Introduction

The New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers face off in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card series at American Family Field. Both teams had successful seasons, with the Brewers finishing at 93-69 and the Mets at 89-73. However, the Mets might be at a disadvantage after playing a doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves on September 30, just one day before the start of this series. 

Odds Table

Interpretation: Milwaukee is favored at -145, with the Mets as +120 underdogs. The total is set at 7.5, with the under slightly favored at -120, suggesting the expectation of a low-scoring game, likely due to the strong pitching matchup between Freddy Peralta and Luis Severino.

Team Analysis

New York Mets

The Mets had a solid 89-73 season, finishing third in the competitive NL East. Their offense, led by Pete Alonso’s 34 home runs and Francisco Lindor’s 33 home runs and 91 RBIs, has been productive, but their consistency at the plate has varied throughout the year. Fatigue may also play a role, as the Mets will have had little rest after playing a doubleheader against the Braves on September 30, just one day before the start of this Wild Card series.

On the mound, Luis Severino is expected to start. While his postseason stats are unavailable, Severino has had success when healthy, and his ability to pitch deep into games will be critical against a dangerous Brewers lineup. However, the combination of fatigue and facing Freddy Peralta on the road could be challenging for New York.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers finished atop the NL Central with a 93-69 record, thanks in large part to their pitching staff, which boasts a 3.65 team ERA. Offensively, Willy Adames has been a key contributor with 32 home runs and 112 RBIs, while William Contreras has hit .281 with a .365 OBP, providing consistent production. The Brewers have been strong at home, finishing with a 47-34 record at American Family Field.

Freddy Peralta will start for Milwaukee, and he’s been one of the team’s most reliable pitchers. Peralta’s ability to rack up strikeouts and limit walks has made him a formidable presence on the mound. With the Mets potentially tired from their recent schedule, Peralta is in a good position to take control of Game 1.

Starting Pitcher Analysis

Luis Severino (NYM)

Luis Severino has the talent to be a game-changer for the Mets, but his recent injury history raises concerns about his ability to go deep into games. When healthy, Severino has shown excellent command of his fastball and slider, but the Brewers’ patient hitters could force him to work hard early. Severino will need to keep Milwaukee’s sluggers off-balance to give the Mets a chance in this matchup.

Freddy Peralta (MIL)

Freddy Peralta has been a crucial part of the Brewers’ rotation all season, using his electric fastball and sharp breaking pitches to dominate opponents. Peralta’s ability to generate strikeouts will be key against a Mets lineup that can be prone to striking out. With Milwaukee’s bullpen behind him, Peralta will look to limit the Mets’ offense and put the Brewers in a strong position to take Game 1.

Recent Performance

New York Mets

• 9/29/24: Won 5-0 @ Brewers
• 9/28/24: Lost 6-0 @ Brewers
• 9/27/24: Lost 8-4 @ Brewers
• 9/24/24: Lost 5-1 @ Braves
• 9/22/24: Won 2-1 vs. Phillies

The Mets finished the regular season with a 2-3 record in their last five games, including two losses to the Brewers. While their offense has shown flashes, they’ve struggled to put together consistent performances. The doubleheader against Atlanta could further tax their bullpen and lineup heading into this Wild Card matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers

• 9/29/24: Lost 5-0 vs. Mets
• 9/28/24: Won 6-0 vs. Mets
• 9/27/24: Won 8-4 vs. Mets
• 9/26/24: Won 5-2 @ Pirates
• 9/25/24: Lost 2-1 @ Pirates

Milwaukee ended the season with three wins in their last five games, including a pair of victories over the Mets. Their pitching staff has been dominant, allowing just six runs over their last four wins. With their pitching in top form and the Mets potentially fatigued, the Brewers are in a favorable position to open the series with a win.

Head-to-Head Comparison

The Brewers won four of the seven games they played against the Mets in the regular season, including two out of three in their recent series at American Family Field. Milwaukee’s pitching has been the difference-maker in most of these contests, limiting the Mets’ offense and capitalizing on key scoring opportunities. This trend is likely to continue in Game 1, especially with the Mets coming off a doubleheader against the Braves.

Against the Spread (ATS) Records

New York Mets

The Mets are 80-82 ATS this season, struggling to cover as road underdogs. With a fatigued bullpen and potentially tired starters, the Mets may have difficulty covering the spread against a well-rested Brewers team.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are 89-73 ATS in 2024 and have consistently covered as home favorites. Milwaukee’s ability to keep games low-scoring and take advantage of fatigued opponents makes them an attractive pick to cover the spread in Game 1.

Betting Stats and Trends

• The Brewers are 7-2 in their last nine home games.
• The under is 6-3 in Milwaukee’s last nine games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets are 3-7 in their last 10 games as road underdogs.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in four of their last five games as home favorites.
• The under has hit in four of the last six meetings between the Mets and Brewers.

Prediction