ALDS Game 3: Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Best Bets & Player Props (October 7, 2025)

The Toronto Blue Jays are one win away from completing a stunning sweep of the New York Yankees as the 2025 ALDS shifts to Yankee Stadium for Game 3. Toronto’s bats have been red-hot, outscoring New York 23-8 across the first two games, while the Yankees suddenly find themselves in a win-or-go-home situation on their own turf.

First pitch is scheduled for 5:08 PM ET at Yankee Stadium, with coverage on FS1. The Blue Jays will hand the ball to Shane Bieber, while the Yankees counter with Carlos Rodón as they fight to keep their season alive.

Game Overview

Both teams finished the regular season 94–68, but Toronto’s consistency since September has been unmatched. Their pitching depth and balanced offense have neutralized New York’s power through the first two games, forcing the Yankees to play from behind early and often.

Now, the question is whether Toronto can finish the job, or if New York — led by MVP candidate Aaron Judge — can claw back and extend the series.

• Location: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
• Time: 5:08 PM ET
• TV: FS1
• Odds: Yankees -150 | Blue Jays +125 | Total: 7.5 runs

Pitching Matchup

Shane Bieber (TOR) makes his first postseason start of 2025 after being acquired midseason from Cleveland. Bieber’s command and pitch sequencing have been sharp down the stretch, posting a 2.91 ERA in September. His slider has regained bite, generating a 37% whiff rate since the trade. If he spots his fastball early and forces Yankee hitters to chase breaking balls off the plate, he can navigate this lineup effectively.

Carlos Rodón (NYY) carries a heavier burden. After a 4.50 ERA in his Game 1 appearance against Toronto last week, he’ll need to control the zone and miss bats high with his four-seamer. The Blue Jays hammered his mistakes in the middle of the plate, launching two homers and forcing him into 30 pitches in the first inning alone. Rodón’s success depends on neutralizing Toronto’s right-handed power — especially Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer.

Blue Jays Momentum

Toronto’s offensive explosion has been led by veterans who have flipped the script on expectations. George Springer is batting .471 this postseason with two home runs, while Bo Bichette — despite a sore hamstring — has delivered clutch RBIs. The Blue Jays have outslugged and outhit the Yankees in every category, averaging 11.5 runs per game through the first two contests.

Manager John Schneider has also managed his bullpen aggressively, using setup men Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson efficiently to preserve energy for potential late-inning leverage tonight. With a fully rested pen and a hot lineup, Toronto enters Game 3 with confidence and balance.

Yankees Desperation

New York faces elimination for the first time at home since 2020, and the pressure is squarely on their offense. Aaron Judge has been sensational all year (.331 AVG, 53 HR, 114 RBI), but the supporting cast — particularly Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo — has gone cold at the worst time. The Yankees have hit just .221 with runners in scoring position this postseason.

Expect Aaron Boone to shorten his rotation and bullpen usage, potentially leaning on relievers early if Rodón struggles again. This is do-or-die baseball, and the Yankees can’t afford to let the Jays build another early lead.

Best Player Props for Game 3

Stat Trends to Consider

• Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last six games vs the Yankees (regular season + postseason).
• The total has gone Over 7.5 in five straight Toronto games.
• Yankees are 1-5 in their last six playoff games at home.
• Springer and Guerrero have combined for 9 RBIs in this series.

Final Thoughts

This is a defining game for both franchises — Toronto can punch its ticket to the ALCS for the first time since 2016, while the Yankees face another offseason of questions if they fall short. Bieber’s poise and experience give the Jays a steady hand on the mound, and their lineup depth has consistently punished left-handed pitching.

New York will undoubtedly come out with urgency, and if Judge delivers a statement early, momentum could shift. But unless Rodón rediscover his command and the Yankees string together consistent contact, the Blue Jays’ offensive firepower and bullpen edge should carry them to a series-clinching win.

Prediction