© Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

 

Spread Betting Preview: Lindenwood Lions vs. Kansas Jayhawks Prediction NCAA Football

The 2024 college football season features an intriguing matchup between the Lindenwood Lions and the Kansas Jayhawks on Thursday, August 29, 2024. The game will be held at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas, with a 5:00 PM EST kickoff. Kansas enters this game as a massive favorite, with the spread set at -43.5 points. The Jayhawks are aiming to kick off their season with a dominant performance against an FCS opponent in Lindenwood. 

 

Game Information

• Date: August 29, 2024
• Location: Children’s Mercy Park, Kansas City, KS
• Time: 5:00 PM EST
• TV Coverage: ESPN+
• Line: Kansas -43.5

Lindenwood Lions: Stepping Up to a New Challenge

The Lindenwood Lions enter the 2024 season coming off a 7-4 record in their second year of Division I competition, now part of the Ohio Valley Conference (OVC). Head Coach Jed Stugart has done an admirable job transitioning Lindenwood from Division II to Division I, but facing an FBS opponent like Kansas is a new and daunting challenge. The Lions are looking to compete and gain experience, though covering the large spread against a Big 12 opponent will be a significant test.

Offensively, the Lions are led by quarterback Cade Brister, who threw for 3,122 yards and 27 touchdowns last season. Brister is a seasoned veteran who can make plays with both his arm and his legs, but he will face a Kansas defense that is faster and more physical than any defense he encountered in the OVC. The running game is anchored by Andrew Martin, who rushed for 811 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2023. Martin is a hard-nosed runner who can gain yards after contact, but he will need his offensive line to perform well against Kansas’s formidable defensive front.

The receiving corps features standout wide receiver Payton Rose, who caught 74 passes for 1,011 yards and 12 touchdowns last season. Rose is a reliable target with good speed and route-running ability, but he will need to find ways to get open against a Kansas secondary that is more athletic and experienced. Tight end Alex Faddoul provides another solid option, particularly in short-yardage situations and in the red zone. The offensive line, which struggled at times against stronger OVC defenses, will need to protect Brister and open running lanes against a Kansas defense known for generating pressure.

Defensively, Lindenwood is anchored by linebacker Darrius Washington, who led the team with 98 tackles and 5 sacks last season. Washington is a versatile player who can make plays all over the field, but he will need help from his teammates to slow down Kansas’s high-powered offense. The Lions’ defense allowed 28.7 points per game in 2023, ranking in the middle of the OVC. The secondary, led by cornerback Kai Ross, will be tested by Kansas’s passing game. If Lindenwood can generate pressure on the quarterback and limit big plays, they may be able to keep the game closer than expected, though covering the spread remains a difficult task.

Kansas Jayhawks: Heavy Favorites Looking to Impress

The Kansas Jayhawks are coming off a 9-4 season in 2023, including a 6-3 record in Big 12 play, marking their best season in over a decade. Head Coach Lance Leipold, now in his fourth season with the Jayhawks, has engineered a remarkable turnaround for the program, bringing Kansas back to respectability in the Big 12. Kansas enters this matchup as heavy favorites, and they will be looking to cover the large spread with a dominant performance in front of their home fans.

Kansas’s offense is led by quarterback Jalon Daniels, who threw for 3,418 yards and 29 touchdowns while also rushing for 724 yards and 11 scores last season. Daniels is one of the most dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks in the country, capable of making plays with both his arm and his legs, making him the centerpiece of Kansas’s offense. The running game is powered by Devin Neal, who rushed for 1,223 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2023. Neal is a physical runner with great vision and the ability to break tackles, making him a difficult back for any defense to contain.

The Jayhawks’ receiving corps features wide receiver Lawrence Arnold, who caught 67 passes for 976 yards and 8 touchdowns last season. Arnold’s size and speed make him a matchup problem for opposing defenses, particularly in one-on-one situations. Tight end Mason Fairchild is another key weapon for Daniels, providing a big target over the middle of the field and in the red zone. The offensive line, anchored by All-Big 12 tackle Earl Bostick Jr., is a strong unit that excels in both pass protection and run blocking.

Defensively, Kansas has improved significantly under Leipold’s leadership, though they still have room for growth. The Jayhawks allowed 26.2 points per game in 2023, ranking in the middle of the Big 12. The defensive line, led by defensive end Jereme Robinson, is capable of generating pressure without the need for heavy blitzing, allowing the secondary to play tighter coverage. Linebacker Rich Miller, who led the team with 112 tackles last season, is a key playmaker who excels in both run defense and pass coverage. The secondary, anchored by safety Kenny Logan Jr., is a talented unit that is adept at forcing turnovers and limiting big plays.

Advanced Metrics and Statistical Breakdown

Lindenwood Lions

• Offensive Efficiency: Lindenwood ranked 65th among FCS teams in Offensive Efficiency last season, according to SP+. The Lions averaged 5.9 yards per play and were effective in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 62% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
• Defensive Efficiency: The Lions ranked 73rd in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 386.7 yards per game. Their ability to generate pressure and force turnovers was decent, but they struggled against the pass, giving up 245.3 passing yards per game.
• Turnover Margin: Lindenwood finished the 2023 season with a +3 turnover margin, ranking 48th among FCS teams. The Lions were able to protect the football and create takeaways, which helped them stay competitive in close games.

