NCAA Women’s Final Four 2025 Betting Preview and Predictions

The 2025 NCAA Women’s Final Four features two exciting national semifinal matchups on Friday, April 4, 2025: Texas vs South Carolina and UConn vs UCLA. Both games offer intriguing storylines, star players, and betting angles. Below we break down each matchup with key players to watch, styles of play, recent performance, and our best bets – including against the spread picks, over/under leans, score predictions, and top player prop bets. Fans can also get more expert picks from top handicappers by downloading the Kingpin app on Android or iOS.

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Texas vs South Carolina (7:00 PM ET) – Odds: South Carolina -5.5, O/U 124.5

Texas and South Carolina clash in a heavyweight semifinal that pits two defensive powerhouses against each other. This is a rematch fourth meeting of the season now that Texas has joined the SEC – they split two regular-season games (each winning at home) and then South Carolina won the rubber match in the SEC Championship game. The Gamecocks are the defending national champions and are aiming for back-to-back titles (and their third in four years), while the Longhorns are making their first Final Four appearance under coach Vic Schaefer, who previously led Mississippi State to two title games. Expect an intense, physical battle with points at a premium.

Key players and styles: Texas leans on its two stars, point guard Rori Harmon and forward Madison Booker. Harmon is the floor general and defensive spark (returning strong after missing last year with an ACL injury), and Booker – the SEC Player of the Year – is the Longhorns’ go-to scorer and mid-range ace. Texas has tremendous size in the paint with Taylor Jones (6’4”) and Kyla Oldacre (6’6”) controlling the interior, and wing Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda provides length on defense. Coach Schaefer’s trademark is tenacious defense, and in this NCAA tournament Texas has smothered opponents – none have scored more than 61 against them so far. The Longhorns play physical, pack the paint, and dominate the boards (they’re among the nation’s best in offensive rebounding). However, one glaring weakness for Texas is outside shooting: they rarely rely on threes and have hit only 8 total three-pointers in four tournament games. This could make the Longhorns easier to guard if they fall behind, since their offense is mostly two-point oriented.

South Carolina doesn’t have a single superstar like in years past, but they boast unmatched depth and championship experience. Coach Dawn Staley comfortably rotates 10 players, making the Gamecocks extremely versatile. Forward Chloe Kitts has been a steady presence inside, and sophomore center Sania Feagin stepped up with 12 points and 8 rebounds in the Elite Eight win – a sign that she can fill the void left by last year’s dominant post presence. The most dynamic Gamecocks might actually come off the bench: freshman phenoms Joyce Edwards (12.7 PPG) and MiLaysia Fulwiley (11.9 PPG) are the team’s top scorers and provide instant offense and energy. Veteran guards Bree Hall and Oregon transfer Te-Hina Paopao contribute leadership in the backcourt, while Tessa Johnson (who hit big shots in last year’s title game) is another weapon Staley can deploy. South Carolina’s calling card is still defense – they are one of the nation’s top defensive units – but offensively they can attack in many ways due to their depth. In fact, seven different Gamecocks have led the team in scoring in various games this season, so they’re hard to game-plan against.

Recent form: Both teams survived tough roads to Tampa. South Carolina had to grind out close wins in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, edging Maryland 71-67 and then Duke 54-50 in a defensive slugfest. The Gamecocks showed their mettle in clutch moments despite not blowing teams out. Texas, meanwhile, stifled high-powered opponents like Tennessee (holding the Lady Vols to 59 points when they average 86+) and took down No. 2 seed TCU 58-47 in the Elite Eight with suffocating defense. Texas has struggled to score themselves (averaging just 63 PPG in the last three games), but their defense has carried them. Notably, Texas handed South Carolina one of its three losses back in early February by outmuscling the Gamecocks in a 64-60 upset despite not making a single 3-pointer in that game. South Carolina won the SEC title rematch 64-54 as their defense clamped down on Booker. In fact, in the three meetings this year, Texas never scored more than 64 and South Carolina never topped 71 – an indicator of the defensive struggle we might see again.

South Carolina does have the psychological edge of big-game experience: all five Gamecock starters have been to the Final Four before and own championship rings, so they won’t be rattled under the bright lights. Texas is in new territory, but they’ve shown no fear all season, breaking South Carolina’s long SEC win streak and proving they belong. The question will be whether Texas can generate enough offense against an elite defense, and whether South Carolina’s depth can wear down Texas over 40 minutes.

