Angels vs Padres Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 7 (9/7): MLB

Angels vs Padres Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 7 (9/7): MLB

Credit: photo by Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 10:10 p.m. EST
Angels money line +260
Angels run line +1.5 (+140)
Padres money line -320
Padres run line -1.5 (-160)
Over / under 7.5 (-115)

 

Key stats
  Angels Padres
Record 68-70 73-64
Road / home record 31-36 43-30
Last 10 record 5-5 5-5
Streak 2L 2W
Over / under record 75-62-1 70-62-5
Runs / game 4.50 4.62
Runs allowed / game 4.99 4.08

 

Preview

The Angels will head to San Diego to take on the Padres in a 2 game series.  The Angels enter this game with not much hope for a playoff spot as they sit 10 games back in the AL wildcard.  San Diego enters this game having a 1 game lead for the 2nd NL wildcard spot over the Reds.  The Padres will have a good chance to strengthen their lead in the wildcard against an inexperienced pitcher for the Angels.

Pitching matchup

Angels

Packy Naughton (0-1, 4.00 ERA) will be on the mound tonight against the Padres.  He enters this game with a 1.78 WHIP and 6.30 XFIP.  In the limited sample he carries a 9.3% strikeout rate and high 11.6% walk rate.  In his 3 appearances in the big leagues this year he has thrown 9 innings, allowing 4 ER's, walking 5, and striking out 4 hitters. Naughton has been decent in his outtings so far this season and hasn't run into any problems just yet, but a low strikeout rate and high walk rate is not a very good recipe for success.  He had success in his last outting against the Padres throwing 4.1 innings of shut out ball. The lefty will look to pick up up his 1st win tonight against the Padres.

Padres

Blake Snell (7-5, 4.31 ERA) will be on the bump for their game against the Angels.  Snell enters this game with a 1.38 WHIP and 4.06 XFIP.  This season he carries a nice 31.4% strikeout rate paired with a high 12.9% walk rate.  Snell was on an absolute tear in the month of August, going 3-1 in 6 starts while throwing 36.2 innings, striking out 54 hitters, walking 12, and allowing only 7 ER's.  He held opposing hitters to a .151 average and had a 0.84 WHIP in that span of games. He will look to continue his dominance against a weak Angels lineup and pick up his 8th win of the season. 

Prediction

Naughton and his walk issues are going to burn him at some point this year and I think it happens today.  The Padres should be able to take advantage of an inexperienced pitcher and have plenty of opportunities to put runs on the board.  Blake Snell has been electric over his last 5 starts,  although this Angels team doesn't strikeout a ton this year so I could see the Angels picking up some walks and knocking a few runs in tonight.

PICK: Over 7.5 (-115)

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