Commanders vs Bears Prediction NFL TNF Picks 10/5

Commanders vs Bears Prediction NFL TNF Picks 10/5

© Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

 

Bears vs. Commanders - NFL Week 5 Preview

Thursday Night Football takes center stage as the winless Chicago Bears embark on a journey to the nation's capital to face the Washington Commanders in this week's marquee matchup. The Bears find themselves at 0-4 after a heartbreaking loss to the Denver Broncos last Sunday, while the Commanders fought valiantly against the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles, evening their record at 2-2. The game is set to kick off at 8:15 PM EST.

 

Bears' Rollercoaster Ride

Last Sunday, the Chicago Bears appeared poised for their first win of the season. They exploded for 21 second-quarter points and added the first touchdown of the third quarter, securing a 28-7 lead against the winless Broncos. However, their fortunes took a sharp turn as turnovers plagued them. A fumble led to a Broncos' scoop and score, and a failed fourth-down conversion late in the game provided Denver with a chance to rally. The game was ultimately sealed by a Justin Fields interception at midfield, resulting in a heartbreaking loss. This defeat extended the Bears' losing streak to 14 games, dating back to last season.

Despite the loss, Fields had an impressive performance, setting personal bests with 335 passing yards and four touchdowns while completing 28 of 35 passes, including his first 16 attempts. The Bears' offense accumulated 26 first downs and an impressive 471 yards of total offense.

Bears' Defensive Struggles

On the defensive side, the Bears yielded 311 total offensive yards and allowed 17 first downs to the Broncos. Their defensive effort included four tackles for loss, including one sack, but they failed to force any turnovers. As they head to Washington, the Bears aim to snap their 14-game losing streak and secure their first victory of the 2023 season.

The Bears currently possess the 21st-ranked total offense in the NFL. They are 13th in rushing and 24th in passing. Notably, they excel in red zone efficiency, ranking 8th in the league. However, on the defensive front, the Bears are 28th in total defense, 18th against the rush, and 29th against the pass. Their turnover differential ranks 28th, and they are 23rd in penalties per game.

 

Commanders' Valiant Effort

The Washington Commanders put up a valiant fight against the Eagles, despite ultimately falling in overtime. Quarterback Sam Howell, in his first season as a starter, orchestrated a late comeback. Trailing 31-24 with just 1:24 left, Howell guided his team down the field, culminating in a game-tying touchdown pass to Jahan Dotson as time expired. Howell completed 29 of 41 passes for 290 yards and a touchdown, showcasing resilience after a turnover-heavy game against the Bills.

The Commanders' defense allowed 415 total offensive yards and permitted 23 first downs to the Eagles. However, they were effective in limiting Philadelphia to just 4-of-12 on third-down conversions. The defense recorded six tackles for loss, including three sacks, and registered eight quarterback hits.

Commanders' Offensive Potential

As the Commanders prepare for the matchup against the Bears, they aim to regain a winning record. They currently possess the 20th-ranked total offense in the NFL. Their rushing offense ranks 17th, with Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson forming a formidable duo in the backfield. Through the air, the Commanders are ranked 20th, with Howell adapting to his first season as a full-time starter. Defensively, the Commanders are 21st in total defense, 21st against the run, and 20th against the pass. Their red zone efficiency ranks 11th in the league.

While the Commanders have improved in turnovers recently, they are 24th in the league in turnover efficiency. Nevertheless, they boast a solid 11th ranking in penalties per game this season.

 

Prediction

When it comes to betting, the over of 44.5 points appears to be the most favorable choice for this matchup. Here's why:

  • Offensive Potential: Despite both teams' defensive struggles, they have shown the ability to score points, which sets the stage for a high-scoring contest.
  • Resilient Quarterbacks: Both teams have quarterbacks who have demonstrated resilience and the ability to lead their offenses to scoring drives.
  • Historical Shootouts: Previous matchups between these teams have often seen high-scoring affairs, making the over a solid bet. All four of the Bears' games this season have gone over the total. This season, games in Chicago have an overall point average of 53.1. Even though they have been giving up more points than they can score, the Bears can still score. Washington has gone over in two of their last four games and just defeated Philadelphia 34-31. 

With these factors in mind, expect a Thursday Night Football showdown filled with offensive fireworks, making the over of 44.5 points an appealing wager.

 

Pick: Over (44.5 Points)

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