Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 17 (10/17): NFL Week 6

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 17 (10/17): NFL Week 6

  • Ajay
  • Ajay
  • Oct 14, 2021, 8:17:08 AM

Credit: photo by Williams Glahsheen-Imagn Content Services, LLC

 
Odds
Time 1:00 p.m. EST
Packers money line -189
Packers spread -4
Bears money line +180
Bears spread +5
Over / under 45

 

2021 season stats
  Packers Bears
Record 4-1 3-2
Road / home record 2-1 2-0
Points per game 24.0 16.8
Points allowed per game 24.4 20.0
Pass yards per game 247 113
Rush yards per game 101 127
Total yards per game 362 272
Total yards allowed per game 323 332
Turnover ratio +3 +3

 

Preview

It's time for the oldest rivalry in professional football.  The Packers will travel to Soldier Field to face their biggest rivals the Chicago Bears.  Green Bay leads the NFC North with Chicago trailing them by a game.  The last time they met was in the final week of the 2020 regular season.  The game was played at Soldier Field and the Packers won 35-16.  

Both teams have a negative point differential despite being over .500 and are two of only three teams in the league in such a position.  The Packers Week 1 blowout loss to the Saints might be a distant memory, but the Packers' narrow wins in the following 4 games haven't been enough to overturn the point deficit.  Chicago is now on a two-game winning streak after notching their biggest win of the season against the Raiders last week by a 20-9 scoreline.  

The rivalry will be renewed this weekend with rookie QB Justin Fields under center for the Bears going up against future hall of fame and reigning league MVP Aaron Rodgers.  

Offensive matchup

Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 1,241 yards and 10 TD with only 3 INT after 5 games.  His number one receiver Davante Adams leads the league in targets (61), yards (579), 20+ yards receptions (10) and yards per game (116).  Adams only has 2 TD on the season, however.  Their next best receiver is Randall Cobb with 157 total yards.  Aaron Jones hasn't had a huge impact on the offense so far.  He's had only one game over 100 yards rushing, but 3 have been for more than 100 scrimmage yards.  Jones has 2 rushing TD and 3 receiving TD.  He was limited in practice on Thursday due to an ankle concern and tight end Robert Tonyan is questionable for the game with a knee injury.

The Bears are ranked 32nd in passing offense, but a top ten rushing offense.  Allen Robinson hasn't produced at his regular level throughout the first five weeks and is dealing with an ankle injury that kept him out of practice on Wednesday.  He has 181 receiving yards trailing second-year wide receiver Darnell Mooney who's on 261 yards.  Mooney himself was limited in practice during the week.  Damien Williams who stepped into the primary backfield role since David Montgomery's injury was added to the Reserve COVID-19 list on Thursday meaning he will miss the Week 6 matchup.  Allen Robinson is also trending towards being out for this game.   

Defensive matchup

The Packers' defense ranks 6th in the league in yards allowed per game (323).  They seemed to have recovered from the Week 1 thrashing from the Saints.  De'Vondre Campbell is third in the league in solo tackles (31) and fifth in total tackles (48).  Vernon Scott was limited in midweek practice while Kevin King did not participate at all in Wednesday's practice.  

The Bears' Akiem Hicks was absent from practice due to a groin injury and Khalil Mack also missed practice with a foot injury.  Mack is joint-fifth in the league in sacks with 5.  Their other star linebacker Roquan Smith is 4th in the league in total tackles (50).  Chicago's defense is joint-seventh in points allowed (20) and eighth in yards allowed per game (332).  Hicks could likely miss out while Mack is expected to be ready to play. 

Prediction

The Bears are unbeaten at home.  Justin Fields is 2-1 as a starter and one of those wins came at home in Week 4, albeit to the winless Lions.  However, the rookie has 1 TD and 2 INT.  Chicago has not been able to move the ball through the air effectively and if Williams is nursing an injury it could really hinder their offensive schemes.  Rodgers put up 35 points against the Bears in Soldier Field last year after getting 45 at Lambeau.  If Mack and Hicks miss the game he could be in line for another big night, but the injuries to the Bears' offense just seem to be too much and the over seems way too high given that this is a divisional matchup.

PICK: Under (45)

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