UFC Best Bets - August 22, 2026

UFC best bets for August 22, 2026. This card covers all 27 scheduled games and ranks the bets from strongest to weakest. The order matters: the first plays have the best mix of price and current win probability.

Use the listed sportsbook price as the target. A worse line can wipe out the value, especially on favorites and alternate spreads. Odds move throughout the day, so compare books before placing anything.

UFC best bets ranked

1. #1 Terrance Chatman vs Anthony Wint: Terrance Chatman at +750
2. #2 Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder: Roman Dolidze at +340
3. #3 Mason Jones vs Marquel Mederos: Marquel Mederos at +290
4. #4 Ketlen Vieira vs Cris Cyborg: Ketlen Vieira at +316
5. #5 Vitor Petrino vs Sergey Spivak: Sergey Spivak at +140
6. #6 Elise Reed vs Shanelle Dyer: Elise Reed at +600
7. #7 Ryan Kuse vs Márcio Barbosa: Ryan Kuse +5.5 at +475
8. #8 Jeisla Chaves vs Carli Judice: Jeisla Chaves at +450
9. #9 Sabrinna de Sousa vs Taila Santos: Taila Santos at -150
10. #10 Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev: Shamil Gaziev at -125
11. #11 Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey: Over 1.5 at +161
12. #12 Lerryan Douglas vs Jamall Emmers: Jamall Emmers at +320
13. #13 Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony Hernandez: Gregory Rodrigues at +170
14. #14 Makkasharip Zaynukov vs Natan Schulte: Natan Schulte at +149
15. #15 Roland Dunlap vs Luke Trainer: Roland Dunlap at +300
16. #16 Nkosi Ndebele vs Marcirley Alves da Silva: Nkosi Ndebele at +165
17. #17 Morquez Forest vs Dakota Bush: Morquez Forest at +165
18. #18 Daniel Marcos vs Magomed Magomedov: Magomed Magomedov at +145
19. #19 James Vake vs Eoin Sheridan: James Vake at +570
20. #20 Robert Watley vs Gino van Steenis: Robert Watley at +157
21. #21 Joaquin Buckley vs Tyron Woodley: Tyron Woodley at -190
22. #22 Javid Basharat vs Movsar Ibragimov: Javid Basharat at -230
23. #23 Omran Chaaban vs Florim Zendeli: Omran Chaaban at -140
24. #24 Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast: Over 2.5 at -200
25. #25 Henry Cejudo vs Merab Dvalishvili: Henry Cejudo at +101
26. #26 Stan Dorsainvil vs Gauge Young: Gauge Young at -159
27. #27 Tracy Reeder vs Gadzhi Rabadanov: Gadzhi Rabadanov at -2200

#1 Terrance Chatman vs Anthony Wint

Best bet: Terrance Chatman (+750) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #1

Terrance Chatman is available at +750 at BetMGM. The no-vig market is 12.4% compared with a 11.8% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Terrance Chatman at +750 (BetMGM) — 12.4% market win probability vs 11.8% break-even.
• Spread: Terrance Chatman +3.5 at +500 (Bovada) — 16.7% market win probability vs 16.7% break-even.
• Over / Under: Over 1.5 at +207 (BetOnline) — 31.6% market win probability vs 32.6% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#2 Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder

Best bet: Roman Dolidze (+340) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #2

Roman Dolidze is available at +340 at Caesars. The no-vig market is 23.3% compared with a 22.7% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Roman Dolidze at +340 (Caesars) — 23.3% market win probability vs 22.7% break-even.
• Spread: Reinier de Ridder -5.5 at -125 (Bovada) — 52% market win probability vs 55.6% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at +125 (BetOnline) — 44.5% market win probability vs 44.4% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#3 Mason Jones vs Marquel Mederos

Best bet: Marquel Mederos (+290) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #3

Marquel Mederos is available at +290 at Caesars. The no-vig market is 26.2% compared with a 25.6% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Marquel Mederos at +290 (Caesars) — 26.2% market win probability vs 25.6% break-even.
• Spread: Mason Jones -3.5 at -125 (Bovada) — 52.7% market win probability vs 55.6% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at +174 (BetOnline) — 36.3% market win probability vs 36.5% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#4 Ketlen Vieira vs Cris Cyborg

Best bet: Ketlen Vieira (+316) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #4

Ketlen Vieira is available at +316 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 24.4% compared with a 24% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Ketlen Vieira at +316 (BetOnline) — 24.4% market win probability vs 24% break-even.
• Over / Under: Over 2.5 at -140 (BetOnline) — 56.2% market win probability vs 58.3% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#5 Vitor Petrino vs Sergey Spivak

Best bet: Sergey Spivak (+140) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #5