For more expert analysis and real-time picks on this matchup, download the Kingpin app on Android or iOS, where top handicappers are sharing their Final Four predictions.

Betting Picks & Predictions – Texas vs South Carolina:

• Spread Pick: South Carolina -5.5 – Back the defending champs to cover. The Gamecocks’ versatile offense and championship poise should help them pull away late. Texas will put up a fight with its defense, but South Carolina’s depth (and the adjustments from three prior meetings) give them the edge to win by around 6–8 points.

• Total Pick (124.5): Under 124.5 – Expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out battle. Both teams are elite defensively and have kept each other’s scores down in all their matchups this year. Neither side will want a fast pace. A final score in the low 60s or high 50s for each team is very plausible, which would land under the modest total.

• Top Player Prop: Madison Booker OVER 15.5 points – Texas will feed their star forward, and Booker has found her groove in the NCAA tournament (averaging nearly 19 PPG on 51% shooting in four games). South Carolina held her in check in previous meetings (she shot just 26% combined in those games), but Booker’s current form suggests she can at least get to the mid-teens. In a game where Texas needs offense, look for Booker to be aggressive and surpass this point total.

• Score Prediction: South Carolina 64, Texas 58 – A defensive struggle goes the Gamecocks’ way. This scoreline would have South Carolina covering the spread and the total finishing slightly under 124.5.

UConn vs UCLA (9:30 PM ET) – Odds: UConn -7.5, O/U 135.5

The nightcap features the perennial powerhouse Connecticut Huskies (UConn) against the up-and-coming UCLA Bruins in what could be a contrast of styles. UConn is a No. 2 seed but is arguably the hottest team in the tournament, while UCLA is the No. 1 overall seed making its first Final Four appearance in program history. This game will showcase star power galore: a legendary UConn senior versus a dominant UCLA sophomore, Hall-of-Fame coaching on one side versus National Coach of the Year on the other. It’s a classic battle of an explosive guard-oriented offense (UConn) against a towering post-powered attack (UCLA).

Key players and styles: All eyes are on UConn’s senior guard Paige Bueckers, who is on a mission to cap her college career with a national title. Bueckers has been sensational in this tournament – she’s posted three straight games of 25+ points, including a career-high 40 points in the Sweet 16 – and is the engine of a Huskies offense that has been nearly unstoppable when healthy. She’s not doing it alone, however. UConn boasts perhaps the best trio of scorers in the country: Bueckers, freshman forward Sarah Strong, and junior sharpshooter Azzi Fudd. Strong has been a revelation – the highly-touted freshman is averaging in the high teens and even as a 6’2” guard/forward she often defends opposing posts; her versatility is a nightmare matchup. Fudd, now fully healthy from her own knee injury, is bombing threes at a 48% clip in the tournament and stretches defenses to the breaking point. Thanks to this trio (plus contributions from players like Aaliyah Edwards in the paint and point guard Nika Mühl running the offense), UConn leads the nation in field goal percentage and points per possession. The Huskies move the ball beautifully (top 5 in assists) and rarely turn it over. They can play five-out with all shooters, which will be interesting against UCLA’s size. One concern for UConn is lack of interior size – their only true post over 6’3” plays limited minutes. UConn often uses Strong as a de facto big, which could be an issue dealing with UCLA’s 6’7” center.

UCLA’s attack revolves around Lauren Betts, the 6’7” sophomore center who has been dominant in her first season with the Bruins. Betts – a transfer who was the national Defensive Player of the Year – is averaging about 20 points, 9+ rebounds and 3+ blocks per game in postseason play. Coach Cori Close has built an offense that maximizes Betts’ impact: UCLA spreads the floor with shooters, forcing opponents to either double the post or get punished one-on-one. Betts has excellent touch around the rim with either hand and is adept at passing out of double-teams to find open teammates for three-point looks. Surrounding Betts are skilled guards and wings: junior point guard Kiki Rice is the floor general and playmaker, Gabriela Jaquez (also a junior) is a do-it-all wing who can slash to the basket or hit outside shots, and forward Timea Gardiner provides a three-point threat stretching from the power forward spot. This supporting cast proved their mettle in the Elite Eight when Betts sat with foul trouble – Rice, Jaquez, and Gardiner stepped up to knock off defending champion LSU 72-65. UCLA’s defense is also formidable; Betts protects the rim like few others, and the team collectively rebounds and rotates well. The Bruins can play fast or execute in the half court, though generally they prefer a methodical pace that lets Betts set up inside. The biggest question for UCLA is handling the moment – no player or coach on the roster has been to a Final Four before (unlike UConn, for whom this is familiar territory). Nerves could be a factor early on, but this veteran group (aside from Betts, many key players are upperclassmen) has shown composure so far.

