Introduction

As the Indianapolis Colts (7-8) visit the New York Giants (2-13) at MetLife Stadium, Jonathan Taylor's rushing prop of over/under 97.5 yards (-115) is drawing significant attention from bettors. With Taylor fresh off a dominant 218-yard performance, the matchup against the hapless Giants' run defense sets up well for another stellar outing. This article provides an in-depth look at Taylor's recent performances, the Giants' defensive vulnerabilities, and betting trends.

Game and Odds Overview

Indianapolis is a 7.5-point favorite against a Giants team that has yet to win a home game this season. With the Colts relying on Joe Flacco at quarterback due to Anthony Richardson’s injury, the game script strongly favors a run-heavy approach, positioning Taylor as the centerpiece of the offense.

Jonathan Taylor: Recent Performance and Momentum

Jonathan Taylor has been the engine of the Colts' offense in recent weeks. His ability to produce big plays and sustain drives has kept Indianapolis in playoff contention. Here's a closer look at his recent performances:

• Last Game (vs. Titans): 29 carries, 218 yards, 3 touchdowns, including a 70-yard scoring run.
• Last 5 Games: Averaging 102.6 rushing yards per game on 20.2 carries, with 4 total touchdowns.
• Big Play Potential: Taylor leads all NFL running backs with 6 rushes of 40+ yards this season.

Taylor’s workload and efficiency make him a top candidate to exceed 97.5 rushing yards against a porous Giants defense.

New York Giants: Defensive Struggles

The Giants' defense ranks 31st in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (149.7) and 30th in yards per carry (5.1). Opposing running backs have consistently exploited their front seven, which has been plagued by injuries and poor tackling. Over the past five games, the Giants have allowed:

• 148.4 rushing yards per game to opposing teams.
• Three 100+ yard rushers: Bijan Robinson (135 yards), Alvin Kamara (110 yards), and Derrick Henry (126 yards).

The absence of key defensive players like John Michael Schmitz Jr. and Raheem Layne further weakens an already struggling unit.

Colts Offensive Game Plan

With Anthony Richardson sidelined and veteran Joe Flacco under center, the Colts are expected to lean heavily on the ground game. Taylor’s ability to pick up chunk yardage and control the clock will be critical for Indianapolis to secure the win. The Giants’ pass rush (ranked 27th in sack rate) is unlikely to disrupt Flacco, allowing the Colts to stick with a balanced, run-first attack.

Betting Trends

• Jonathan Taylor: Has exceeded 97.5 rushing yards in 3 of his last 5 games.
• Giants Defense: Allowed an average of 150 rushing yards per game over the last 3 weeks.
• Colts vs. Giants: The Colts are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 meetings with New York.

Advanced Metrics

Taylor ranks in the 95th percentile among running backs in yards after contact per attempt (3.6) and broken tackles (35). Against a Giants defense ranked 30th in defensive adjusted line yards, Taylor's ability to create yardage on his own should shine. Additionally, the Colts' offensive line ranks 7th in run blocking win rate, further boosting Taylor’s outlook.