1.5 (+145)
Over / under 10 (-105)


Key stats
  Astros Red Sox
Record 99-70 98-72
Road / home record 45-39 53-32
Last 10 record 6-4 8-2
Streak 2L 2W
Over / under record 92-70-7 80-86-4
Runs / game 5.37 5.21
Runs allowed / game 4.15 4.61



Tonight we have game four of the ALCS with the Boston Red Sox hosting the Houston Astros. The Red Sox dominated in game three winning 12-3 as the bats have now shown up in a major way the past 2 games. Houston was supposed to have the upper hand when it came to the pitching department in this series but the Red Sox are proving otherwise through the first 3 games.

The Astros enter this game after dropping 2 out out 3 to start the series. They got pummled last night and game 2 was similar as they've been outscored 21-8 in those two games. They'll need to get the bats going in a good matchup against Nick Pivetta who has been average this season. They'll put slow throwing veteran Zach Grienke on the mound and look to even this series up.

The Red Sox enter this game in very good form as they have been putting runs up in bunches the previous two games. They'll look to continue that tonight against an average pitcher in Zach Greinke. They'll be putting Nick Pivetta on the mound who will be making his first ever postseason start tonight, his two appearances out of the bullpen this season have been good. Boston will look to swing the sticks once again tonight and go up 3-1 in the series.



Pitching matchup


Zach Greinke (11-6, 4.16 ERA) will be on the mound for the Astros tonight when they take on the Red Sox in Boston. Greinke enters this game with a 4.48 XFIP and 1.17 WHIP, he also carries a 17.2% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate. This will be his first start this postseason as he did pitch an inning in relief. He enters with plenty of postseason experience, going 4-6, 4.18 ERA, and 1.19 WHIP in 107.2 innings of work in his 20 postseason appearances (19 starts). He has faced off against this Red Sox team one time during the regualr season and it wasn't good as he allowed 4 earned runs in only 3 innings of work. Greinke has had some reverse splits this season as right handed hitters have been getting to him for both contact and power in the split. He does benefit from inducing a solid amount of poor contact to hitters and has been able to keep the ball down against left handed batters, evidenced by his 56.6% ground ball rate in the split. Greinke isn't who he once was and could be in for a rough outting against a hot Red Sox team that has been swinging the sticks well the past two games.

Red Sox

Nick Pivetta (9-8, 4.53 ERA) will be on the bump for the Red Sox when they host the Astros. Pivetta enters this game with a 4.47 XFIP and 1.30 WHIP, he also carries a 26.8% strikeout rate along with a 9.7% walk rate. Pivetta has made 2 appearances out of the bullpen this postseason going 1-0, 3.12 ERA, and 1.15 WHIP in 8.2 innings of work. Coming into this game he has faced this Houston team one time during the regular season where he struck out 9 hitters in 6 innings of work, while allowing 2 earned runs. Pivetta has been average this season as he allows some contact and power to both sides of the plate, though his splits do suggest he is a reverse split pitcher as right handed hitters have had more success against him. He is capable of going out and racking up the strikeouts like we saw in his only appearance against this Astros team last time out.  He will look to keep things rolling tonight and help Boston take a 3-1 series lead. 


I'll be going with the road dog in this one as I think the Astros have the better matchup against Pivetta. The Astros bats are going to wake up at some point and put up runs like the Red Sox did lastnight and I think we could see that happen tonight. Greinke hasn't been elite or anything but I do believe he can do enough to slow down this Red Sox lineup a bit.

PICK: Astros ML  (+105)

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