Kingpin analysis
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: Duke vs Ole Miss Betting Preview and Prediction 1/2

© Doug Engle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: Duke vs. Ole Miss Betting Preview
Game Overview
The TaxSlayer Gator Bowl features an exciting matchup between the Duke Blue Devils (9-3) and the Ole Miss Rebels (9-3). The game will take place at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida, on January 2, 2025, with kickoff scheduled for 6:00 PM EST. This showdown pits two teams with potent offenses but also strong defenses, which will likely keep the scoring under control.
Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | +17.5 (-110) | Over 51.5 (-110) | +550 |
| Ole Miss Rebels | -17.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-110) | -900 |
Team Analysis
Duke Blue Devils
Duke enters the Gator Bowl with a 9-3 record and a strong defense that allows just 20.6 points per game, ranking in the top 25 nationally. Quarterback Mike Murphy has thrown for 2,933 yards and 26 touchdowns this season, but turnovers (12 interceptions) have plagued him. Running back Shaun Thomas leads the ground attack with 871 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, while receiver Josh Moore has tallied 798 receiving yards and seven scores.
Defensively, Duke excels at stopping the run, holding opponents to just 3.4 yards per carry. The Blue Devils’ ability to disrupt Ole Miss’ rushing game could play a significant role in keeping the score low.
Ole Miss Rebels
The Rebels, led by quarterback Jaxson Dart, are known for their explosive offense, which averages 33.1 points per game. Dart has thrown for 3,875 yards, 25 touchdowns, and only six interceptions, making him one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the nation. Wide receiver Tre Harris is his favorite target, amassing 1,030 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.
While Ole Miss’ offense garners most of the attention, their defense has been quietly solid, allowing 22.3 points per game. Their ability to pressure quarterbacks (3.1 sacks per game) and force mistakes could further hinder Duke’s offensive output.
Recent Performance
Duke Blue Devils
- 11/30/24: Defeated Wake Forest 23-17
- 11/23/24: Defeated Virginia Tech 31-28
- 11/9/24: Defeated NC State 29-19
- 11/2/24: Lost to Miami 53-31
- 10/26/24: Lost to SMU 28-27 (OT)
Ole Miss Rebels
- 11/29/24: Defeated Mississippi State 26-14
- 11/23/24: Lost to Florida 24-17
- 11/9/24: Defeated Georgia 28-10
- 11/2/24: Defeated Arkansas 63-31
- 10/26/24: Defeated Oklahoma 26-14
Head-to-Head Matchup
This will be the first meeting between Duke and Ole Miss in over two decades. While Ole Miss boasts more explosive playmakers, Duke’s disciplined defense and ball-control offense will aim to frustrate the Rebels and keep the score low.
Betting Trends
- The under is 7-3 in Duke’s last 10 games.
- Ole Miss has hit the under in 5 of their last 7 games against ranked opponents.
- Duke is 6-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games.
- Ole Miss is 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games as double-digit favorites.
Prediction
Both teams boast stout defenses capable of slowing down opposing offenses. With Duke aiming to control the clock and Ole Miss’ defense excelling in key moments, this game is set to be a low-scoring affair. Expect a grind-it-out game that stays under the total.
Pick: Under 51.5 (-110)
Kingpin PRO
Get ranked cards and line-move alerts in the app
Tracked experts, Edge scores, and alerts on iPhone and Android.
Simulated results. Entertainment only. Gambling involves risk.Methodology and disclosure
Historical Kingpin articles preserve original body copy, authors, and publication dates. Structured pick or odds modules appear only when the source article provides them.
Kingpin PRO
Track this game in the Kingpin app
Transparent simulated records. Entertainment only.
Simulated results. Entertainment only. Gambling involves risk.Simulated results for entertainment. Gambling involves risk. Bet only where legal.
