Saint Mary's vs VCU Prediction March Madness, 03/17

Photo Credit: © James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Odds

2022-2023 season stats

Preview

The Men's Basketball Championship - West Region - 1st Round game between Saint Mary's and VCU is set to take place on March 17th, 2023, at MVP Arena in Albany, New York. This matchup features two teams with strong records and talented players who will undoubtedly put on an exciting show. VCU comes into the game as the 12th seed, while Saint Mary's is the 5th seed. Both teams have been preparing for this game, and it will be interesting to see how they match up. In this article, we will provide an extended preview of both teams, analyze their stats, and make a final prediction.

VCU Rams

VCU, also known as the Rams, has had a successful season so far, with a record of 27-7. They finished first in the Atlantic 10 Conference, with a conference record of 15-3. VCU's offense is their strength, with an average of 77.9 points per game, ranking them 39th in the country. Their defense is also noteworthy, as they allow only 65.8 points per game, ranking them 63rd in the nation.

One of VCU's key players is guard Ace Baldwin Jr., who leads the team in points per game with 12.7. He also leads the team in assists per game with 5.9. Baldwin Jr. is an excellent ball-handler and playmaker, and his ability to create scoring opportunities for his teammates will be essential in this game. Another critical player for VCU is forward Jamir DeLoach, who leads the team in rebounds per game with 7.0. DeLoach is a strong rebounder and a tenacious defender, and his presence in the paint will make it challenging for Saint Mary's to score inside.

VCU's recent form has been excellent, as they have won their last five games. In those games, they have averaged 76.4 points per game, while allowing only 61.4 points per game. They have also covered the spread in three of their last five games, indicating that they are playing well and exceeding expectations. VCU's experience in the NCAA tournament is also worth noting, as they have reached the Final Four once and the Sweet Sixteen twice in the last decade.

Saint Mary's Gaels

Saint Mary's, also known as the Gaels, has also had a successful season, with a record of 26-7. They finished second in the West Coast Conference, with a conference record of 14-2. Saint Mary's has a balanced team, with an average of 70.2 points per game, ranking them 179th in the nation. Their defense is their strength, as they allow only 62.6 points per game, ranking them 19th in the country.

One of Saint Mary's key players is guard Logan Johnson, who leads the team in points per game with 14.7. Johnson is an excellent scorer and a reliable shooter, shooting 46% from the field and 68% from the free-throw line. Another critical player for Saint Mary's is center Matthias Saxen, who leads the team in rebounds per game with 7.8. Saxen is a strong rebounder and an imposing presence in the paint, making it challenging for opposing teams to score inside.

Saint Mary's recent form has been mixed, as they have won three of their last five games. In those games, they have averaged 66.8 points per game, while allowing 71.4 points per game. Saint Mary's has covered the spread in three of their last five games, indicating that they have been playing well against the spread. One of the challenges for Saint Mary's in this game will be their lack of experience in the NCAA tournament. While they have made it to the tournament in the past, they have not advanced past the round of 32 since 2010.

BETTING TRENDS

VCU are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 10 of VCU's last 14 games.

VCU are 9-0 SU in their last 9 games.

VCU are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played in March.

Saint Mary's-California are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Saint Mary's-California's last 9 games.

Saint Mary's-California are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games.

Saint Mary's-California are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against an opponent in the Atlantic 10 conference.

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Saint Mary's-California's last 7 games played in March.

Prediction

Despite both teams having successful seasons, VCU has a few advantages that make them the favorites to cover the +4 points spread in this game. One of the most significant advantages for VCU is their experience in the NCAA tournament. They have made it to the Final Four once and the Sweet Sixteen twice in the last decade, while Saint Mary's has not advanced past the round of 32 since 2010. This experience will give VCU a mental edge in the game and could make the difference in a close matchup.

Another advantage for VCU is their offense, which is ranked 39th in the country, averaging 77.9 points per game. While Saint Mary's has a strong defense, allowing only 62.6 points per game, they have not faced an offense as potent as VCU's this season. VCU's ability to score from multiple positions and create opportunities for their teammates will make it challenging for Saint Mary's to shut them down.

Finally, VCU's recent form has been excellent, as they have won their last five games and have covered the spread in three of those games. Saint Mary's, on the other hand, has won three of their last five games but has only covered the spread in three of their last ten games. VCU's momentum and recent success against the spread make them the more favorable pick in this game.

In conclusion, while both teams have had successful seasons, VCU's experience in the NCAA tournament, potent offense, and recent form make them the favorites to cover the +4 points spread in this game. While Saint Mary's has a strong defense and talented players, VCU's advantages in key areas of the game make them the more favorable pick. 

PICK: VCU +4 (-110)

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