Kingpin analysis
UFC 316 Predictions: Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer, June 7, 2025
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 - Middleweight Showdown: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe "Bodybagz" Pyfer
As the main card of UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 electrifies the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, on June 7, 2025, a compelling middleweight clash is set to unfold. Former interim title challenger Kelvin Gastelum will face the powerful rising contender Joe "Bodybagz" Pyfer in a bout that promises high stakes and heavy exchanges.
Fighter Backgrounds
Kelvin Gastelum
Kelvin Gastelum (20-9-0), representing Fight Ready in the USA, is a seasoned veteran in the middleweight division, known for his boxing skills, durability, and relentless pressure. A former Ultimate Fighter winner and interim title challenger, Gastelum has faced a who's who of the sport's elite, with 6 TKO/KO wins and 6 submissions.
Joe Pyfer
Joe "Bodybagz" Pyfer (13-3-0), fighting out of Marquez MMA in the USA, is a powerful and explosive middleweight on the rise. With 9 TKO/KO wins and 3 submissions, Pyfer lives up to his "Bodybagz" moniker, consistently looking for devastating finishes. A Dana White's Contender Series alum, he has quickly made a name for himself with his aggressive style.
Fighting Styles and Strengths
Kelvin Gastelum
- Elite Boxing: Gastelum possesses sharp boxing combinations, good head movement, and powerful hooks.
- Durability and Chin: He has a notoriously tough chin and is incredibly difficult to finish.
- Strong Wrestling Base: Coming from a wrestling background, he can mix in takedowns when needed.
Joe Pyfer
- Explosive Power: Pyfer carries fight-ending power in both hands, particularly his right hand.
- Aggressive Pressure: He comes forward with bad intentions, looking to land damaging shots and overwhelm opponents.
- Finishing Instinct: With a high percentage of wins by knockout, he consistently hunts for the finish.
Recent Performances
Kelvin Gastelum
Kelvin Gastelum is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Daniel Rodriguez in June 2024. This win followed a submission loss to Sean Brady in December 2023. Prior to that, he secured a unanimous decision win over Chris Curtis in April 2023, showcasing his ability to bounce back.
Joe Pyfer
Joe Pyfer recently bounced back into the win column with a first-round TKO victory over Marc-Andre Barriault in June 2024. This followed his unanimous decision loss to Jack Hermansson in February 2024, his first UFC defeat. Before that, he had an impressive submission win over Abdul Razak Alhassan in October 2023 and a first-round KO over Gerald Meerschaert in April 2023.
Odds and Betting Information
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | +300 |
| Joe Pyfer | -400 |
Joe Pyfer is the favorite in this middleweight clash with odds around -400, while Kelvin Gastelum is the underdog at approximately +300. The recommended pick for this fight is Joe Pyfer at -380, which aligns with the current market.
Keys to Victory
Kelvin Gastelum
- Volume and Footwork: Gastelum needs to utilize his boxing combinations and lateral movement to avoid Pyfer's power.
- Body Shots: Target the body to drain Pyfer's gas tank and potentially slow his power.
- Wrestling Threats: Mix in takedown attempts to keep Pyfer honest and disrupt his striking rhythm.
Joe Pyfer
- Land Early and Hard: Pyfer's best path to victory is to connect with his devastating power early in the fight.
- Cut Off the Cage: Force Gastelum into positions where he can't escape the striking exchanges easily.
- Exploit Openings: Look for opportunities to land clean shots as Gastelum comes forward or exits exchanges.
Prediction
This middleweight bout pits a veteran gatekeeper against a rising prospect with undeniable power. Kelvin Gastelum, despite his incredible chin and boxing skills, has been in numerous wars and has shown some vulnerability to dynamic strikers and powerful grapplers. Joe Pyfer, while still relatively new to the top tier, possesses explosive one-shot knockout power that can change a fight in an instant.
Pyfer's height and reach advantage, coupled with his aggressive finishing instincts, will pose a significant threat to Gastelum. While Gastelum has the experience and durability to make it a tough fight, Pyfer's current momentum and ability to finish fights decisively could be the difference. Pyfer's last fight saw him secure a quick TKO, showing he's learned from his sole UFC loss.
Prediction: Joe Pyfer to win (-380). At -380, Joe Pyfer is a strong favorite, and for good reason. His knockout power and aggressive style are perfectly suited to challenging Gastelum, who, despite his toughness, has absorbed a lot of damage in his career. Pyfer has demonstrated that he can finish fights quickly, and his youth and power are likely to overwhelm the veteran. Expect "Bodybagz" to land significant strikes early and potentially find the knockout, or at least a dominant performance, to secure the win.
Kingpin PRO
Follow ranked bettors with tracked cards
This article is free analysis. PRO unlocks today’s verified bettor inventory and alerts.
Simulated results. Entertainment only. Gambling involves risk.Methodology and disclosure
Historical Kingpin articles preserve original body copy, authors, and publication dates. Structured pick or odds modules appear only when the source article provides them.
Kingpin PRO
Continue with Kingpin PRO
Transparent simulated records. Entertainment only.
Simulated results. Entertainment only. Gambling involves risk.Simulated results for entertainment. Gambling involves risk. Bet only where legal.