Kingpin analysis
AFC Wild Card Playoffs: Ravens vs Steelers Prediction 1/11

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Ravens vs. Steelers: AFC Wild Card Playoff Betting Preview
Game Overview
The Baltimore Ravens (12-5) will host the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) in an AFC Wild Card showdown on Saturday, January 11, 2025, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:00 PM ET, with the game broadcast on Prime Video. The Ravens enter the postseason as AFC North champions and heavy favorites, while the Steelers aim to defy the odds as a Wild Card underdog.
Betting Odds
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ravens Moneyline | -500 |
| Steelers Moneyline | +360 |
| Spread: Ravens -9.5 | -115 |
| Total Over 43.5 | -110 |
| Total Under 43.5 | -110 |
Team Analysis
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are led by MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, who has been electric this season, throwing for 4,172 yards, 41 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. Derrick Henry has also been a dominant force on the ground, rushing for 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns. Baltimore’s offense averages an impressive 30.5 points per game, ranking them among the NFL's elite.
Defensively, the Ravens are solid, allowing just 21.2 points per game, anchored by a stout front seven that excels in stopping the run. In their Week 16 matchup against the Steelers, Baltimore held Pittsburgh to 17 points while putting up 34 of their own.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers, on the other hand, rely on a balanced attack, with Najee Harris leading the ground game (1,043 rushing yards) and Russell Wilson managing the offense (2,482 passing yards, 16 touchdowns). However, Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled to put up points consistently, ranking 20th in the league at just 22.3 points per game.
Pittsburgh's defense remains their strength, led by T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward. They allow 20.4 points per game, but their unit has been inconsistent, especially against elite offenses like Baltimore's.
Recent Performance
Ravens Last 5
- 1/4/25: Defeated Browns 35-10
- 12/25/24: Defeated Texans 31-2
- 12/21/24: Defeated Steelers 34-17
- 12/15/24: Defeated Giants 35-14
- 12/1/24: Lost to Eagles 24-19
Steelers Last 5
- 1/4/25: Lost to Bengals 19-17
- 12/25/24: Lost to Chiefs 29-10
- 12/21/24: Lost to Ravens 34-17
- 12/15/24: Lost to Eagles 27-13
- 12/8/24: Defeated Browns 27-14
Key Matchups
Lamar Jackson vs. Steelers Defense: Jackson torched Pittsburgh in their Week 16 matchup with four total touchdowns. The Steelers must find a way to contain him to have any chance of pulling off the upset.
Ravens Front Seven vs. Najee Harris: Baltimore’s defense will focus on shutting down Harris, forcing Russell Wilson to win the game through the air against a strong secondary.
Betting Trends
- The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone under in 3 of Baltimore’s last 5 games.
- The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone under in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games.
Prediction
Given the Ravens' dominant offense, strong defense, and home-field advantage, they are the clear pick to win and cover the spread. Pittsburgh’s struggles on both sides of the ball, combined with Baltimore’s recent form, make this a tough matchup for the Steelers. Expect Baltimore to control the game and advance to the next round.
Pick: Ravens -9.5 (-115)
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