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NCAA Football Betting Preview: Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Michigan State Spartans Prediction

The 2024 college football season kicks off with an intriguing matchup between the Florida Atlantic Owls and the Michigan State Spartans on Friday, August 30, 2024. The game will be held at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan, with a 4:00 PM EST kickoff. Michigan State, under new head coach Jonathan Smith, enters this contest as a solid favorite, with the spread set at -13.5 points. The Spartans are looking to start the season strong, while Florida Atlantic aims to pull off an upset. In this article, we’ll explore why Michigan State is expected to cover the -13.5 spread.

 

Game Information

• Date: August 30, 2024
• Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
• Time: 4:00 PM EST
• TV Coverage: BTN
• Line: Michigan State -13.5

Florida Atlantic Owls: Rebuilding with Challenges

The Florida Atlantic Owls enter the 2024 season after a disappointing 4-8 record in 2023, including a 2-6 mark in American Athletic Conference (AAC) play. Head Coach Tom Herman, in his second year at FAU, is tasked with rebuilding the program, but the team faces significant challenges, especially in matchups against Power Five opponents like Michigan State. While the Owls have some talented players, their overall depth and experience are lacking, making this a tough matchup.

Offensively, the Owls are led by quarterback Casey Thompson, who transferred from Nebraska after a solid season in which he threw for 2,407 yards and 17 touchdowns. Thompson brings experience and leadership to the FAU offense, but he will face a much tougher defense in Michigan State than he typically sees in the AAC. The running game is anchored by tailback Larry McCammon III, who rushed for 822 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2023. McCammon is a capable runner with good vision and burst, but the offensive line, which struggled at times last season, will need to step up against a physical Michigan State front seven.

The receiving corps features wide receiver LaJohntay Wester, who caught 67 passes for 945 yards and 8 touchdowns last season. Wester is a dynamic playmaker with the ability to stretch the field, but he will need to find ways to get open against a talented Michigan State secondary. Tight end Jahmal Edrine provides another option, particularly in short-yardage situations and in the red zone. The offensive line, which allowed 28 sacks last season, will be tested by Michigan State’s aggressive pass rush.

Defensively, FAU is led by linebacker Eddie Williams, who recorded 97 tackles and 3 sacks last season. Williams is a hard-hitting, versatile player who can make plays all over the field, but he will need support from his teammates to contain Michigan State’s balanced offensive attack. The Owls’ defense allowed 27.9 points per game in 2023, ranking near the middle of the AAC. The secondary, led by cornerback Dwight Toombs II, is a capable unit but will be challenged by Michigan State’s physical wide receivers. If FAU can generate pressure on the quarterback and limit big plays, they may be able to keep the game closer than expected, though covering the spread remains a significant challenge.

Michigan State Spartans: New Era with High Hopes

The Michigan State Spartans are coming off a disappointing 5-7 season in 2023, which led to the hiring of Jonathan Smith as the new head coach. Smith, who had success at Oregon State, is expected to bring a new level of energy and discipline to the program. Michigan State enters this matchup as solid favorites, and they will be looking to cover the spread with a strong performance in front of their home crowd.

Michigan State’s offense is led by quarterback Katin Houser, who steps into the starting role after serving as a backup last season. Houser, a highly touted recruit, is a strong-armed passer with the ability to make plays both inside and outside the pocket, making him a key player in Smith’s offense. The running game is powered by Jalen Berger, who rushed for 987 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023. Berger is a physical runner with the ability to break tackles and gain tough yards, making him a focal point of Michigan State’s ground attack.

The Spartans’ receiving corps features wide receiver Tre Mosley, who caught 52 passes for 745 yards and 6 touchdowns last season. Mosley is a reliable target with good hands and the ability to make plays in the open field, particularly in one-on-one matchups. Tight end Maliq Carr provides another big target for Houser, especially in the red zone. The offensive line, anchored by All-Big Ten center Nick Samac, is a strong unit that excels in both pass protection and run blocking.

Defensively, Michigan State has made improvements under Smith’s leadership, with a focus on physical play and disciplined execution. The Spartans allowed 25.1 points per game in 2023, ranking in the middle of the Big Ten. The defensive line, led by defensive end Simeon Barrow, is capable of generating pressure without the need for heavy blitzing, allowing the secondary to play tighter coverage. Linebacker Cal Haladay, who led the team with 113 tackles last season, is a key playmaker who excels in both run defense and pass coverage. The secondary, anchored by safety Jaden Mangham, is a talented group that is adept at forcing turnovers and limiting big plays.

Advanced Metrics and Statistical Breakdown

Florida Atlantic Owls

• Offensive Efficiency: Florida Atlantic ranked 78th among FBS teams in Offensive Efficiency last season, according to SP+. The Owls averaged 5.4 yards per play and struggled in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 56% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
• Defensive Efficiency: The Owls ranked 85th in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 388.7 yards per game. Their defense struggled against both the run and the pass, and their inability to get off the field on third downs was a major issue.
• Turnover Margin: Florida Atlantic finished the 2023 season with a -2 turnover margin, ranking 83rd among FBS teams. The Owls struggled with ball security and creating takeaways, which contributed to their losses.

