Astros vs Red Sox Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 18 (10/18): MLB

Astros vs Red Sox Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 18 (10/18): MLB

Credit: photo by Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Time 8:08 p.m. EST
Astros money line -103
Astros run line +1.5 (-185)
Red Sox money line -117
Red Sox run line -1.5 (+160)
Over / under 9 (-115)


Key stats
  Astros Red Sox
Record 99-69 97-72
Road / home record 45-38 52-32
Last 10 record 7-3 8-2
Streak 1L 1W
Over / under record 91-70-7 79-86-4
Runs / game 5.38 5.17
Runs allowed / game 4.10 4.62



Tonight we have game three of the ALCS with the Boston Red Sox hosting the Houston Astros. The Red Sox were able to tie up the series on Saturday 1-1 with a very nice offensive performance winning 9-5. This is a a best of seven series. This will be a wild series to the end as both these teams have something to prove when looking back at the cheating scandal that was going on. I expect plenty of fireworks in all these games.

The Astros enter this game after dropping game two 9-5. They enter this game with good history in the last 2 meetings against left hander Eduardo Rodriguez during the regular season, putting up a total of 12 earned runs in those meetings. They will look to continue to put runs on the board tonight and once again get to E-rod and face this Boston bullpen.

Boston comes into this series after tying it up 1-1 with a 9-5 win on Saturday. They come back to Boston with some momentum after a good offensve performance last game. They will get to face off against Jose Urquidy who will be making his first postseason apperance tonight. They should also be in a prime spot to continue putting up runs as both these offenses have outperformed both sides of the pitching.


Pitching matchup


Jose Urquidy (8-3, 3.62 ERA) will be on the mound for the Astros tonight when they take on the Red Sox in Boston. This will be Urquidy's first apperance this postseason, though he does come in with some postseason experience, going 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his 8 appearances. Uruidy enters this game with a 4.68 XFIP and 0.99 WHIP. This season he carries a 21.4% strikeout rate along with a low 4.5% walk rate. Urquidy has been pretty solid this season though his numbers suggest some regression could hit at anytime. He faced off once against this Red Sox team during the regular season, going six innings, striking out nine and allowing one earned run. Urquidy will have his hands full tonight as this Red Sox team has been good at home and they enter this game with a combined .220 ISO and .350 wOBA against right handed pitching this season.   

Red Sox

Eduardo Rodriguez (13-8, 4.74 ERA) will be on the bump for the Red Sox when they host the Astros. Rodriguez will be making his third postseason appearance tonight. In his first two outtings against the Rays in the ALDS he went 6.2 innings, allowing 4 earned runs, while striking out 7. His first start didn't go well as he allowed 2 earned runs in 1.2 innings of work. Rodriguez enters this game with a 3.62 XFIP and 1.39 WHIP. This season he carries a 27% strikeout rate along with a 7% walk rate. Rodriguez has faced off against this Astros team twice during the regular season and they were not good. He went 9.1 innnings, allowing 12 earned runs, while striking out 9, he was lit up for 6 earned runs in each outting. Rodriguez was very good in the second half for Boston but has struggled some in the postseason. He will look to improve greatly this third time around against this loaded Astros team. 


I'll be looking to target the total here as both these offenses should be able to produce some runs through out this whole game. Urgquidy is due to regress some and this will be his first appearance this postseason and it will be in a hostile environment. I want to feel confident that Rodriguez can get it together tonight but I just don't see it happening against this Astros squad that have gotten to him both times this season.

PICK: Over 9  (-115)

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