Alexander Blockx vs Francisco Cerundolo Prediction, Odds & Best Bet - September 7, 2026

Kingpin Editorial pick: Alexander Blockx moneyline -155, a low-confidence lean. Blockx enters this US Open Round 4 match with the more efficient set-by-set path. He beat Tomas Barrios Vera 6-3 6-4 6-2, defeated Marco Trungelliti 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-1, and then recovered from an opening-set tiebreak loss to beat Flavio Cobolli 6-7 (4-7) 6-3 6-0 6-3. That is nine sets won and two lost across three matches.

Cerundolo has also won all three matches, but his route has demanded more recovery. After beating Filip Misolic 6-4 6-3 7-5, he needed five sets against Jan-Lennard Struff and another five against Taylor Fritz. Blockx’s cleaner set record is the central reason to lean toward the younger Belgian to advance.

The price prevents stronger language. Blockx is projected at 59.5%, while -155 requires a supplied break-even rate of 60.8%. The resulting edge is listed at -1.3%, with expected value per unit at -0.021. Those figures make Alexander Blockx -155 a lean, not a qualifying bet.

Alexander Blockx arrives in Round 4 ranked 34th with 1396 ranking points. The 21-year-old Belgian is right-handed, stands 6' 4", weighs 183 lbs, and is in his 4th Season. He gives up ranking and experience to Cerundolo, but his results in New York have shown an ability to regain control quickly after isolated setbacks.

Blockx did not lose a set against Barrios Vera and surrendered only one against Trungelliti. After Trungelliti took the third set 6-3, Blockx closed the match 6-1. Against fifth-seeded Cobolli, Blockx lost a close first-set tiebreak before winning 18 of the next 24 games across the final three sets. The 6-0 third set was his most one-sided set of the tournament.

That sequence matters for the moneyline. Blockx has not needed a fifth set, and neither of his dropped sets caused the match to spiral. His first-serve execution and management of service games will be decisive against an opponent who has repeatedly stayed alive deep into matches. The concern is that Blockx has still dropped a set in each of his last two rounds, leaving openings that Cerundolo has proved capable of exploiting.

Francisco Cerundolo is the higher-ranked player at No. 25 and owns 1980 ranking points. The 28-year-old Argentine is right-handed, stands 6' 1", weighs 176 lbs, and is in his 8th Season. His ranking, seven-year age advantage, and additional four seasons of experience are significant reasons not to overstate the case for Blockx.

Cerundolo’s tournament began with a straight-sets win over Misolic, 6-4 6-3 7-5. His next two matches displayed exceptional persistence. Against Struff, he trailed by two sets to one before taking the final two sets 6-2 6-3. Against ninth-seeded Fritz, he lost the first two sets 3-6 4-6 and then completed the comeback 6-3 6-4 6-4.

Those recoveries make Cerundolo +146 a credible opposing moneyline. He has won six of his last seven sets and has already shown that an early deficit does not end his challenge. At the same time, four lost sets across the last two rounds mean his margin for error has repeatedly been tested. If Cerundolo again gives away an early set, Blockx’s recent closing scores suggest the favorite may be less accommodating than Cerundolo’s previous opponents.

The decisive matchup is Blockx’s ability to protect his serve and sustain pressure against Cerundolo’s demonstrated capacity to recover. Blockx owns the three-inch height advantage, but no ace, first-serve, return, or break-point statistics are available, so recent set scores provide the clearest comparison. Blockx has generally created separation once ahead, while Cerundolo has repeatedly extended matches into a fifth set.

For Alexander Blockx -155 to land, the favorite must limit openings in his service games after taking the lead. He closed his three wins with final-set scores of 6-2, 6-1, and 6-3. Cerundolo countered by closing consecutive five-set matches 6-3 and 6-4.

Early break points could shape the match. A controlled opening from Blockx would force Cerundolo into another comeback attempt. If Cerundolo instead applies consistent return pressure and turns Blockx’s service games into long battles, his higher ranking and recent resilience become more influential. Blockx’s efficiency against Cerundolo’s recovery record is the central contrast.

The moneyline market lists Alexander Blockx at -155 and Francisco Cerundolo at +146. The prices establish Blockx as the favorite, and Kingpin Editorial agrees with that direction. The disagreement is with the strength of the price: Blockx’s 59.5% projected probability sits below the supplied 60.8% break-even rate.

The spread market offers Blockx -2.5 at -115 and -3 at -115, while Cerundolo is available at +2.5 at -102 and +3 at -115. Those numbers ask Blockx not only to win but also to create game separation against a player who has taken consecutive matches the full five sets. The moneyline is the selected market because it keeps the requirement to advancing, although its -155 price remains demanding.

The total sits at 38.5, with Over -102 and Under -115, while 38 is priced -115 in either direction. Cerundolo’s recent match length points one way, while Blockx’s nine-of-11 set record points the other. With conflicting paths, the total is less convincing than the directional Blockx lean.

A materially worse price than Alexander Blockx -155 would remove the lean. The current moneyline already requires a 60.8% break-even rate against a 59.5% projected probability. Paying an additional moneyline premium would weaken the case rather than improve it.

• A retirement or availability concern involving Blockx before the match would make his moneyline difficult to support.
• A surface change or schedule delay affecting either player would require a fresh assessment.
• Moving from Blockx to win at -155 to Blockx -3 games at -115 would add unnecessary risk against an opponent coming off consecutive five-set recoveries.
• If Cerundolo consistently pressures Blockx’s serve and converts early break points, his No. 25 ranking and proven recovery ability would become more influential than Blockx’s cleaner route through three rounds.

As listed, Alexander Blockx -155 remains the preferred side, but it is strictly a low-confidence lean because the projection does not clear the market’s break-even requirement.