Laying less than a field goal at Sanford with Georgia’s front seven trending up is fair. Alabama has explosive perimeter skill (Bernard) and a live arm in Simpson, but the Dawgs’ balanced run game with Frazier plus situational defense at home should tilt high-leverage downs. UGA’s red-zone efficiency and special teams edge nudge this inside the number.

Projected: UGA 27–20

Wake’s offense under Ashford has been turnover-prone and protection is shaky versus pressure. Tech can dictate with Haynes on the ground and lean on tempo-controlled drives that stress a Deacs defense thin vs the run. If GT gets to +1 turnover margin, two-score separation is live.

Projected: GT 31–13

USC’s offense is multiple with Maiava’s efficiency and Will Jordan’s chunk runs. Illinois can score, but their back-end has leaked explosives and struggles versus motion/stack looks Lemon thrives on. If USC avoids drive-killing penalties, their EPA/play edge should carry this through seven.

Projected: USC 38–27

Arkansas is a handful with Taylen Green’s dual-threat profile, but ND’s front can compress the pocket without overcommitting spies. The Irish have a physical advantage in the trenches and a red-zone success rate boost versus an Arkansas defense that’s allowed too many goal-to-go conversions.

Projected: ND 31–24

Barnes has quietly been efficient and the Aggies have enough passing game to trade for stretches. Vandy should win, but catching more than three scores against a competent offense is attractive, especially with backdoor potential if the ‘Dores shorten the game late.

Projected: VAN 38–24

Hostile trip for a young QB in Sayin against a Huskies run game that can shorten and finish drives (Jaylen Coleman’s TD rate is elite). OSU’s talent wins plenty of snaps, but UW’s home environment plus ground game keeps this within one score.

Projected: OSU 27–23

Lane’s offense has multiple answers with Lacy on the ground and Wallace vertically. LSU’s offense is steady with Nussmeier, but their defense has been leaky on explosive passes. At under a field goal, Rebels’ home edge and finishing drives give them the nod.

Projected: MISS 34–28

Connor Weigman’s successor Reed has this passing game humming with Craver as a matchup nightmare. Auburn’s run game (Cobb) travels, but Kyle Field plus Aggies’ third-down defense is a big situational swing. If A&M gets a +1 explosive differential, they’re live to win by 10–13.

Projected: TA&M 31–20

Mendoza’s efficiency and Cooper’s vertical threat stretch a Hawkeyes defense that has bent more than usual against tempo. Iowa’s offense lacks explosives; if they’re behind the chains, Indiana’s pass rush can pin ears back. Lay it to two scores.

Projected: IU 28–13

Tennessee’s offense is rolling behind Aguilar and Brazzell, but Davis Wade is a nasty venue and MSU can trade scores. Catching more than a TD with a home team that can run and finish drives is valuable; live dog to the wire.

Projected: TENN 34–31

Becht is protecting the ball and ISU’s defense is top-tier tackling in space. Arizona’s ground game with Mahdi travels, but the Cyclones’ red-zone defense and special teams are the separator. Jack Trice juice pushes this beyond a field goal late.

Projected: ISU 27–20

Dillon Moore’s poise plus Oregon’s OL cohesion make them road-ready. Penn State is physical with Allen, but if this becomes a third-and-medium game, Oregon’s pass concepts and Moore’s mobility keep it inside a field goal either way.

Projected: PSU 27–26

Huge number, but Mizzou’s rushing attack with Hardy and an efficient Pribula passing game create avalanche potential versus a thin UMass front. Tigers have multiple ways to 50+. Hold your nose, but ceiling and depth matter here.

Projected: MIZ 55–7

Cougars have a trench and tackling advantage, and they’re comfortable playing four-minute offense late behind LJ Martin. Colorado’s passing flashes are real, but BYU’s situational defense (3rd & red zone) is the matchup key.

Projected: BYU 27–17