Matchup outlook: This game sets up as a clash of strengths. UConn will look to push tempo and score in the 70s or 80s, relying on their superior perimeter play. UCLA will try to feed the post and exploit their height advantage, potentially slowing the game down to make it more of a half-court battle. Whichever team can dictate the style may prevail. UConn has not faced a post presence as imposing as Betts all year – how freshman Sarah Strong handles guarding Betts (with some help from 6’5” reserve Jana El Alfy) could be crucial. On the other side, UCLA hasn’t seen a backcourt as talented and deep as UConn’s. The Bruins will need to defend the three-point line and contain Bueckers’ penetration; Kiki Ricemay draw the tough assignment of guarding Bueckers, and she’ll get help from UCLA’s team defense. Expect UConn to try to pull Betts away from the basket whenever possible – Strong can shoot around 36% from three, which might draw Betts out and open driving lanes. Both teams are extremely well-coached: Geno Auriemma is chasing UConn’s first title since 2016 (after a long run of dominance), and Cori Close (the AP Coach of the Year) has led UCLA to a historic season. It’s a fascinating tactical matchup.

This semifinal is projected to be higher-scoring than the other, given UConn’s offensive firepower and the fact that UCLA can also put up points (the Bruins averaged 79 per game this year). In their last two games, UConn scored 88 and 80 points, showing they can light up even quality defenses. If the game turns into a shootout, that likely favors UConn. But if UCLA can control the tempo, pound the ball inside, and force UConn into a more physical half-court game, the Bruins could not only cover the spread but also pull the mild upset. It’s worth noting UConn and UCLA met early in the season, and UCLA dealt South Carolina one of its rare losses – evidence that the Bruins can handle elite opponents. This one could be a classic, and many experts are split on who will advance.

Betting Picks & Predictions – UConn vs UCLA:

• Spread Pick: UCLA +7.5 – Take the points in what should be a tightly contested game. While UConn is playing at an exceptionally high level, a 7.5-point spread is generous to an accomplished UCLA squad. The Bruins have the size and defensive chops to keep this close throughout. Even if UConn wins (as expected), UCLA’s balanced offense and ability to exploit UConn’s lack of interior depth should prevent a blowout. We see this being decided by only a few possessions.

• Total Pick (135.5): Over 135.5 – This matchup has the ingredients for a higher score. UConn pushes the pace and scores efficiently (the Huskies often reach 75+ points), and UCLA won’t shy away from a faster tempo if they can get good looks for their shooters or easy post feeds. Both teams have multiple offensive weapons and shoot a high percentage. Unless UCLA completely stalls the game to a crawl, the over looks attractive here – something in the 140s combined is quite feasible given the talent on the floor.

• Top Player Prop: Paige Bueckers OVER 24.5 points – Bueckers is on a tear and isn’t likely to slow down with the stakes this high. The Huskies star has scored 26, 39, and 40 in her last three games, carrying a huge offensive load. UCLA’s defense will key on her, but Bueckers can score at all three levels and will get her shots up (especially in a close game). In what could be her final college game, expect Paige to be ultra-aggressive. Clearing around 25 points is a reasonable ask given her current form and mindset.

• Score Prediction: UConn 74, UCLA 68 – The Huskies’ experience and offensive execution win out, but UCLA hangs tough. This projected outcome has UCLA covering the spread (+7.5) and the total hitting over 135.5. UConn advances in a hard-fought contest.

FAQ: 2025 NCAA Women’s Final Four

Q: When and where is the 2025 NCAA Women’s Final Four, and how can I watch it?
A: The Women’s Final Four takes place on Friday, April 4, 2025, at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. The national semifinal games are scheduled for 7:00 PM ET (Texas vs South Carolina) and approximately 9:30 PM ET (UConn vs UCLA). Both games will be televised live on ESPN. You can also stream the games through the ESPN app or on the ESPN+ service if you have access. The winners will advance to the national championship game on Sunday, April 6, 2025 (3:00 PM ET, on ABC).

