Phillies vs Nationals Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 2 (9/2): MLB

Credit: photo by Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

 

Odds

Time	1:05 p.m. EST
Phillies money line	-160
Phillies run line	-1.5 (-102)
Nationals money line	+135
Nationals run line	+1.5 (-123)
Over / under	8.5 (-110)

 

Key stats

	Phillies	Nationals
Record	68-64	55-76
Road / home record	29-36	31-35
Last 10 record	6-4	2-8
Streak	W5	L4
Over / under record	65-63-4	58-69-4
Runs / game	4.58	4.40
Runs allowed / game	4.64	4.91

 

Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are in Washington for the final game of the three game series against the Nationals in a makeup game.  The Phillies took the first two games 7-4 and 12-6, and have now won 5 straight after dropping their previous 3.  The Nationals have dropped 4 straight and 6 of 7.  The Phillies remain firmly in the NL East race, only 2 games behind the Braves.

Phillies bats have been scorching hot, averaging 8.0 runs in their 5 game win streak, and have averaged 6.2 runs per game over their last 10.

The Nationals have been scoring runs, averaging 4.25 runs per game in their 4 game losing streak, but haven't pitched well.

Pitching matchup

Phillies

Aaron Nola (7-7, 4.30 ERA) takes the mound for the Phillies.  He's coming off sub-4.00 ERA 2017-2020 seasons, and has pitched well in his last 2 games, going a combined 14.0 innings, giving up 4 earned runs on 5 hits, 2 walks, and 18 strikeouts.  He had two bad outings in August against the Reds and the Nationals, going a combined 9.1 innings, giving up 9 earned runs.  In the early August game at Washington, he went 5.0 innings, with 5 earned runs on 5 hits, 3 walks and 7 strikeouts.  Nationals batters have gone 23 for 109 (.211 AVG) against Nola, with 5 home runs, 14 walks and 33 strikeouts.

Nationals

Paolo Espino (4-4, 4.13 ERA) pitches for the Nationals.  His ERA has decreased from a >5 ERA 2017 and a 4.50 ERA 2020.  His August was a mixed bag, with only one good start and then 4 poor games were he went a combined 14.1 innings, giving up 15 earned runs on 23 hits, with 4 walks and 12 strikeouts.  He's seen the Phillies 4 times this season, going a combined 9.0 innings, giving up 8 earned runs on 10 hits and 2 walks.  Phillies batters have gone 9 for 27 (.333 AVG) against Espino, with 1 home run.

Prediction

Espino struggled against the Phillies last game out, giving up 6 earned runs in 5.0 innings.  The Phillies bats have been electric recently, with 8 runs per game in their 5 game winnings streak.  We see the Phillies breaking in Espino early and cruising to a win, sweeping the series.

PICK: Phillies money line (-160)

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