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UFC Vegas 97 Predictions: Burns vs. Brady - Alessandro Costa vs. Matt Schnell 

The flyweight division is set to deliver fireworks at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady, as Alessandro Costa takes on veteran Matt Schnell in a bout that promises high-paced action and potential for a spectacular finish. Scheduled for September 7, 2024, at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, this fight features two fighters with a knack for ending fights early, making it a must-watch contest for fans of the lighter weight classes.

 

Fighter Backgrounds

Alessandro Costa: The Brazilian Finisher

Alessandro Costa, fighting out of Lobo Gym MMA in Brazil, is quickly establishing himself as a dangerous contender in the UFC's flyweight division. At 28 years old, Costa holds a professional record of 14-4-0, with an impressive 11 of his wins coming by way of finish—five by knockout and six by submission. Known for his aggressive style and finishing ability, Costa has made a name for himself with his ability to end fights in a variety of ways.

Costa's rise in the MMA world began in regional promotions, where he captured multiple titles before making his way to the UFC. His UFC debut came in December 2022 against Amir Albazi, where he put on a valiant effort before being stopped in the third round. Costa rebounded strongly in 2023 and 2024, securing back-to-back knockout victories over Jimmy Flick and Kevin Borjas, demonstrating his lethal striking power.

Standing at 5'4" with a 125-pound frame, Costa is slightly undersized for the division, but he makes up for it with explosive power and technical proficiency. His striking is crisp and powerful, often leading to early finishes. Additionally, Costa’s submission game is highly advanced, with six of his wins coming via tapout, including a rare flying armbar submission early in his career. His ability to finish fights both on the feet and on the ground makes him a dual threat in the flyweight division.

Matt Schnell: The Veteran Known as "Danger"

Matt Schnell, fighting out of Fortis MMA in the United States, is a seasoned veteran with a wealth of experience in the UFC's flyweight division. At 34 years old, Schnell boasts a professional record of 16-8-0, with nine of those wins coming by submission. Known for his grappling prowess, Schnell has faced some of the toughest competition in the division and has built a reputation as a fighter who is always willing to engage in exciting battles.

Schnell’s UFC career has been a mix of highs and lows. He has secured notable victories over the likes of Jordan Espinosa and Sumudaerji, showcasing his ability to finish fights via submission. However, Schnell has also suffered from inconsistency, particularly when facing opponents with strong striking. His recent losses to Steve Erceg and Matheus Nicolau by knockout in the second round highlight a vulnerability to being finished early, which has become a concerning pattern in his career.

Despite his struggles, Schnell remains a dangerous opponent, especially on the ground. His submission game is his most potent weapon, with a variety of chokes and locks in his arsenal. Standing at 5'8" with a reach of 126 pounds, Schnell has a slight size advantage over Costa, which he could use to keep the fight at a range where he can implement his game plan. However, Schnell’s tendency to get caught in exchanges and his vulnerability to knockout power are significant concerns as he prepares to face a finisher like Costa.

Fighting Styles and Strategies

Alessandro Costa's Approach: Aggression and Versatility

Alessandro Costa’s fighting style is built on aggression and a well-rounded skill set. He is a fighter who likes to push the pace and take the fight to his opponent from the opening bell. Costa’s striking is powerful and precise, often leading to early finishes. His ability to mix up his strikes, targeting both the head and body, makes him a difficult opponent to defend against.

Costa’s ground game is equally impressive, with a strong submission arsenal that has been honed over years of training. His transitions on the ground are smooth, and he is always looking for opportunities to lock in submissions, whether from the top or bottom position. Costa’s ability to finish fights both standing and on the ground makes him a well-rounded and dangerous opponent for anyone in the flyweight division.

However, Costa’s aggressive style does come with risks. He sometimes leaves himself open to counters when charging forward, and his shorter reach could pose challenges against longer fighters like Schnell. To mitigate these risks, Costa will need to use his speed and explosiveness to close the distance quickly and land significant strikes or take the fight to the ground, where he can capitalize on his submission skills.

Matt Schnell's Strategy: Grappling and Survival

Matt Schnell’s fighting style is centered around his grappling and submission skills. Known for his dangerous ground game, Schnell is always looking to take the fight to the mat, where he can work his submissions. Schnell’s striking is serviceable, but he prefers to use it to set up his takedowns rather than engage in prolonged stand-up exchanges.

