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MLB Total Picks and Predictions: St. Louis Cardinals vs Texas Rangers 7/30

MLB Total Picks and Predictions: St. Louis Cardinals vs Texas Rangers 7/30
Game Summary
The St. Louis Cardinals are set to face off against the Texas Rangers on July 30 at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. With both teams looking to solidify their standings, this matchup is crucial. The Cardinals come into this game with a record of 54-51, currently sitting third in the NL Central. Their recent performances have shown a mix of resilience and inconsistency, particularly at home where they have a .529 winning percentage. On the other hand, the Texas Rangers, with a record of 51-55, are struggling to find their footing in the AL West, ranking fourth. They have faced challenges on the road, holding a .407 winning percentage away from home. The Cardinals are led by Lance Lynn, a veteran pitcher who has posted a 4.17 ERA this season with a solid strikeout rate. The Rangers will counter with Max Scherzer, a former Cy Young Award winner, who has a slightly better ERA of 3.57. Historically, these teams have had competitive matchups, but recent trends indicate that both lineups have been struggling to consistently produce runs. Given the stakes and the talent on the mound, this game is likely to be a nail-biter. The over/under for this game is set at 8.5 runs, which reflects the uncertainty surrounding the offensive capabilities of both teams. With the weather expected to be mostly cloudy and temperatures around 90°F, conditions will be conducive for a baseball game, but the humidity could play a role in how the pitchers perform.
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Odds and Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over | -115 |
| Under | -105 |
| Point Total | 8.5 |
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Pitching Probables
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer (TEX) | 2-3 | 3.57 | 1.08 | 35.1 | 31 | 33 | 7 | 5 |
| Lance Lynn (STL) | 5-4 | 4.17 | 1.39 | 101.1 | 101 | 94 | 40 | 14 |
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Team Previews
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals have had a mixed season so far, with a batting average of .245 which ranks them 13th in the league. They have scored 433 runs, placing them 24th overall. Their pitching staff has an ERA of 4.09, ranking 19th. Key players include Alec Burleson, who leads the team with a .285 average and 60 RBIs, and Nolan Gorman, who has hit 19 home runs this season. Despite their struggles, the Cardinals have shown they can compete, especially at home where they hold a winning record.
Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers' season has not been without its challenges. Their batting average of .240 puts them 18th in the league, with 452 runs scored, ranking them 18th as well. Their pitching has been slightly better with a 4.05 ERA, ranking 16th. Notable players include Josh Smith, who has a .282 batting average, and Corey Seager, who leads the team with 19 home runs. The Rangers are looking to improve their road record, which has been a point of concern, notably with only 22 wins away from home.
Team Injuries
St. Louis Cardinals
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Matz | SP | Back | Expected to be out until at least Aug 16 |
| Riley O'Brien | RP | Forearm | Expected to be out until at least Jul 29 |
Texas Rangers
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Gray | SP | Groin | Expected to be out until at least Aug 2 |
| Tyler Mahle | SP | Elbow | Expected to be out until at least Aug 5 |
| Cody Bradford | SP | Ribs | Expected to be out until at least Jul 29 |
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals are 3-2 in their last five games.
- Texas Rangers are 4-1 in their last five games.
- The total has gone under in 4 of the Cardinals' last 5 games.
- The total has gone over in 3 of the Rangers' last 5 games.
- Cardinals are 5-10 in their last 15 games against the Rangers.
Recent Games
St. Louis Cardinals
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ Atlanta | Postponed | Postponed |
| @ Atlanta | L3-2 F/10 | L |
| @ Atlanta | W9-5 | W |
| @ Atlanta | W6-2 | W |
| @ Pittsburgh | L2-1 | L |
Texas Rangers
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Baltimore | L9-1 | L |
| vs Baltimore | L8-4 | L |
| vs Baltimore | W3-2 | W |
| vs Chicago | W4-3 F/10 | W |
| vs Chicago | W3-2 | W |
Team Rankings
| Team | Hitting | Starting Pitching | Relief Pitching | Fielding |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 13th | 19th | 2nd | 26th |
| Texas Rangers | 18th | 16th | Tied-24th | Tied-27th |
Significant Betting Stats
- Cardinals are 3-6 in their last 9 games against AL teams.
- Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 against NL teams.
- The total has gone under in 6 of the last 8 games for the Cardinals.
- The Rangers are 6-0 in their last 6 games against teams with winning records.
- Cardinals have lost 12 of their last 17 games overall.
- Texas has won 5 of their last 6 road games.
- The total has gone under in 5 of the last 7 games for the Rangers.
- Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 home games.
- Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 games following an off day.
- St. Louis is 4-9 in their last 13 home games against a right-handed starter.
Weather
The weather for the game is expected to be mostly cloudy with temperatures around 90°F.
Prediction
Given the recent performances of both teams and the pitching matchup, the prediction leans towards the total going under 8.5 runs. While both teams have the potential to score, their recent trends indicate a struggle to consistently put up runs. Scherzer's ability to limit damage and Lynn's experience on the mound suggest a competitive game that may not see many runs. Therefore, the specific pick is:
Pick: Under 8.5 runs
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