2024 MLB Home Run Derby Prediction and Odds
- Lm Tipster
- Jul 15, 2024, 9:53:21 AM
© Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
2024 MLB Home Run Derby Prediction
The 2024 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is almost here, and fans are eagerly anticipating the showdown at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The field is set with some of the biggest names in MLB ready to compete on July 15. Here, we break down the odds for each player and provide our predictions for who will shine in this year's event.
Outright Winner Odds
| Player | 2024 HR Count | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (New York Mets) | 19 | +340 |
| Marcell Ozuna (Atlanta Braves) | 26 | +400 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (Kansas City Royals) | 16 | +475 |
| Adolis Garcia (Texas Rangers) | 17 | +500 |
| Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore Orioles) | 28 | +500 |
| Teoscar Hernandez (Los Angeles Dodgers) | 19 | +950 |
| Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Guardians) | 23 | +1300 |
| Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies) | 11 | +1600 |
Longest Home Run Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +145 |
| Marcell Ozuna | +360 |
| Pete Alonso | +450 |
| Gunnar Henderson | +900 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | +1100 |
| Adolis Garcia | +1100 |
| Jose Ramirez | +1300 |
| Alec Bohm | +1700 |
Most Home Runs in Round 1 Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | +360 |
| Marcell Ozuna | +425 |
| Gunnar Henderson | +500 |
| Adolis Garcia | +500 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +550 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | +850 |
| Jose Ramirez | +950 |
| Alec Bohm | +1000 |
Player Analysis
Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
2024 home runs: 28 | Longest: 430 feet
Gunnar Henderson is having an outstanding season with 28 home runs already, showing significant improvement in his power game. His home run-to-fly ball ratio is an impressive 32.1%, the highest in MLB, which makes him a strong contender in his first Home Run Derby appearance.
Pete Alonso, New York Mets
2024 home runs: 19 | Longest: 446 feet
Pete Alonso has a notable history in the Home Run Derby, having won the event in 2019 and 2021. Despite a somewhat down season with only 19 home runs so far, Alonso's experience and past performance in the Derby make him a favorite to watch.
Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves
2024 home runs: 26 | Longest: 446 feet
Marcell Ozuna has been a bright spot for the Braves this season, with 26 home runs. His barrel and hard-hit percentages are among the best, but his high whiff rate could be a challenge in the Derby's timed rounds.
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
2024 home runs: 16 | Longest: 468 feet
Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the longest home run among Derby participants this season at 468 feet. Known for his power and ability to square up the ball, Witt is a strong candidate to hit the longest home run in the competition.
Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers
2024 home runs: 17 | Longest: 428 feet
Adolis Garcia will enjoy home-field advantage during the Derby, which could work in his favor. His power is evident with a max exit velocity in the top 2% of MLB hitters, but his high chase and whiff percentages could hinder his performance.
Teoscar Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers
2024 home runs: 19 | Longest: 431 feet
Teoscar Hernandez has combined power and reduced strikeouts to become a breakout star this season. However, his still-high strikeout rate poses a risk, making him a potential boom-or-bust participant in the Derby.
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
2024 home runs: 23 | Longest: 436 feet
Jose Ramirez is known for his contact hitting but has demonstrated significant power this season. Despite his smaller stature and average bat speed, Ramirez could surprise with a consistent, line-drive approach.
Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
2024 home runs: 11 | Longest: 427 feet
Alec Bohm is having a breakout season, with improvements in fly ball, pull, and hard contact rates. However, his relatively low home run total and ISO may not be enough to compete with the other power hitters in the Derby.
Predictions:
Gunnar Henderson to win the 2024 Home Run Derby +500
Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles is having an incredible season, making him our top pick to win the 202 4 Home Run Derby. With 28 home runs so far this season, Henderson has shown an impressive ability to hit the ball out of the park. His home run-to-fly ball ratio has soared to an MLB-leading 32.1%, demonstrating that he capitalizes on every opportunity to drive the ball deep. Although this is his first Home Run Derby, Henderson's consistent power and ability to adapt make him a formidable contender.
Bobby Witt Jr. Will Hit the Longest Home Run +145
Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals is the favorite to hit the longest home run in this year's Derby. Witt has already launched a 468-foot home run this season, the fourth-longest in MLB. His average home run distance of 418 feet ranks highest among the Derby participants. Witt's raw power and ability to hit mammoth shots make him the best bet to clear the fences with the longest blast on Derby night.
Gunnar Henderson Will Hit the Most Home Runs in Round 1 +500
Despite Pete Alonso's impressive track record in the Home Run Derby, Gunnar Henderson is poised to hit the most home runs in Round 1. Henderson's efficiency and power this season have been unmatched, as evidenced by his league-leading home run-to-fly ball ratio. With the new Derby format placing an emphasis on efficiency, Henderson's ability to maximize each swing will give him an edge over the competition in the opening round.
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