UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev - Main Event Pick

The main event of UFC 319 on August 16, 2025, is a blockbuster middleweight title fight that pits champion Dricus "Stillknocks" Du Plessis against the undefeated phenom Khamzat "Borz" Chimaev. This is a clash of two of the most dominant forces in the division, and it's a fight that has the MMA world buzzing.

Fighter Breakdown

Dricus Du Plessis

Dricus Du Plessis (23-2-0) has defied all expectations on his path to becoming the middleweight champion. His unorthodox, high-pressure style has proven to be an unsolvable puzzle for elite opponents. He has an 11-fight winning streak, including dominant wins over Robert Whittaker and two victories against Sean Strickland, and a submission win over Israel Adesanya to win the title. Du Plessis is relentless and physically strong, with solid grappling and knockout power. He has a unique way of wearing down his opponents and finding a way to win, even when the fight looks messy.

Khamzat Chimaev

Khamzat Chimaev (14-0-0) is one of the most feared and hyped fighters in the UFC. He is an undefeated force of nature with a nearly perfect record of finishes, demonstrating suffocating wrestling and elite grappling. His last outing was a submission victory over Robert Whittaker, where he shattered the former champion's jaw. Chimaev's style is pure aggression—he comes out at 100 miles per hour, looking to take his opponent down and finish them on the mat with submissions or ground and pound. His strength and explosiveness are unmatched in the division.

Betting Odds and Analysis

The betting odds for this title fight reflect the high regard for both fighters, but with Chimaev as the favorite. Khamzat Chimaev is listed at -265, while Dricus Du Plessis is the underdog at +215. The line movement since it opened shows that sharp money is consistently backing Chimaev.

This fight is the classic striker-grappler matchup, but with a few unique twists. Du Plessis is not a traditional striker, and Chimaev is a grappler with serious knockout power in his hands. The key question for this fight is whether Du Plessis can survive the early onslaught from Chimaev.

• Chimaev's Path to Victory: Khamzat's plan is simple and effective. He will use his explosive wrestling to take Du Plessis to the ground in the first round. Once on the mat, his suffocating pressure and submission skills are a major threat. He has a high takedown rate and has shown a near-100% takedown defense. The face crank he used to finish Whittaker shows his devastating power on the ground.
• Du Plessis's Path to Victory: Du Plessis needs to weather the storm. His best chance is to survive the early rounds and push the pace into the championship rounds, where Chimaev's cardio has been questioned in the past. If Du Plessis can defend the takedowns and make Chimaev work, he can potentially take over as Chimaev tires. His "messy" style often works to his advantage by dragging opponents into a grueling, ugly fight.

Prediction

While Du Plessis is an incredibly tough and gritty champion who has proven he can beat anyone, Khamzat Chimaev's skillset is uniquely suited to defeat him. Du Plessis has shown that he can be taken down, and that is a major problem against someone like Chimaev, who will not let go once he gets a hold of you. Chimaev's wrestling and relentless pressure are on a different level from anyone Du Plessis has faced. The pace that Chimaev pushes in the first few rounds is likely to be too much for Du Plessis to handle, and he will either get submitted or TKO'd by ground and pound.

While an underdog bet on the champion might be tempting, Chimaev's undefeated record and stylistic advantage make him the most logical pick to win this fight and become the new UFC Middleweight Champion.