Michigan State Spartans

• Offensive Efficiency: Michigan State ranked 64th in the FBS in Offensive Efficiency last season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The Spartans averaged 5.8 yards per play and were moderately effective in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 63% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
• Defensive Efficiency: Michigan State ranked 45th in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 353.2 yards per game. The Spartans’ defense was particularly strong against the run, holding opponents to just 120.5 rushing yards per game.
• Turnover Margin: Michigan State finished the 2023 season with a +3 turnover margin, ranking 40th in the FBS. The Spartans’ ability to protect the football and create takeaways was a key factor in their success.

Coaching Analysis

Tom Herman (Florida Atlantic)

Tom Herman is in his second season as the head coach of the Florida Atlantic Owls, and he faces the challenge of rebuilding a program that has struggled in recent years. Herman, who previously coached at Texas and Houston, emphasizes a balanced offensive attack and a disciplined defense. However, FAU has struggled to execute consistently, particularly against stronger opponents. In this matchup, Herman will need his team to play with discipline and avoid turnovers if they hope to keep the game close against Michigan State. The Owls will need to capitalize on their opportunities and play a near-perfect game to compete against the Spartans.

Jonathan Smith (Michigan State)

Jonathan Smith is entering his first season as the head coach of the Michigan State Spartans, and he brings a new level of energy and discipline to the program. Smith, who had success at Oregon State, is known for his offensive acumen and ability to develop quarterbacks. Under Smith’s leadership, Michigan State is expected to become a more balanced and disciplined team, with a focus on physical play and executing at a high level.

Offensively, Smith’s teams are balanced and efficient, with a strong running game complemented by an effective passing attack. Defensively, Smith emphasizes stopping the run and creating pressure on the quarterback, with a focus on limiting big plays and forcing turnovers. In this matchup, Smith will look to use his team’s physicality, depth, and home-field advantage to dominate Florida Atlantic and cover the spread.

Recent Performance

Florida Atlantic Owls

Florida Atlantic finished the 2023 season with a 4-8 record, including a 2-6 mark in AAC play. The Owls struggled on both sides of the ball, particularly on offense, where they averaged just 21.7 points per game. FAU’s season was highlighted by a 38-16 victory over Charlotte, in which Casey Thompson threw for 287 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Owls also recorded a 24-21 win over UTEP, showcasing their ability to execute in critical situations and pull off close victories.

In their final game of the 2023 season, FAU lost to Rice 24-21. The game was marked by missed opportunities and defensive lapses, as the Owls struggled to contain Rice’s balanced offensive attack. Despite the loss, FAU has shown they can compete against similar-level opponents, and they will look to carry that momentum into the 2024 season, though the challenge against Michigan State is significantly greater.

Michigan State Spartans

Michigan State ended the 2023 season with a 5-7 record, including a 3-6 mark in Big Ten play. The Spartans’ season was highlighted by a 24-21 victory over Indiana, in which their defense held strong in the final moments to secure the win. Michigan State also recorded a 20-17 win over Nebraska, showcasing their ability to execute in critical situations and pull off close victories. However, the Spartans also suffered some tough losses, including a 42-0 defeat to Penn State and a 38-3 loss to Ohio State.

In their final game of the 2023 season, Michigan State lost to Penn State 42-0. The game was marked by offensive struggles and defensive breakdowns, as the Spartans were unable to generate any momentum against a tough Penn State defense. Katin Houser, who played sparingly in 2023, is expected to take over as the full-time starter in 2024, bringing a new dynamic to Michigan State’s offense. The Spartans’ balanced attack and aggressive defense will be key factors in their bid to cover the spread against Florida Atlantic.

Head-to-Head Comparison

This game marks the first meeting between Florida Atlantic and Michigan State, adding an element of unpredictability to the matchup. Michigan State, as a Big Ten program with significant advantages in size, speed, and depth, enters the game as a solid favorite against an AAC opponent in Florida Atlantic. The key to this game will likely be Michigan State’s ability to exploit their advantages in physicality and playmaking ability, particularly on offense. If the Spartans can score quickly and often, they should be able to build a comfortable lead and cover the spread.

Florida Atlantic’s best chance to keep the game close will be to control the clock with their running game and take advantage of any mistakes by Michigan State. The Owls will need to play with discipline and avoid turnovers if they hope to stay within the spread. While the talent gap between the two teams is significant, FAU has shown the ability to compete against stronger opponents, and their offensive playmakers could help contribute to a closer game.

Betting Stats and Trends

• Florida Atlantic Owls: The Owls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against Power Five opponents. They have struggled to cover large spreads, particularly when facing high-powered offenses.
• Michigan State Spartans: The Spartans are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites. They have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against non-conference opponents.
• Head-to-Head: This is the first meeting between Florida Atlantic and Michigan State, adding an element of unpredictability to the matchup.

Weather and Venue Considerations

Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan, provides a strong home-field advantage for the Michigan State Spartans. The weather forecast for August 30th calls for temperatures in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies, typical for late summer in the Midwest. These conditions are not expected to significantly impact the game, but the energy of a season-opening crowd could provide a boost for Michigan State.

The home-field advantage of Spartan Stadium, coupled with the experienced leadership of Jonathan Smith, will be a factor in favor of Michigan State. The Spartans have a strong record in season openers, and they will be looking to continue that trend against Florida Atlantic. The venue’s electric atmosphere and passionate fan base make it a challenging place for visiting teams, particularly those from smaller programs like FAU.

Prediction