Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 17 (10/17): NFL Week 6

Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 17 (10/17): NFL Week 6

  • Ajay
  • Ajay
  • Oct 15, 2021, 2:58:33 AM

Credit: photo by Junfu Han-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 1:00 p.m. EST
Bengals money line -172
Bengals spread -3.5
Lions money line +168
Lions spread +3.5
Over / under 48

 

2021 season stats
  Bengals Lions
Record 3-2 0-5
Road / home record 1-1 0-2
Points per game 22.8 19.6
Points allowed per game 20.0 27.6
Pass yards per game 235 237
Rush yards per game 99 103
Total yards per game 353 364
Total yards allowed per game 352 382
Turnover ratio -2 -1

 

Preview

Two heartbreaking losses to field goals in Week 5 for two teams trending in different directions.  The Bengals travel to Ford Field to play the Detroit Lions in Week 6.  Cincinnati and Joe Burrow went toe-to-toe with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week. They eventually lost out in overtime thanks to a FG from Mason Crosby but did have a chance to go up late in the 4th quarter.  Evan McPherson put his FG attempt wide and the Crosby missed the final attempt of the game before the game went to OT.  The loss still leaves the Bengals 3-2; joint second in the AFC North.  

The Lions have looked noticeably better as a unit both offensively and defensively.  They rank 23rd in the league in passing yards per game - one spot ahead of the Bengals - and 20th in rushing yards per game.  Despite all that, they're still winless on the season.  They lost to the Vikings in Week 5 after Greg Joseph converted a FG attempt in the dying seconds.  It was the Lions' second 19-17 loss in three weeks.  

The last time these teams met was back on Christmas Eve 2017. the Bengals won that matchup 26-17. 

Offensive matchup

Joe Burrow had a good outing in Week 5.  He was 26 of 38 for 281 yards and two passing TDs but also had two picks for a passer rating of 85.5.  It was his second-highest yardage per game in 2021.  Ja'Marr Chase continues to be his number one receiving outlet.  The rookie receiver went for 159 yards from six receptions against Green Bay.  That takes his season total to 456 ranking him seventh in the league among receivers.  Joe Mixon wasn't very effective last week in the ground game or passing game but did manage a rushing TD.  He still ranks fifth in the league in rushing yards (386).  Instead, it was Samaje Perine who had a bigger impact in both areas notching 59 rushing yards from 11 carries and 24 yards from four catches and a receiving TD.   Mixon did not practice on Thursday due to an ankle injury.  Perine was placed on the COVID-list and may not recover in time to face Cincinnati on Sunday. 

Jared Goff was kept quiet by the Vikings' defense last week.  He only threw for 203 yards against them which were his second-lowest total in his five games this season.  Goff is 15th in the league in passing yards, which is actually higher than Joe Burrow.  De'Andre Swift has been more effective in the passing game than the running for the Lions.  He has 252 yards through the air and only 190 on the ground.  Jamaal Williams is the team's leading rusher with 244 yards.  Tight end T.J. Hockenson is the next best receiving outlet in the offense with 237 yards and 2 TDs on the season.  All three players are carrying injury designations going into Week 6.  Williams did not participate and Swift and Hockenson were both limited in practice on Thursday.

Defensive matchup

Cincinnati's defense has been solid through the first 5 games.  They rank 11th in the league in points allowed giving up 1,758 total yards and are joint seventh giving up only 20 points per game.  Linebacker Logan Wilson leads the team and ranks 9th in total tackles (47).  Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell have both contributed with 32 and 31 tackles, respectively.  Cincy ranks 16th in passing defense and 10th in rush defense.

The Lions are 17th in pass defense and 23rd in rush defense.  In the last 3 weeks though, they've been able to keep two opponents to less than 20 points.  Alex Anzalone and Will Harris lead the team with 30 and 20 total tackles, respectively.  Linebacker Charles Harris has 4 sacks on the season; joint 14th in the league.  Detroit's defense is also the 8th best scoring defense in the league.  

Prediction

Goff and Burrow have had a hot start to the season averaging over 230 yards per game.  For this matchup, they both will have to deal with injuries to key players in their offense.  They're not high-scoring teams but they both are capable of putting up at least 3 TDs in this game and keeping it a tight affair.  The over / under at 45 is achievable. 

PICK: Over (45)

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