Dana White's Contender Series Season 8, Week 6: Aaron Tau vs Elijah Smith Preview and Prediction

Introduction

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 8, Week 6, promises another exciting night of action at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas on September 17, 2024. The main event features a thrilling bantamweight clash between two rising stars, Aaron Tau and Elijah Smith. Tau, hailing from New Zealand, brings an undefeated record of 8-0-0 into this fight, showcasing his explosive knockout power and well-rounded skills. He faces off against the hard-hitting American, Elijah Smith, who enters the octagon with a 6-1-0 record and a reputation for finishing fights early. With a potential UFC contract on the line, both fighters will be looking to make a statement in what could be the biggest fight of their careers.

 

Odds Table

Fighter	Odds	Record
Aaron Tau	+160	8-0-0
Elijah Smith	-200	6-1-0

 

Fighter Overview

Aaron Tau

Aaron Tau, known by his nickname "Tauzemup," has quickly made a name for himself in the bantamweight division. Fighting out of New Zealand, Tau has compiled an impressive undefeated record of 8-0-0, with five of those wins coming by knockout. Standing at 5'9" and weighing 135 lbs, Tau is a well-rounded fighter with the ability to finish fights both on the feet and on the ground. His most recent victory was a second-round TKO against Shane Parker in February 2024, where he showcased his striking precision and power. Tau's fighting style is characterized by his aggressive approach and ability to maintain a high pace, overwhelming his opponents with a relentless barrage of strikes. As he steps into the octagon for the first time under the bright lights of Dana White's Contender Series, Tau will be looking to secure a UFC contract and prove that he belongs among the elite in the bantamweight division.

Elijah Smith

Elijah Smith, representing the USA, is a 29-year-old bantamweight prospect fighting out of Victory MMA. With a record of 6-1-0, Smith has established himself as a dangerous striker, with four of his wins coming by knockout. Standing at 5'9" and also weighing 135 lbs, Smith has shown his ability to end fights quickly, with his most recent victory being a first-round TKO against Josh Walker in June 2024. Smith's fighting style is explosive and aggressive, often looking to finish his opponents early with powerful combinations. His only loss came in a third-round TKO against Reyes Cortez Jr. in March 2023, but Smith has bounced back with a string of impressive victories, showcasing his resilience and determination. With his eyes set on a UFC contract, Smith will be looking to make a statement in this high-stakes matchup against the undefeated Aaron Tau.

 

Fight History & Analysis

Aaron Tau

Tau's fight history is a testament to his striking prowess and well-rounded game. His journey in the Xtreme Fighting Championships (XFC) has been marked by a series of dominant performances, including five knockouts and one submission victory. Tau’s ability to finish fights early has made him a fan favorite, and his knockout of Paul Loga in the first round at XFC 58 remains one of the highlights of his career. Tau's striking is both powerful and precise, and he has demonstrated the ability to control the pace of the fight, keeping his opponents on the back foot. Additionally, Tau’s ground game should not be overlooked, as evidenced by his submission win via rear-naked choke against Nick Thornton in December 2021. Tau's combination of striking and grappling makes him a well-rounded threat in the bantamweight division, and his undefeated record speaks volumes about his potential in the UFC.

Elijah Smith

Smith’s fight history highlights his devastating knockout power and aggressive fighting style. With four of his six wins coming by knockout, Smith has established himself as a formidable striker in the bantamweight division. His knockout victory over Josh Walker in June 2024, where he finished the fight in just 1:44 of the first round, is a prime example of his ability to end fights quickly. Smith has also shown versatility in his game, with a submission victory against Dimas Chapa in August 2023, proving that he is not solely reliant on his striking. However, Smith has faced adversity in his career, with his only loss coming by TKO against Reyes Cortez Jr. in March 2023. Despite this setback, Smith has demonstrated resilience, bouncing back with three consecutive wins. His ability to adapt and improve has been evident in his recent performances, and he will look to continue his winning streak as he takes on the undefeated Aaron Tau.

 

Strengths and Weaknesses

Aaron Tau

Strengths:

• Striking Power: Tau has shown exceptional knockout power, with five of his eight wins coming by way of KO/TKO. His ability to finish fights with his hands makes him a constant threat.
• Well-Rounded Game: Tau’s ground game is solid, with a submission victory to his name. This versatility allows him to be dangerous in all areas of the fight.
• Fight IQ: Tau has displayed a high fight IQ, making smart decisions in the octagon and capitalizing on his opponents' mistakes.

Weaknesses:

• Experience: Although Tau is undefeated, he has yet to face the level of competition that he will encounter in the UFC. His lack of experience against top-tier opponents could be a factor.
• Pacing: Tau’s aggressive style could potentially lead to issues with pacing, especially in a longer, drawn-out fight against a durable opponent.

Elijah Smith

Strengths:

• Knockout Power: Smith’s striking is his biggest asset, with four of his wins coming by knockout. His ability to finish fights early makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone in the bantamweight division.
• Resilience: Smith has shown the ability to bounce back from adversity, particularly after his TKO loss in 2023. His mental toughness and ability to adapt make him a difficult fighter to break.
• Aggressive Style: Smith’s aggressive approach puts his opponents on the defensive from the opening bell, often leading to early finishes.

Weaknesses:

• Defensive Vulnerabilities: Smith’s aggressive style can leave him open to counters, particularly against a technical striker like Tau.
• Ground Game: While Smith has a submission victory, his ground game is less developed compared to his striking, which could be a weakness against a well-rounded fighter like Tau.

 

Betting Trends and Market Analysis

The betting odds favor Elijah Smith at -200, reflecting his reputation as a powerful finisher and his recent string of victories. Aaron Tau, despite being undefeated, is the underdog at +160, likely due to his less tested record and the higher level of competition Smith has faced. The over/under for this fight is set at 2.5 rounds, indicating that oddsmakers expect a potentially quick finish given both fighters’ histories of early stoppages. Bettors may find value in betting on Smith to win by knockout, considering his track record of first-round finishes.

 

Potential Fight Outcomes

Elijah Smith Wins by Knockout

Smith’s most likely path to victory is by utilizing his knockout power to finish Tau early. If Smith can pressure Tau and land his powerful strikes, he could secure another first-round finish.

Aaron Tau Wins by Knockout

Tau has the power to finish the fight with a single shot, and if he can catch Smith with a clean strike, he could maintain his undefeated record with another knockout victory.

Elijah Smith Wins by Decision

Smith could also win by outstriking Tau over three rounds, especially if he can avoid Tau’s power shots and maintain a high output throughout the fight.

Aaron Tau Wins by Submission

While less likely, Tau could exploit Smith’s defensive vulnerabilities on the ground and secure a submission victory if the fight goes to the mat.

 

Prediction