NFL Week 17 Betting Analysis: Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders Prediction
Game Overview
The Atlanta Falcons (8-7) travel to face the Washington Commanders (10-5) in a pivotal Week 17 matchup with major playoff implications for both teams. The game is set for December 29, 2024, at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland, and will kick off at 6:20 PM EST on NBC/Peacock.
With both teams fighting for their postseason lives, expect a hard-fought game that could come down to the wire.
Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | +3.5 (-115) | o46.5 (-115) | +155 |
| Washington Commanders | -3.5 (-105) | u46.5 (-105) | -185 |
Team Analysis
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have rebounded well late in the season, winning two straight games, including a dominant 34-7 victory over the New York Giants. Rookie sensation Bijan Robinson has been the key to their success, rushing for 1,196 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. With veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins under center, Atlanta has maintained a balanced offense despite injuries to key players.
Defensively, Atlanta ranks in the middle of the pack, but their recent performances suggest improvement. They held the Raiders and Giants to single-digit scoring in consecutive weeks, setting the stage for a solid showing against Washington.
Washington Commanders
Led by quarterback Jayden Daniels, Washington boasts one of the most dynamic offenses in the league, averaging 28.8 points per game. Daniels has thrown for 3,303 yards and 22 touchdowns while adding 737 rushing yards and six scores on the ground. Terry McLaurin remains his primary target, recording 1,029 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns.
However, the Commanders’ defense has struggled in recent weeks, allowing 33 points to the Eagles and nearly giving up a late-game lead to the Saints. Injuries to key players, including Marshon Lattimore and Andrew Wylie, could further expose their vulnerabilities.
Recent Performance
Atlanta Falcons
- Week 16: Defeated New York Giants 34-7
- Week 15: Defeated Las Vegas Raiders 15-9
- Week 14: Lost to Minnesota Vikings 42-21
- Week 13: Lost to Los Angeles Chargers 17-13
- Week 12: Defeated Denver Broncos 38-6
Washington Commanders
- Week 16: Defeated Philadelphia Eagles 36-33
- Week 15: Defeated New Orleans Saints 20-19
- Week 14: Defeated Tennessee Titans 42-19
- Week 13: Lost to Dallas Cowboys 34-26
- Week 12: Lost to Philadelphia Eagles 26-18
Head-to-Head Matchup
These teams last met in 2022, with the Commanders narrowly defeating the Falcons 19-13. However, Atlanta’s improved offensive line and running game could shift the balance in their favor this time around.
Betting Trends
- Atlanta is 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven road games.
- Washington is 3-5 ATS in their last eight games as home favorites.
- The total has gone under in four of Atlanta’s last six games.
- The Commanders are 2-4 ATS in their last six games against NFC opponents.
Prediction
Atlanta’s recent surge, coupled with Washington’s inconsistent defense, sets the stage for the Falcons to keep this game close. Bijan Robinson’s ability to control the tempo and Kirk Cousins’ veteran leadership make Atlanta a strong play at +3.5. Expect the Falcons to cover the spread in this crucial matchup.
