Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 10 (10/10): NFL Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 10 (10/10): NFL Week 5

Credit: photo by Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Time 8:20 p.m. EST
Bills money line +138
Bills spread +3
Chiefs money line -141
Chiefs spread -2.5
Over / under 57


2021 season stats
  Bills Chiefs
Record 3-1 2-2
Road / home record 1-0 1-1
Points per game 33.5 33.5
Points allowed per game 11.0 31.3
Pass yards per game 259 295
Rush yards per game 145 130
Total yards per game 411 432
Total yards allowed per game 217 438
Turnover ratio +7 -3



The most anticipated game of the season takes place on Sunday night; a rematch of the 2020 AFC Championship game.  The Bills will be at Arrowhead Stadium to face the back-to-back AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs.  Since losing their opening game to the Steelers, the Bills have won 3 straight games with 2 shutouts in the process.  They sit comfortably on top of the AFC East and have the best defense in the league conceding only 11 points per game.  They and Kansas City are joint 2nd in points scored with 33.5 per game.  The Chiefs while having one of the best offenses in the league also have the 2nd worst defense in the league. They rank 31st in total yards allowed, rushing yards allowed and points allowed and are 27th in passing yards allowed.  They're also in unfamiliar territory sitting at the foot of the AFC West with a 2-2 record.  Both the Bills and the Chiefs will see this as a must-win game.

Offensive matchup

Buffalo has never really leaned on their running game in the Josh Allen era, but this season Devin Singletary has had a good start so far ranking 12th among all rushers with 259 yards.  His fellow rusher Zack Moss leads the team in TDs however having 3 with 147 yards on the ground himself.  The addition of Emmanuel Sanders has helped improve their passing game.  Sanders has 268 yards from 16 catches and 2 TDs, 1 more than team's leading receiver Stefon Diggs.  Cole Beasley and tight end Dawson Knox have both also been integral in the Bills' passing attack.  Knox has a team-high 4 TDs. 

The Chiefs haven't had trouble on offense.  Last week, they put up 42 points on the Eagles.  In their first two games, they struggled to establish a ground game, but since then, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has gone past 100 rushing yards in weeks 3 and 4 and has shot up to 8th in the rushing yards this season.  Patrick Mahomes' 72.3 completion % is 2nd only to Kyler Murray and his 1,218 yards are 5th among QBs.  Tyreek Hill already has 452 yards at an average of 113.3 yards per game and Travis Kelce is the leading tight end in the league with 312 yards.  Hill was listed with a rib injury on Friday, but that could be precautionary since he was a full participant in practice.  

Defensive matchup

The Bills' defense has been extremely stingy this season.  They shut out the Dolphins in Miami in week 2 and then Houston last week at home. They'll face a much tougher task this week.  Matt Milano is nursing a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable for Sunday.  A.J. Epenesa is also listed as questionable and their star corner Tre'Davious White was a limited participant in Friday's practice with a shoulder injury.  Micah Hyde leads the team with 2 picks and a further 19 tackles while Tremaine Edmunds leads the team with 21 total tackles.

Kansas City's defense has been unable to make stops all season.  Their misery will be compounded by the fact that Chris Jones, Frank Clark and Chavarius Ward are all dealing with injuries and are questionable for the game.  Daniel Sorensen is the team's leading tackler with 30 total tackles and Tyrann Mathieu leads the team INTs with 2 on the season.  This is the best offense that the Chiefs defense is coming across for 2021 so far.


The Chiefs haven't been able to grind out wins as they have in the past.  They've been beaten at home and on the road in one-possession games.  While they're very much capable of putting up points, they're not good enough to stop other teams from doing it and they could struggle against the Bills' dynamic offense led by Josh Allen. One thing's for sure is that they will make it a tight game to the end.

PICK: Bills spread (+3)

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