Kansas Jayhawks

• Offensive Efficiency: Kansas ranked 25th in the FBS in Offensive Efficiency last season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The Jayhawks averaged 6.4 yards per play and excelled in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 69% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
• Defensive Efficiency: Kansas ranked 48th in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 374.8 yards per game. The Jayhawks’ defense was particularly strong against the run, holding opponents to just 131.2 rushing yards per game.
• Red Zone Performance: Kansas scored touchdowns on 67% of their red zone trips, while their defense allowed touchdowns on 55% of opponents' red zone opportunities, ranking in the top half of the Big 12.

Coaching Analysis

Jed Stugart (Lindenwood)

Jed Stugart is in his third season as the head coach of the Lindenwood Lions, guiding the program through its transition from Division II to Division I. Stugart, who has a strong track record of success at the Division II level, has focused on building a balanced team that can compete in the OVC. His offensive philosophy emphasizes running the football and controlling the clock, while his defense is built around aggressive play and creating turnovers.

Defensively, Stugart has focused on improving tackling and creating pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but the Lions have struggled to consistently execute against stronger opponents. In this matchup, Stugart will need his team to play with discipline and avoid turnovers if they hope to stay within the spread against Kansas. The Lions will need to capitalize on their opportunities and play a near-perfect game to compete against the Jayhawks.

Lance Leipold (Kansas)

Lance Leipold is entering his fourth season as the head coach of the Kansas Jayhawks. Leipold, known for his impressive record at Division III Wisconsin-Whitewater and later at Buffalo, has transformed Kansas into a competitive Big 12 program. Under Leipold’s leadership, the Jayhawks have developed a high-scoring, balanced offense that can exploit mismatches in the defense.

Leipold’s offensive philosophy is based on a power-running game complemented by a dynamic passing attack led by Jalon Daniels. His teams are known for their ability to control the line of scrimmage and wear down opponents. Defensively, Leipold emphasizes aggression and creating turnovers, with a focus on stopping the run and forcing teams into predictable passing situations. In this matchup, Leipold will look to use his team’s size, speed, and physicality to dominate Lindenwood and cover the large spread.

Recent Performance

Lindenwood Lions

Lindenwood finished the 2023 season with a 7-4 record, including a 4-2 mark in OVC play. The Lions showed improvement on both sides of the ball, particularly in their offensive play. Lindenwood’s season was highlighted by a 34-31 victory over Southeast Missouri State, in which Cade Brister threw for 322 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Lions also recorded a 28-24 win over Tennessee State, showcasing their ability to execute in critical situations and pull off close victories.

In their final game of the 2023 season, Lindenwood lost to UT Martin 38-20. The game was marked by defensive lapses and missed opportunities, as the Lions struggled to contain UT Martin’s passing attack. Despite the loss, Lindenwood has shown they can compete against similar-level opponents, and they will look to carry that momentum into the 2024 season.

Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas ended the 2023 season with a 9-4 record, including a 6-3 mark in Big 12 play. The Jayhawks’ season was highlighted by a 45-27 victory over Texas Tech, in which their offense exploded for 561 total yards. Kansas also recorded a 38-31 win over Kansas State, showcasing their ability to execute in critical situations and pull off close victories. However, the Jayhawks also suffered some tough losses, including a 42-21 defeat to Oklahoma and a 41-34 loss to Texas.

In their final game of the 2023 season, Kansas lost to Oregon 31-28 in the Alamo Bowl. The game was marked by defensive lapses and missed opportunities, as the Jayhawks struggled to contain Oregon’s passing attack. Jalon Daniels threw for 301 yards and 3 touchdowns, but Kansas was unable to overcome their defensive struggles. Despite the loss, the Jayhawks’ offense remains one of the most explosive in the Big 12, and they will look to start the 2024 season with a statement win.

Head-to-Head Comparison

This game marks the first-ever meeting between Lindenwood and Kansas, adding an element of unpredictability to the matchup. Kansas, as an FBS program, enters the game as a heavy favorite against an FCS opponent in Lindenwood. The key to this game will likely be Kansas’s ability to exploit their advantages in speed, size, and depth, particularly on offense. If the Jayhawks can score quickly and often, they should be able to build a comfortable lead and cover the large spread.

Lindenwood’s best chance to keep the game close will be to control the clock with their running game and take advantage of any mistakes by Kansas. The Lions will need to play with discipline and avoid turnovers if they hope to stay within the spread. While the talent gap between the two teams is significant, Lindenwood has shown the ability to compete against stronger opponents, and their defensive playmakers could help keep the game closer than expected.

Betting Stats and Trends

• Lindenwood Lions: The Lions are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against FBS opponents. They have struggled to cover large spreads, particularly when facing high-powered offenses.
• Kansas Jayhawks: The Jayhawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites. They have covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against non-conference opponents.
• Head-to-Head: This is the first meeting between Lindenwood and Kansas, adding an element of unpredictability to the matchup.

Weather and Venue Considerations

Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas, provides a unique venue for the Kansas Jayhawks. The weather forecast for August 29th calls for temperatures in the high 80s with partly cloudy skies, typical for late summer in the Midwest. These conditions are not expected to significantly impact the game, but the energy of a season-opening crowd could provide a boost for Kansas.

The home-field advantage of Children’s Mercy Park, coupled with the experienced leadership of Lance Leipold, will be a factor in favor of Kansas. The Jayhawks have a strong record in season openers under Leipold, and they will be looking to continue that trend against Lindenwood. The venue’s electric atmosphere and passionate fan base make it a challenging place for visiting teams, particularly those from smaller programs like Lindenwood.

Prediction