Kingpin analysis
Noche UFC: Lopes vs Silva — Best Bets & Full-Card Picks
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva — Best Bets & Full-Card Picks
September 13, 2025 • Frost Bank Center, San Antonio • Main Card on ESPN+ (3:00 PM ET), Prelims on ESPN+ (12:00 PM ET)
Below are moneyline picks for every bout with the odds you provided, a short stylistic breakdown, and a confidence rating (1–5). Odds can move; always shop around.
Featherweight — Diego Lopes (+205) vs. Jean Silva (-255)
Pick: Diego Lopes (+205) — Confidence 3/5
Silva’s pressure boxing and first-layer TDD make him a deserved favorite, but Lopes is a high-leverage submission hunter who creates scrambles off counters and level-change feints. In longer exchanges he mixes jabs and kicks into back-takes and front-headlock chains. In a volatile fight, the dog price on Lopes’ finishing pathways (club-and-sub or opportunistic back take) is worth a stab.
Bantamweight — Rob Font (-110) vs. David Martinez (-110)
Pick: Rob Font (-110) — Confidence 3/5
Font’s jab-first, high-volume boxing and veteran timing typically win minutes against rising punchers. Martinez brings power and momentum, but Font’s 1–2/low-kick cadence and clinch awareness usually steady the optics over 15 minutes.
Lightweight — Rafa Garcia (+210) vs. Jared Gordon (-260)
Pick: Jared Gordon (-260) — Confidence 3/5
Garcia’s best route is grindy fence time and mat returns; Gordon’s footwork, defensive wrestling, and combination punching can keep it at his range. Expect Gordon to edge a decision on cleaner entries and counters.
Middleweight — Kelvin Gastelum (-250) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+200)
Pick: Kelvin Gastelum (-250) — Confidence 3/5
Gastelum’s southpaw cross and pocket hand speed, paired with sturdy takedown defense and get-ups, make him a tough minutes-winner. Stoltzfus is improved, but KG’s strength of schedule and boxing edge lean his way.
Lightweight — Alexander Hernandez (-105) vs. Diego Ferreira (-115)
Pick: Diego Ferreira (-115) — Confidence 2/5
Hernandez is explosive early; Ferreira’s pressure, body work, and wrestling in transitions tend to wear down fast starters. Survive R1, then pull away late is the recipe.
Bantamweight — Santiago Luna (-135) vs. Quang Le (+115)
Pick: Santiago Luna (-135) — Confidence 2/5
Tape suggests Luna’s the tidier technician with counter jabs and a wrestle-back pocket if Le overextends on kicks. Competitive, but Luna’s layered approach gets the nod.
Middleweight — José Daniel Medina (+290) vs. Duško Todorović (-380)
Pick: Duško Todorović (-380) — Confidence 3/5
Bigger hitter, stronger in clinch/body-lock sequences, and should press forward to rack up damage optics if he manages risk on entries.
Lightweight — Claudio Puelles (-115) vs. Joaquim Silva (-105)
Pick: Claudio Puelles (-115) — Confidence 2/5
Silva throws heat, but Puelles’ leg-lock threats and top control can stall output and steal rounds. If he gets extended grappling windows, he’s the side.
Women’s Strawweight — Tatiana Suarez (-500) vs. Amanda Lemos (+350)
Pick: Tatiana Suarez (-500) — Confidence 4/5
Stylistic control: chain wrestling, mat returns, and smothering top pressure. Lemos carries one-shot danger, but sustained defensive wrestling has been her hurdle.
Flyweight — Jesús Aguilar (+170) vs. Luis Gurule (-200)
Pick: Jesús Aguilar (+170) — Confidence 2/5
Live dog. Aguilar thrives in scrambles with guillotine/back-take threats; if he can force clinch chaos, he can flip minutes or find a finish.
Middleweight — Zachary Reese (-250) vs. Sedriques Dumas (+200)
Pick: Sedriques Dumas (+200) — Confidence 2/5
Price play. Dumas is the calmer striker now, with counter knees and improved clinch awareness; Reese’s defense in transitions is exploitable for a dog sprinkle.
Flyweight — Alessandro Costa (-400) vs. Alden Coria (+300)
Pick: Alessandro Costa (-400) — Confidence 4/5
Sharper counters, damaging calf kicks, and better shot selection at flyweight pace; Coria’s volume is game, but the quality moments skew Costa.
Women’s Bantamweight — Montserrat Rendon (+125) vs. Alice Pereira (-150)
Pick: Alice Pereira (-150) — Confidence 2/5
Cleaner pocket mechanics, better first-layer TDD, and counters that should limit Rendon’s clinch control game.
Welterweight — Rodrigo Sezinando (+185) vs. Daniil Donchenko (-225)
Pick: Daniil Donchenko (-225) — Confidence 3/5
Longer frame, jab-first striking, and a credible wrestling fallback if the exchanges get messy. Minute-winning profile.
Quick Moneyline Recap (with confidence)
Lopes +205 (3/5), Font -110 (3/5), Gordon -260 (3/5), Gastelum -250 (3/5), Ferreira -115 (2/5), Luna -135 (2/5), Todorović -380 (3/5), Puelles -115 (2/5), Suarez -500 (4/5), Aguilar +170 (2/5), Dumas +200 (2/5), Costa -400 (4/5), Pereira -150 (2/5), Donchenko -225 (3/5).
Note: Lines you supplied are shown above; shop numbers and monitor weigh-ins/late scratches before betting.
Kingpin PRO
Follow ranked bettors with tracked cards
This article is free analysis. PRO unlocks today’s verified bettor inventory and alerts.
Simulated results. Entertainment only. Gambling involves risk.Methodology and disclosure
Historical Kingpin articles preserve original body copy, authors, and publication dates. Structured pick or odds modules appear only when the source article provides them.
Kingpin PRO
Continue with Kingpin PRO
Transparent simulated records. Entertainment only.
Simulated results. Entertainment only. Gambling involves risk.Simulated results for entertainment. Gambling involves risk. Bet only where legal.