MLB Player Props Betting Analysis: Braves vs Mets 7/27

MLB Player Props Betting Analysis: Braves vs Mets 7/27

Photo Credit: © Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Game Summary

The Atlanta Braves look to halt their six-game losing streak as they face off against the New York Mets on Saturday, July 27, 2024, at 4:10 p.m. EDT at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Both teams are vying for a better position in the NL East standings, with the Braves sitting at 54-48 and the Mets slightly ahead at 55-48.

In recent performances, the Mets have shown a stronger form, going 7-3 in their last 10 games with a .243 batting average and a 3.64 ERA. They have outscored their opponents by 15 runs during this stretch. The Braves, on the other hand, have struggled with a 3-7 record in their last 10 games, a .223 batting average, and a 4.54 ERA, being outscored by 16 runs.

Historically, the Mets have had the upper hand this season, leading the series 5-3 in their eight previous encounters. The Mets have a solid home record of 28-26 and an overall record of 55-48. Notably, they have excelled in games where they score five or more runs, boasting a 38-15 record. The Braves, with a 54-48 overall record and a 24-27 road record, have a stellar performance when they out-hit their opponents, holding a 40-8 record in such games.

This game features an intriguing pitching matchup with Spencer Schwellenbach (3-5, 4.62 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 49 strikeouts) starting for the Braves and Tylor Megill (2-4, 5.08 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 49 strikeouts) taking the mound for the Mets.

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Player Prop Odds for Matt Olson

Here are the player prop odds for Matt Olson in the upcoming game:

• Batter Doubles (Over 0.5): +460
• Batter Hits (Over 0.5): -170
• Batter Home Runs (Over 0.5): +420
• Batter RBIs (Over 0.5): +135
• Batter Runs Scored (Over 0.5): -130
• Batter Singles (Over 0.5): +115
• Batter Total Bases (Over 1.5): +145

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Player Analysis: Matt Olson

Matt Olson has been one of the standout performers for the Braves this season. He is currently hitting .249 with 884 hits, ranking 9th in MLB. Olson has also contributed significantly with 29 home runs and 81 RBIs, making him a key player in the Braves' lineup.

In the last 10 games, Olson has continued his strong form, hitting .308 with 2 home runs and 8 RBIs. His ability to get on base and drive in runs will be crucial for the Braves as they look to end their losing streak.

Opposing Analysis: New York Mets Pitching

The Mets' pitching staff has been solid this season, with a team ERA of 3.52, ranking 3rd in MLB. However, Tylor Megill, who is starting against the Braves, has had a mixed season with a 5.08 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over 39 innings pitched. Megill has allowed 37 hits and 19 walks while striking out 49.

Megill's vulnerability to giving up hits and walks could be an opportunity for Olson to capitalize and make an impact in this game. The Mets' bullpen, ranked 14th in saves with 26, will also need to be on alert against the Braves' powerful lineup.

Pitching Probables

Pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	Strikeouts
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL)	3-5	4.62	1.16	49
Tylor Megill (NYM)	2-4	5.08	1.44	49

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Team Previews

Atlanta Braves

The Braves have had a solid season with a 54-48 record, ranking 3rd in the NL East. Their hitting has been one of their strengths, ranking 5th in MLB with 504 runs scored and 9th with 884 hits. They have a team batting average of .249, which ranks 11th.

On the pitching side, the Braves have a team ERA of 4.15, ranking 21st. Their bullpen has been effective, ranking 9th in saves with 28. However, their defense has struggled with 70 errors, ranking 3rd in MLB.

New York Mets

The Mets have also had a strong season, sitting 2nd in the NL East with a 55-48 record. Their pitching has been their standout feature, with a team ERA of 3.52, ranking 3rd in MLB. The Mets have also been solid defensively, with only 45 errors, ranking 27th.

Offensively, the Mets have scored 428 runs, ranking 21st, and have a team batting average of .240, ranking 18th. Their hitting has been inconsistent, but key players like Francisco Lindor and Jose Iglesias have stepped up recently.

Team Injuries

Atlanta Braves

Player	Position	Injury Status
Michael Harris II	CF	60-Day IL (hamstring)
Ozzie Albies	2B	10-Day IL (wrist)
Max Fried	SP	15-Day IL (forearm)
Spencer Strider	SP	60-Day IL (elbow)
Ronald Acuna Jr.	RF	60-Day IL (knee)

New York Mets

Player	Position	Injury Status
Kodai Senga	SP	Day-to-day (calf)
Shintaro Fujinami	RP	60-Day IL (shoulder)
Harrison Bader	CF	Day-to-day (ankle)
Christian Scott	RP	15-Day IL (elbow)
Starling Marte	RF	10-Day IL (knee)

Recent Games

Atlanta Braves

Opponent	Score	W/L
vs St. Louis	Postponed	Postponed
vs St. Louis	W 3-2 F/10	W
vs St. Louis	L 9-5	L
vs St. Louis	L 6-2	L
vs Cincinnati	L 4-1	L

New York Mets

Opponent	Score	W/L
@ Miami	W 1-0	W
@ Miami	L 4-2	L
@ Miami	W 6-4	W
@ New York	W 3-2	W
@ New York	W 12-3	W

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Prediction

Given Matt Olson's recent form and the vulnerabilities in Tylor Megill's pitching, we predict that Olson will have a productive game. The prop bet for Matt Olson to get over 0.5 RBIs at +135 looks particularly appealing. Olson has been a consistent run producer for the Braves, and with Megill's tendency to allow hits and walks, Olson is likely to have opportunities to drive in runs.

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