© Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

 

Spread Betting Preview: Fordham Rams vs. Bowling Green Falcons Prediction College Football

The 2024 college football season continues with a matchup between the Fordham Rams and the Bowling Green Falcons on Thursday, August 29, 2024. The game will be played at Doyt L. Perry Stadium in Bowling Green, Ohio, with a 4:00 PM EST kickoff. Fordham, an FCS team, comes into this game as a 17.5-point underdog against an FBS opponent in Bowling Green. The Rams have a history of competing well against higher-level teams, and they are looking to cover the spread in this contest. 

 

Game Information

• Date: August 29, 2024
• Location: Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH
• Time: 4:00 PM EST
• TV Coverage: ESPN+
• Line: Fordham +17.5

Fordham Rams: Underdogs with Upset Potential

The Fordham Rams enter the 2024 season with high hopes after a successful 2023 campaign that saw them finish 9-3 overall and earn a spot in the FCS playoffs. Head Coach Joe Conlin, now in his sixth season with the Rams, has developed a potent offense that can challenge even FBS defenses. Fordham has a track record of performing well against tough competition, and they are eager to show they can keep this game close against Bowling Green.

Offensively, the Rams are led by quarterback C.J. Montes, who threw for 3,412 yards and 28 touchdowns last season. Montes is a confident and accurate passer with a quick release, capable of making plays downfield. The running game is anchored by Trey Sneed, who rushed for 1,029 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2023. Sneed is a physical runner who excels in short-yardage situations and can break tackles to gain extra yards, making him a key asset in Fordham’s ball-control strategy.

The receiving corps is headlined by wide receiver Fotis Kokosioulis, who caught 86 passes for 1,122 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. Kokosioulis is a reliable target with excellent route-running skills and the ability to make tough catches in traffic. He will be a primary weapon for Montes, especially on third downs and in the red zone. Alongside Kokosioulis, tight end Dequece Carter provides another reliable target, particularly on intermediate routes and play-action passes. The offensive line, returning four starters, is an experienced group that has shown the ability to protect the quarterback and create running lanes.

Defensively, Fordham is anchored by linebacker James Conway, who led the team with 119 tackles and 4 sacks last season. Conway is a high-motor player who excels in both run defense and pass coverage, making him a versatile leader on the field. The Rams’ defense, which allowed 24.7 points per game in 2023, has been focused on improving their pass rush and tackling fundamentals. The secondary, led by cornerback Stephen Williams, is a disciplined unit that will need to be at their best against Bowling Green’s passing attack. If Fordham can generate pressure on the quarterback and limit big plays, they will have a good chance of keeping the game within the spread.

Bowling Green Falcons: Favorites Looking to Rebound

The Bowling Green Falcons are coming off a 6-7 season in 2023, including a 4-4 record in MAC play. Head Coach Scot Loeffler, in his fifth season with the Falcons, is looking to guide his team back to a winning record and bowl eligibility. Bowling Green enters this game as the favorite, but they will need to execute well to cover the -17.5 spread against a Fordham team that is not to be underestimated.

Bowling Green’s offense is led by quarterback Camden Orth, who threw for 2,512 yards and 18 touchdowns last season. Orth is a capable quarterback with a strong arm and the ability to make plays both in the pocket and on the move. However, consistency has been an issue, as Orth has struggled with accuracy at times. The running game is led by running back Terion Stewart, who rushed for 865 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2023. Stewart is a quick, elusive back who can make defenders miss in space and has the speed to break off big runs.

The Falcons’ receiving corps is led by wide receiver Odieu Hiliare, who caught 62 passes for 789 yards and 9 touchdowns last season. Hiliare’s speed and ability to stretch the field make him a dangerous target, particularly on deep routes. Tight end Harold Fannin Jr. is another key weapon for Orth, providing a big target over the middle of the field and in the red zone. The offensive line, which has struggled with pass protection, will need to provide Orth with time to find his targets against a Fordham defense that can bring pressure.

Defensively, Bowling Green allowed 30.1 points per game last season, ranking near the bottom of the MAC. The defensive line, led by defensive end Karl Brooks, is capable of generating pressure but has been inconsistent against the run. Linebacker Darren Anders, who led the team with 111 tackles last season, is a key playmaker who excels in both run defense and pass coverage. The secondary, anchored by cornerback Jordan Anderson, will need to tighten up their coverage against Fordham’s passing attack. If Bowling Green can force turnovers and limit big plays, they will be in a good position to win the game, though covering the spread may still be a challenge.

Advanced Metrics and Statistical Breakdown

Fordham Rams

• Offensive Efficiency: Fordham ranked 15th among FCS teams in Offensive Efficiency last season, according to SP+. The Rams averaged 6.7 yards per play and were highly effective in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 71% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
• Defensive Efficiency: The Rams ranked 52nd in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 348.2 yards per game. Their ability to generate pressure and force turnovers was a key strength, as they recorded 29 sacks and 16 interceptions last season.
• Turnover Margin: Fordham finished the 2023 season with a +6 turnover margin, ranking 18th among FCS teams. The Rams were able to protect the football and create takeaways, which helped them win close games.

