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Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers: NFL Betting Analysis for Thanksgiving

As the Miami Dolphins (5-6) visit the Green Bay Packers (8-3) at Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving night, we’re in for an intriguing AFC-NFC showdown. The Packers aim to maintain their playoff trajectory while the Dolphins fight to stay relevant in the postseason conversation. 

 

Odds Table

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Miami Dolphins	+3.5 (-120)	+145	Over 47.5 (-110)
Green Bay Packers	-3.5 (EVEN)	-170	Under 47.5 (-110)

 

Team Analysis

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are coming off a three-game winning streak, with impressive victories against the Patriots, Raiders, and Rams. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has demonstrated efficiency, completing 73.3% of his passes for 1,760 yards, 13 touchdowns, and just four interceptions this season. Miami’s offense is spearheaded by the dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill (571 receiving yards) and De'Von Achane (562 rushing yards).

Head coach Mike McDaniel continues to bring creativity to Miami’s offensive schemes, often utilizing motion and play-action to exploit mismatches. However, the Dolphins' defense has struggled, allowing 236 points this season, highlighting vulnerabilities in the secondary, especially with key injuries to cornerback Kendall Fuller and linebacker Anthony Walker Jr.

Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love has embraced his role as Green Bay's starting quarterback, throwing for 2,244 yards and 18 touchdowns. Running back Josh Jacobs has been a workhorse, rushing for 944 yards and seven touchdowns, while rookie receiver Jayden Reed has become a reliable target with 669 receiving yards.

Matt LaFleur’s coaching has kept the Packers in playoff contention despite an injury-riddled roster. The absence of Jaire Alexander and Romeo Doubs will challenge Green Bay’s defense and offense, respectively, but the team’s resilience at home (4-2) and a balanced attack could mitigate these losses.

 

Recent Performance

Miami Dolphins

• 11/24/24: Defeated New England Patriots 34-15
• 11/17/24: Beat Las Vegas Raiders 34-19
• 11/11/24: Won at Los Angeles Rams 23-15
• 11/3/24: Lost at Buffalo Bills 30-27
• 10/27/24: Lost to Arizona Cardinals 28-27

Green Bay Packers

• 11/24/24: Dominated San Francisco 49ers 38-10
• 11/17/24: Narrowly beat Chicago Bears 20-19
• 11/3/24: Lost to Detroit Lions 24-14
• 10/27/24: Won at Jacksonville Jaguars 30-27
• 10/20/24: Defeated Houston Texans 24-22

 

Head-to-Head Comparison

These teams last met in the 2021 season, with Green Bay securing a 24-20 victory. Historically, the Packers have a slight edge over the Dolphins in win percentage. However, the high-powered Miami offense has the potential to exploit Green Bay’s depleted secondary, while the Packers' methodical style may find success against Miami’s inconsistent defense.

ATS Records

Miami Dolphins: 6-5 against the spread this season, covering in three of their last five games.

Green Bay Packers: 7-4 ATS, with notable covers against the 49ers and Jaguars in recent weeks.

 

Betting Stats and Trends

• The total has gone over in 4 of the Dolphins’ last 6 games.
• The total has gone over in 3 of the Packers’ last 5 home games.
• Green Bay is 4-2 ATS at home this season.
• Miami’s defense ranks 20th in points allowed, conceding an average of 21.5 points per game.
• The Packers’ offense ranks 10th in scoring, averaging 26.2 points per game.

 

Prediction