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Devin Singletary Rushing Yards Prop Bet Analysis vs. Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football

Introduction

The NFC East rivalry between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys is always intense, and this Thursday night’s matchup is no exception. One of the most compelling prop bets for this game is Devin Singletary’s rushing yards, set at 60.5 yards (-110). As the Giants' primary running back, Singletary has been the focal point of the ground attack. In this analysis, we’ll break down his recent performances, the Cowboys' defense, and the factors that could influence whether Singletary will go over or under his rushing yard total.

 

Game Odds

Team	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Dallas Cowboys	-6	45.5	-250
New York Giants	+6	45.5	+210

Devin Singletary's Recent Performance

Through the first three weeks of the 2024 season, Devin Singletary has rushed for 197 yards on 42 carries, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. In Week 1 against Minnesota, Singletary struggled with just 37 yards on 10 carries. However, he bounced back in Weeks 2 and 3, rushing for 95 yards against Washington and 65 yards in a victory over Cleveland. His performances in the last two games have seen him exceed the 60.5-yard mark, making this prop bet a tantalizing option for bettors.

Singletary has also demonstrated big-play ability, with a long run of 43 yards against Cleveland. His vision and ability to find cutback lanes make him a consistent threat in the run game, and the Giants' offensive line has been opening holes for him to exploit.

Dallas Cowboys' Defense: Run-Stopping Ability

The Cowboys' defense, traditionally stout, has shown some weaknesses against the run this season. Through three games, Dallas has allowed an average of 118 rushing yards per game, ranking them in the bottom half of the league. In their Week 2 loss to the New Orleans Saints, the Cowboys allowed 137 rushing yards, with multiple backs finding success between the tackles.

The absence of key defensive linemen, such as Jordan Phillips, who is on injured reserve, could further weaken the Cowboys' ability to stop the run. This opens up opportunities for Singletary to find space and potentially exceed his rushing yards prop. Dallas will need to focus on containing Singletary if they want to keep the Giants' offense in check.

Recent Head-to-Head Matchups

In previous matchups between the Cowboys and Giants, the Giants have leaned on their running game to control the pace. While Singletary is new to this rivalry after joining the Giants, New York’s ground game has historically been effective against Dallas, averaging over 100 rushing yards per game in their last five meetings. The Cowboys have often struggled to contain shifty backs like Singletary, who excel in making defenders miss in space.

Injury Impact

Injuries could play a significant role in the outcome of this prop bet. The Giants will be without key wide receiver Darius Slayton, which could shift more of the offensive burden onto the running game. This increased focus on the ground attack bodes well for Singletary’s rushing yardage. Additionally, the absence of several key Dallas defenders, particularly in the secondary, could lead to a more run-heavy game plan for the Giants as they attempt to control the tempo and keep the Cowboys' offense off the field.

Weather and Venue Impact

The game will take place at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, where the weather is expected to be mild with temperatures around 74°F. With no significant wind or rain in the forecast, conditions will be ideal for a balanced offensive attack. The Giants should have no issues sticking to their game plan of running the football, particularly with their home-field advantage on a grass surface that favors a ground-and-pound strategy.

Advanced Metrics

According to advanced metrics, Devin Singletary ranks among the top 20 running backs in yards after contact this season. His ability to break tackles and extend runs is a key factor in his success, especially against a Cowboys defense that has missed tackles at an alarming rate in 2024. Additionally, Singletary’s 4.7 yards per carry average ranks him in the top half of NFL running backs, and his 43-yard long run against Cleveland shows he’s capable of breaking big plays that can quickly boost his rushing total.

Dallas’ defense, meanwhile, ranks in the bottom third of the league in run defense according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). Their inability to consistently stop the run between the tackles presents a prime opportunity for Singletary to exploit.

 

Prediction