Bowling Green Falcons

• Offensive Efficiency: Bowling Green ranked 101st in the FBS in Offensive Efficiency last season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The Falcons averaged 5.1 yards per play and struggled in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 53% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
• Defensive Efficiency: Bowling Green ranked 98th in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 402.5 yards per game. The Falcons’ defense struggled against both the run and the pass, and their inability to get off the field on third downs was a major issue.
• Red Zone Performance: Bowling Green scored touchdowns on 54% of their red zone trips, while their defense allowed touchdowns on 64% of opponents' red zone opportunities, ranking near the bottom of the MAC.

Coaching Analysis

Joe Conlin (Fordham)

Joe Conlin is in his sixth season as the head coach of the Fordham Rams. Conlin, a former offensive coordinator at Yale, has brought an aggressive, high-scoring offense to Fordham that has been one of the most prolific in the FCS. Under his leadership, the Rams have consistently been among the top teams in scoring and yardage, thanks to a balanced attack that utilizes both the run and the pass.

Defensively, Conlin has emphasized improving fundamentals and creating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. His teams are known for their aggressive play and ability to force turnovers, which has been a key factor in Fordham’s success. In this matchup, Conlin will look to keep the game close by controlling the clock and capitalizing on any mistakes made by Bowling Green. The Rams’ disciplined approach and offensive firepower will be crucial in their ability to cover the spread.

Scot Loeffler (Bowling Green)

Scot Loeffler is entering his fifth season as the head coach of the Bowling Green Falcons. Loeffler, a former offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at several FBS programs, has focused on rebuilding the Falcons with an emphasis on discipline and fundamentals. Under Loeffler’s leadership, Bowling Green has shown flashes of potential but has struggled with consistency on both sides of the ball.

Offensively, Loeffler ’s teams are known for their balanced attack, utilizing both the run and the pass to keep defenses off balance. However, the Falcons have struggled to finish drives, particularly in the red zone. Defensively, Loeffler has focused on improving tackling and limiting big plays, but the Falcons have been inconsistent in their execution. In this matchup, Loeffler will need his team to play with discipline and minimize mistakes if they hope to cover the spread against Fordham.

Recent Performance

Fordham Rams

Fordham finished the 2023 season with a 9-3 record, including a 5-1 mark in Patriot League play. The Rams showed improvement on both sides of the ball, particularly in their offensive play. Fordham’s season was highlighted by a 45-38 victory over Holy Cross, in which their offense exploded for 522 total yards. The Rams also recorded a 34-28 win over Lehigh, showcasing their ability to execute in critical situations and pull off close victories.

In their final game of the 2023 season, Fordham lost to Delaware 31-24 in the first round of the FCS playoffs. The game was a hard-fought battle, with the Rams coming up just short in the final minutes. C.J. Montes threw for 298 yards and 3 touchdowns, but Fordham was unable to overcome a late turnover. Despite the loss, the Rams have shown they can compete against strong opponents, and they will look to carry that momentum into the 2024 season.

Bowling Green Falcons

Bowling Green ended the 2023 season with a 6-7 record, including a 4-4 mark in MAC play. The Falcons’ season was highlighted by a 24-21 victory over Eastern Michigan, in which their defense forced two turnovers and held the Eagles to just 318 total yards. Bowling Green also recorded a 27-20 win over Akron, showcasing their ability to pull off close victories. However, the Falcons also suffered several lopsided losses, including a 45-14 defeat to Toledo and a 41-17 loss to Ohio.

In their final game of the 2023 season, Bowling Green lost to Western Michigan 31-17. The game was marked by defensive lapses and missed opportunities, as the Falcons struggled to contain Western Michigan’s passing attack. Camden Orth threw for 242 yards and 2 touchdowns, but Bowling Green was unable to keep pace offensively. The loss was a disappointing end to a season that showed promise but ultimately fell short of expectations.

Head-to-Head Comparison

This game marks the first-ever meeting between Fordham and Bowling Green, adding an element of unpredictability to the matchup. Bowling Green, as an FBS program, enters the game as the favorite, but Fordham has shown they can compete against higher-level competition. The key to this game will likely be Fordham’s ability to control the clock and limit Bowling Green’s offensive opportunities.

Fordham’s defense, which excels at creating pressure and forcing turnovers, will be a crucial factor in this game. If the Rams can disrupt Camden Orth and limit the Falcons’ running game, they have a good chance of keeping the game close. Offensively, Fordham will need to sustain drives and avoid turnovers, as Bowling Green’s defense has struggled to get off the field on third downs.

Betting Stats and Trends

• Fordham Rams: The Rams are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against FBS opponents. They have been competitive in many of these matchups, often covering large spreads.
• Bowling Green Falcons: The Falcons are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites. They have struggled to cover spreads, particularly when facing non-conference opponents.
• Head-to-Head: This is the first meeting between Fordham and Bowling Green, adding an element of unpredictability to the matchup.

Weather and Venue Considerations

Doyt L. Perry Stadium in Bowling Green, Ohio, provides a familiar environment for the Bowling Green Falcons. The weather forecast for August 29th calls for temperatures in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies, typical for late summer in the Midwest. These conditions are not expected to significantly impact the game, but the energy of a season-opening crowd could provide a boost for Bowling Green.

The home-field advantage of Doyt L. Perry Stadium, combined with the experienced leadership of Scot Loeffler, will be a factor in favor of Bowling Green. However, Fordham will be looking to prove themselves against an FBS opponent, and they are expected to bring a strong contingent of fans to support them. The venue’s setting and passionate fan base make it a challenging place for visiting teams, but the Rams will be up for the challenge.

Prediction