Q: What teams are in the 2025 Women’s Final Four?
A: The Final Four features four teams: the Texas Longhorns, South Carolina Gamecocks, UConn (Connecticut) Huskies, and UCLA Bruins. Texas, South Carolina, and UCLA were No. 1 seeds in their regions, while UConn is a No. 2 seed. In the semifinals, Texas faces South Carolina, and UConn faces UCLA. These teams earned their spots by winning their regional brackets in the NCAA tournament. It’s a star-studded lineup, as all four programs are among the top in the nation this year.

Q: Who are the star players to watch in the Final Four?
A: There are several standout players in this year’s Final Four. For UConn, Paige Bueckers is a must-watch – the senior guard is a former national Player of the Year and is averaging nearly 30 points in the tournament. She’s joined by sharpshooter Azzi Fudd and freshman sensation Sarah Strong on a potent Huskies squad. UCLA’s centerpiece is Lauren Betts, a 6’7” dominant center who averages a double-double and anchors the Bruins on both ends. UCLA also has guard Kiki Rice and wing Gabriela Jaquez, who are key playmakers. South Carolina brings a balanced team – keep an eye on freshman scorers Joyce Edwards and MiLaysia Fulwiley coming off the bench, as well as forward Chloe Kitts inside. Texas features Madison Booker, the sophomore forward who was SEC Player of the Year, and point guard Rori Harmon, who sets the tone with her playmaking and defense. All of these players have the ability to take over a game, which makes the Final Four especially exciting.

Q: What are some betting tips for the Women’s Final Four games?
A: Betting on the Women’s Final Four requires understanding each team’s style and recent form. Here are a few tips:

• Consider the Matchups: Texas vs South Carolina is likely to be a defensive, low-scoring contest (leaning toward the under) because both teams pride themselves on defense and have played in several low-scoring battles. UConn vs UCLA, on the other hand, features a high-powered offense vs. a high-powered offense/inside game, which could lead to more points (lean over). Matchup advantages matter – for example, UCLA’s size advantage versus UConn’s speed could influence how you bet the spread or props.

• Experience Matters: Teams like UConn and South Carolina have coaches and players who have been on this stage before, which can be an edge in handling pressure. This doesn’t guarantee a cover or win, but it’s something to factor in, especially in live betting situations if a game gets tight late.

• Watch the Stars: Star players tend to shine or at least get plenty of opportunities. Betting player props (like points, rebounds, etc.) on proven stars such as Paige Bueckers or Lauren Betts can be fruitful. Just be mindful of matchups – e.g., Bueckers will face a tough UCLA defense, and Betts will contend with UConn’s quick guards trying to wear her down.

• Shop for Lines: If you’re betting, make sure to compare odds at different sportsbooks. Sometimes you might find Texas +6 instead of +5.5, or a total a point higher or lower. A half-point can be crucial in basketball betting.

• Utilize Expert Picks: For additional insight, consider following expert handicappers. Apps like Kingpin (available on Android and iOS) provide picks and predictions from top ranked bettors, which can help inform your wagers.

Q: Where can I find expert picks or predictions for the Final Four?
A: You can find expert picks and detailed predictions through sports betting analysts and specialized platforms. One convenient source is the Kingpin sports betting app, where top handicappers share their picks for each game (including sides, totals, and props). The app aggregates expert opinions and betting trends, which can complement your own research. Additionally, major sports outlets like ESPN and CBS Sports often have expert prediction articles for the Final Four. Just be sure to look at reasoning behind picks, and remember that no pick is a guarantee – use expert insights as one of several tools when making your bets.

Q: Which team is favored to win the 2025 NCAA Women’s Championship?
A: Before the Final Four games tip off, South Carolina and UConn are often mentioned as slight favorites by oddsmakers to win it all, given South Carolina’s status as defending champion and UConn’s explosive form. However, all four teams are championship-caliber. UCLA was the No. 1 overall seed coming in and has the talent to go the distance, and Texas has already proven it can beat anyone on a given night. Futures odds may have South Carolina and UConn with the lowest odds (meaning highest probability), but the margin is thin. Essentially, the team that can survive Friday’s semifinals and execute one more great game on Sunday will be the champion – it truly is up for grabs this year.