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Pete Alonso Hit Prop Analysis: NLCS Game 3 - Dodgers vs. Mets, October 16, 2024

The New York Mets will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 3 of the NLCS, with the series tied 1-1. Pete Alonso, the Mets' slugging first baseman, will look to help his team regain the series lead. Alonso’s hitting prop for the game is a key consideration for bettors, and we’ll explore if Alonso can record at least one hit at -145.

 

Game Odds

Team	Moneyline	Run Line	Over/Under
Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64)	-115	-1.5 (+145)	Over 7.5 (-110)
New York Mets (89-73)	-105	+1.5 (-175)	Under 7.5 (-110)

With the series tied 1-1, this matchup at Citi Field is pivotal. The total is set at 7.5, suggesting a relatively low-scoring game, but Alonso’s consistency in the postseason and his power-hitting ability against Dodgers starter Walker Buehler provide a promising opportunity for him to get a hit in this critical game.

Team Analysis

New York Mets

The Mets are coming off a strong 7-3 victory in Game 2, evening up the series. Alonso has been a key figure in the Mets' lineup throughout the season, hitting .240 with 34 home runs and 88 RBIs. His postseason performance has seen steady improvement, hitting .241 through the playoffs thus far. As the series shifts back to Citi Field, Alonso will be counted on to produce, especially against a Dodgers pitching staff that has shown vulnerability at times during the postseason.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are still the slight favorites in this game, led by their ace Walker Buehler. However, Buehler has struggled mightily in his lone postseason start, allowing seven hits and posting a 10.80 ERA in just five innings. Alonso's power and ability to square up fastballs could prove to be a significant factor against a pitcher trying to find his groove in the postseason.

Pete Alonso’s Recent Performance

Alonso has been one of the most consistent performers for the Mets in the postseason, and his recent games suggest he's in solid form:

• October 14 vs. Dodgers (Game 2): 1-for-4, with a walk, run scored, and a stolen base.
• October 13 vs. Dodgers (Game 1): 0-for-3 with a walk.
• October 9 vs. Phillies: 2-for-3 with a double.
• October 8 vs. Phillies: 1-for-2 with a home run and two walks.
• October 6 vs. Phillies: 1-for-4 with a home run.

In his last five postseason games, Alonso has recorded a hit in four of them. He’s batting .241 in the postseason, and his recent trend of getting on base makes the prop of him getting a hit at -145 an appealing option for Game 3.

Walker Buehler vs. Pete Alonso

Walker Buehler will take the mound for the Dodgers in Game 3. Buehler had a rough outing in his first postseason start, giving up seven hits in five innings against the San Diego Padres in the NLDS. Alonso has faced Buehler in the past and has had moderate success. Buehler’s current form, combined with Alonso’s recent performance, suggests the Mets’ first baseman is well-positioned to continue his postseason success.

Against the Spread (ATS) Records

New York Mets

The Mets were 81-81 ATS in the regular season, covering the spread in 50% of their games. They tend to perform better at home, with a 46-35 record at Citi Field this year.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers were a strong 90-72 ATS during the regular season, but their recent struggles on the road and in the postseason suggest that they’re vulnerable in this spot.

Betting Stats and Trends

• Pete Alonso hit prop: Alonso has recorded a hit in four of his last five postseason games, demonstrating consistency at the plate.
• Mets at home: The Mets have been stronger at home throughout the regular season and will look to leverage that home-field advantage in this crucial game.
• Walker Buehler postseason struggles: Buehler's 10.80 ERA in his first postseason start indicates that he’s not in top form, giving Alonso a good chance to capitalize.

Prediction