Sergey Spivak is available at +140 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 42.1% compared with a 41.7% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Sergey Spivak at +140 (BetOnline) — 42.1% market win probability vs 41.7% break-even.
• Spread: Vitor Petrino -3.5 at +105 (Bovada) — 46.2% market win probability vs 48.8% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 1.5 at +180 (BetOnline) — 35.3% market win probability vs 35.7% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#6 Elise Reed vs Shanelle Dyer

Best bet: Elise Reed (+600) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #6

Elise Reed is available at +600 at Bovada. The no-vig market is 14.4% compared with a 14.3% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Elise Reed at +600 (Bovada) — 14.4% market win probability vs 14.3% break-even.
• Spread: Elise Reed +7.5 at +165 (DraftKings) — 36.1% market win probability vs 37.7% break-even.
• Over / Under: Over 2.5 at +120 (BetOnline) — 44.1% market win probability vs 45.5% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#7 Ryan Kuse vs Márcio Barbosa

Best bet: Ryan Kuse +5.5 (+475) · Spread · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #7

Ryan Kuse +5.5 is available at +475 at Bovada. The no-vig market is 17.5% compared with a 17.4% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Ryan Kuse at +600 (Caesars) — 14% market win probability vs 14.3% break-even.
• Spread: Ryan Kuse +5.5 at +475 (Bovada) — 17.5% market win probability vs 17.4% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 1.5 at -265 (Betus) — 69.9% market win probability vs 72.6% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#8 Jeisla Chaves vs Carli Judice

Best bet: Jeisla Chaves (+450) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #8

Jeisla Chaves is available at +450 at Bovada. The no-vig market is 18.2% compared with a 18.2% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Jeisla Chaves at +450 (Bovada) — 18.2% market win probability vs 18.2% break-even.
• Spread: Jeisla Chaves +7.5 at +105 (Bovada) — 46.9% market win probability vs 48.8% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at +120 (BetOnline) — 44.4% market win probability vs 45.5% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#9 Sabrinna de Sousa vs Taila Santos

Best bet: Taila Santos (-150) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #9

Taila Santos is available at -150 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 59.6% compared with a 60% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Taila Santos at -150 (BetOnline) — 59.6% market win probability vs 60% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at +200 (BetOnline) — 32.1% market win probability vs 33.3% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#10 Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev

Best bet: Shamil Gaziev (-125) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #10

Shamil Gaziev is available at -125 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 55.1% compared with a 55.6% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Shamil Gaziev at -125 (BetOnline) — 55.1% market win probability vs 55.6% break-even.
• Spread: Kennedy Nzechukwu +3.5 at -125 (Bovada) — 52.7% market win probability vs 55.6% break-even.
• Over / Under: Over 1.5 at -125 (Betus) — 53.5% market win probability vs 55.6% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#11 Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey

Best bet: Over 1.5 (+161) · Over / Under · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #11

Over 1.5 is available at +161 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 37.8% compared with a 38.3% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Wes Schultz at +154 (FanDuel) — 38.7% market win probability vs 39.4% break-even.
• Spread: Wes Schultz +3.5 at +105 (Bovada) — 46.2% market win probability vs 48.8% break-even.
• Over / Under: Over 1.5 at +161 (BetOnline) — 37.8% market win probability vs 38.3% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#12 Lerryan Douglas vs Jamall Emmers

Best bet: Jamall Emmers (+320) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #12

Jamall Emmers is available at +320 at Caesars. The no-vig market is 23.5% compared with a 23.8% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Jamall Emmers at +320 (Caesars) — 23.5% market win probability vs 23.8% break-even.
• Spread: Lerryan Douglas -5.5 at -275 (Bovada) — 68.8% market win probability vs 73.3% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 1.5 at -165 (Betus) — 60.6% market win probability vs 62.3% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#13 Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony Hernandez

Best bet: Gregory Rodrigues (+170) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #13

Gregory Rodrigues is available at +170 at Caesars. The no-vig market is 36.6% compared with a 37% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Gregory Rodrigues at +170 (Caesars) — 36.6% market win probability vs 37% break-even.
• Spread: Gregory Rodrigues +13.5 at -105 (DraftKings) — 49.5% market win probability vs 51.2% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 3.5 at -195 (BetOnline) — 64.1% market win probability vs 66.1% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#14 Makkasharip Zaynukov vs Natan Schulte

Best bet: Natan Schulte (+149) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #14

Natan Schulte is available at +149 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 39.5% compared with a 40.2% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Natan Schulte at +149 (BetOnline) — 39.5% market win probability vs 40.2% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at +200 (BetOnline) — 32.1% market win probability vs 33.3% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#15 Roland Dunlap vs Luke Trainer

Best bet: Roland Dunlap (+300) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #15

