Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Prediction, Odds & Best Bet - September 5, 2026

Kingpin Editorial pick: Felipe Lima -192 at DraftKings. Lima is the preferred side because his 14-2-0 record is considerably cleaner than Morgan Charriere’s 21-12-1 mark. Lima has lost only twice across his recorded career, while still demonstrating multiple finishing paths with four knockout wins, three submission wins, and five first-round finishes. That combination gives him the stronger results-based profile entering this Featherweight Bout.

This must remain a lean rather than an aggressive wager. Lima’s projected win probability is 63.8%, while a -192 moneyline requires a 65.8% break-even rate. The resulting edge is -2%, and the listed confidence is Low. In practical terms, the selection is Lima to win, but the available price asks bettors to pay slightly more than the projection supports.

Charriere is also too dangerous for one-sided language. His 13 knockout wins are more than three times Lima’s four, and his eight first-round finishes exceed Lima’s five. Lima’s record supports the pick; Charriere’s power and finishing history limit conviction.

Morgan Charriere enters at 21-12-1 with a clearly documented striking finish profile. He has 13 wins by knockout, three by submission, and eight first-round finishes. He has landed 205 significant strikes from 410 attempts, the larger supplied striking sample in this matchup. Those figures make Charriere a credible threat whenever the bout remains in open striking exchanges.

Charriere’s knockout count is the most important argument for taking the +170 underdog seriously. Lima has only two career losses on his record, but Charriere possesses the kind of documented finishing route that can overturn a favorite’s cleaner overall mark. If Charriere establishes his striking early and turns the bout into repeated power exchanges, Lima’s moneyline becomes uncomfortable.

There are limits to Charriere’s profile. His 21-12-1 record includes substantially more setbacks than Lima’s 14-2-0 mark. He also has 15 recorded takedown attempts, but no supplied takedowns-landed figure accompanies those attempts. The reliable case for Charriere therefore comes from his knockout production and significant-strike volume, not from assuming a grappling advantage that the numbers do not establish.

Felipe Lima’s strongest supporting fact is his 14-2-0 record. He has maintained that record while collecting four knockout wins and three submission wins, giving him seven finishes split evenly enough to show that he is not dependent on only one listed method. His five first-round finishes also establish early danger, even though Charriere holds the higher first-round total.

Lima has landed 118 significant strikes from 262 attempts. That is a smaller supplied striking sample than Charriere’s 205 landed from 410 attempted, so the favorite cannot be backed on raw significant-strike totals alone. The Lima case instead begins with how rarely he has lost and the fact that both knockout and submission victories appear on his record.

The grappling numbers deserve caution. Lima has attempted 22 takedowns and landed 1. That does not mean he cannot grapple, especially with three submission wins on his record, but it does mean the recorded takedown production is not a strong numerical foundation for laying -192. Lima is the selection because of his overall 14-2-0 results and balanced finish record, not because the supplied takedown data shows consistent control.

The decisive question is whether Lima’s cleaner career record can withstand Charriere’s more pronounced knockout threat. Charriere owns 13 knockout wins to Lima’s four, has eight first-round finishes to Lima’s five, and has landed 205 significant strikes to Lima’s 118. Those are meaningful Charriere advantages in the supplied offensive striking and finish totals.

Lima counters with the better loss profile. His 14-2-0 record indicates only two defeats, compared with 12 losses and one draw on Charriere’s 21-12-1 record. Lima also has three submission wins, matching Charriere’s submission total despite having fewer total recorded bouts. That makes Lima’s winning profile more balanced than his four knockout wins might initially suggest.

The takedown data does not clearly settle the matchup. Lima has 1 landed from 22 attempts, while Charriere has 15 attempts with no supplied landed total. The pick should not depend on either fighter reliably forcing a wrestling-heavy contest. If the bout is decided mainly through striking, Charriere’s knockout history creates the upset danger. If Lima avoids the damaging early exchanges and makes his broader 14-2-0 record the defining factor, the favorite is more likely to justify the lean.

The available moneyline lists Felipe Lima at -192 at DraftKings and Morgan Charriere at +170 at BetOnlineAG. The market therefore makes Lima the clear favorite, and Kingpin Editorial agrees with the direction by selecting Felipe Lima -192. The disagreement is with the strength of the price, not with which fighter should be favored.

Lima’s 63.8% projected probability is below the 65.8% break-even rate attached to -192. That 2-percentage-point shortfall explains the MARKET LEAN label and Low confidence. The numbers favor Lima’s side of the matchup based on his 14-2-0 record, but they do not clear the bar for stronger betting language.

Charriere at +170 is not the featured selection, yet that price reflects the real danger created by his 13 knockout wins and eight first-round finishes. Bettors choosing Lima are paying for his superior win-loss profile while accepting that Charriere owns the more imposing documented knockout résumé.

A materially worse price than Felipe Lima -192 would weaken an already thin case. The current projection of 63.8% is already below the 65.8% break-even rate, so increasing the amount required to back Lima would make the moneyline harder to support. Conversely, the matchup would need to be reassessed rather than automatically endorsed at any new number.

• Morgan Charriere missing weight would require a fresh evaluation of Charriere’s ability to sustain the striking threat represented by 205 significant strikes landed and 13 knockout wins.
• Felipe Lima missing weight would undermine confidence in a favorite whose case is anchored to his 14-2-0 record rather than dominant supplied takedown numbers.
• A medical issue involving either Lima or Charriere would invalidate the current comparison of their striking, grappling, and finish records.
• A late opponent change would eliminate the specific Lima-versus-Charriere matchup behind the Felipe Lima -192 lean.

Absent one of those triggers, Lima remains the preferred winner, but Charriere’s knockout profile and the demanding break-even rate keep this firmly in lean territory.