Schnell’s best path to victory in this fight is to avoid trading strikes with Costa and instead focus on getting the fight to the ground as quickly as possible. Once on the ground, Schnell’s submission game could pose significant problems for Costa, particularly if he can secure dominant positions. Schnell’s experience and ability to remain calm under pressure will be crucial in this fight, especially if he finds himself in difficult situations against Costa’s aggressive attacks.

However, Schnell’s recent track record of being finished in the second round or earlier is a significant concern. His chin has been tested multiple times, and his tendency to get caught in exchanges could be his downfall against a powerful striker like Costa. Schnell will need to be cautious and avoid getting into a brawl, as Costa’s power could quickly end the fight if Schnell leaves himself exposed.

Matchup Analysis

This fight is a classic striker versus grappler matchup, with Alessandro Costa’s knockout power and submission skills going up against Matt Schnell’s grappling expertise. Costa’s aggressive style and finishing ability make him the favorite in this matchup, particularly given Schnell’s recent struggles with being finished early in fights. Costa’s ability to mix up his striking and grappling could overwhelm Schnell, especially if the fight stays standing.

Schnell, on the other hand, will need to implement a more cautious and strategic approach. His best chance of winning this fight is to avoid getting caught in Costa’s power shots and instead focus on taking the fight to the ground. If Schnell can secure a takedown and work his submission game, he could find success. However, given Costa’s ability to finish fights both standing and on the ground, Schnell will need to be at the top of his game to survive the early rounds and implement his strategy.

The key to this fight will be who can impose their will first. If Costa can pressure Schnell and land significant strikes early, he has a strong chance of securing another finish. However, if Schnell can weather the storm and take the fight to the ground, his submission game could become a factor. Given Schnell’s tendency to be finished early and Costa’s finishing ability, the odds favor Costa in this matchup.

Potential Implications for the Flyweight Division

The flyweight division is highly competitive, and every fight has significant implications for the fighters involved. Alessandro Costa, with his exciting fighting style and finishing ability, has the potential to become a significant player in the division. A win over a veteran like Matt Schnell would be a statement victory and could propel Costa towards higher-ranked opponents and bigger fights.

Costa’s marketability as a finisher makes him a valuable asset to the UFC, and a victory here could see him fast-tracked towards a top-10 ranking. His ability to finish fights in multiple ways makes him a threat to anyone in the division, and a win over Schnell would only enhance his reputation as one of the most dangerous fighters in the flyweight ranks.

For Matt Schnell, this fight represents a crucial moment in his career. A loss to Costa, especially if it comes via another early finish, could put Schnell in a difficult position within the division . At 34 years old, Schnell is at a crossroads, and a win here is essential to keep his career on track. A victory over Costa would prove that Schnell still has what it takes to compete at a high level and could earn him another shot at a top-10 opponent.

The stakes are high for both fighters, and the outcome of this fight could have lasting implications for their careers. Costa is looking to establish himself as a future contender, while Schnell is fighting to remain relevant in a stacked division. This fight has all the ingredients for a high-stakes showdown, and the winner will take a significant step forward in their career.

Psychological and Intangible Factors

Psychologically, this fight will test the resilience of both fighters. Alessandro Costa is riding high after his recent victories, and his confidence will be a key factor in this fight. Costa’s belief in his ability to finish fights will likely fuel his aggressive approach, as he looks to add another highlight-reel finish to his resume. However, Costa must be careful not to underestimate Schnell’s experience and grappling skills, as overconfidence could lead to mistakes.

Matt Schnell, on the other hand, faces the challenge of bouncing back from a series of tough losses. Schnell’s mental toughness will be tested, as he must find a way to overcome the psychological impact of being finished in multiple recent fights. Schnell’s experience will be crucial here, as he will need to rely on his veteran savvy to navigate the dangerous waters that Costa presents.

The smaller setting of the UFC APEX could also play a role in this fight. The intimate environment often leads to more intense and fast-paced bouts, which could favor Costa’s aggressive style. Schnell will need to keep his composure and avoid getting drawn into a firefight, where Costa’s power could quickly end the fight. The psychological battle will be just as important as the physical one, and how each fighter handles the pressure could determine the outcome of this matchup.

 

Prediction