Roland Dunlap is available at +300 at FanDuel. The no-vig market is 24.5% compared with a 25% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Roland Dunlap at +300 (FanDuel) — 24.5% market win probability vs 25% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 1.5 at -130 (BetOnline) — 54.3% market win probability vs 56.5% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#16 Nkosi Ndebele vs Marcirley Alves da Silva

Best bet: Nkosi Ndebele (+165) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #16

Nkosi Ndebele is available at +165 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 36.9% compared with a 37.7% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Nkosi Ndebele at +165 (BetOnline) — 36.9% market win probability vs 37.7% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at +174 (BetOnline) — 35.4% market win probability vs 36.5% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#17 Morquez Forest vs Dakota Bush

Best bet: Morquez Forest (+165) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #17

Morquez Forest is available at +165 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 36.7% compared with a 37.7% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Morquez Forest at +165 (BetOnline) — 36.7% market win probability vs 37.7% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 1.5 at +157 (BetOnline) — 37.7% market win probability vs 38.9% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#18 Daniel Marcos vs Magomed Magomedov

Best bet: Magomed Magomedov (+145) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #18

Magomed Magomedov is available at +145 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 39.7% compared with a 40.8% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Magomed Magomedov at +145 (BetOnline) — 39.7% market win probability vs 40.8% break-even.
• Over / Under: Over 2.5 at -210 (BetOnline) — 65.5% market win probability vs 67.7% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#19 James Vake vs Eoin Sheridan

Best bet: James Vake (+570) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #19

James Vake is available at +570 at FanDuel. The no-vig market is 14.5% compared with a 14.9% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: James Vake at +570 (FanDuel) — 14.5% market win probability vs 14.9% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 1.5 at -125 (BetOnline) — 53.2% market win probability vs 55.6% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#20 Robert Watley vs Gino van Steenis

Best bet: Robert Watley (+157) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #20

Robert Watley is available at +157 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 37.8% compared with a 38.9% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Robert Watley at +157 (BetOnline) — 37.8% market win probability vs 38.9% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 1.5 at -105 (BetOnline) — 48.9% market win probability vs 51.2% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#21 Joaquin Buckley vs Tyron Woodley

Best bet: Tyron Woodley (-190) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #21

Tyron Woodley is available at -190 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 63.5% compared with a 65.5% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Tyron Woodley at -190 (BetOnline) — 63.5% market win probability vs 65.5% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#22 Javid Basharat vs Movsar Ibragimov

Best bet: Javid Basharat (-230) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #22

Javid Basharat is available at -230 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 67.3% compared with a 69.7% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Javid Basharat at -230 (BetOnline) — 67.3% market win probability vs 69.7% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at +192 (BetOnline) — 32.9% market win probability vs 34.2% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#23 Omran Chaaban vs Florim Zendeli

Best bet: Omran Chaaban (-140) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #23

Omran Chaaban is available at -140 at FanDuel. The no-vig market is 56% compared with a 58.3% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Omran Chaaban at -140 (FanDuel) — 56% market win probability vs 58.3% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#24 Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast

Best bet: Over 2.5 (-200) · Total · BEST BET

Why this bet ranks #24

The current probability and price clear today’s betting threshold. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Chris Padilla at -105 (FanDuel) — 49.8% market win probability vs 51.2% break-even.
• Spread: Chris Padilla +3.5 at -225 (DraftKings) — 64.7% market win probability vs 69.2% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at +180 (BetOnline) — 34.8% market win probability vs 35.7% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#25 Henry Cejudo vs Merab Dvalishvili

Best bet: Henry Cejudo (+101) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #25

Henry Cejudo is available at +101 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 47.6% compared with a 49.8% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Henry Cejudo at +101 (BetOnline) — 47.6% market win probability vs 49.8% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#26 Stan Dorsainvil vs Gauge Young

Best bet: Gauge Young (-159) · Moneyline · BEST BET

Why this bet ranks #26

The current probability and price clear today’s betting threshold. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Stan Dorsainvil at +145 (Caesars) — 40.4% market win probability vs 40.8% break-even.
• Spread: Stan Dorsainvil +5.5 at -200 (Bovada) — 62.5% market win probability vs 66.7% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at +161 (BetOnline) — 37.5% market win probability vs 38.3% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#27 Tracy Reeder vs Gadzhi Rabadanov

Best bet: Gadzhi Rabadanov (-2200) · Moneyline · BEST BET

Why this bet ranks #27

The current probability and price clear today’s betting threshold. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Tracy Reeder at +1396 (BetOnline) — 7.6% market win probability vs 6.7% break-even.
• Over / Under: Over 1.5 at -150 (BetOnline) — 58% market win probability vs 60% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

Final UFC betting card

The list above is already ordered from best to worst. Start at the top, demand the listed price, and skip any play after a bad line move. Smaller edges belong lower on the card and should not be treated like the top bet.

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Bet only what you can afford to lose. Odds and lineups can change.