NCAAB Picks Today: Purdue vs Ohio State, March 11, 2023

NCAAB Picks Today: Purdue vs Ohio State, March 11, 2023

 

Odds

Time 1:00 p.m. EST
Buckeyes money line +270
Buckeyes spread +7 (-110)
Boilermakers money line -345
Boilermakers spread -7 (-110)
Over / under 134

 

2022-2023 season stats

  Ohio State Buckeyes Purdue Boilermakers
Record 16-18 27-5
Conference record 5-15 15-5
Streak W4 W4
Points per game 72.00 73.00
Points allowed per game 69.00 62.00
Rebounds per game 39.00 33.00
Rebounds allowed per game 37.00 37.00
Over / under record 16-15 18-14
 

Preview

The Big Ten Tournament Semifinals are upon us, and the matchup between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Purdue Boilermakers is one of the most anticipated games of the tournament. The Buckeyes, who are seeded 13th in the tournament, are coming off a surprising victory over the 4th-seeded Michigan State, winning 68-58 as 6-point underdogs. This victory showcased the Buckeyes' resilience and determination, as they overcame the odds to secure their spot in the semifinals. The game is scheduled to tip-off at 1:00 ET from the United Center in Chicago and can be found on CBS. The winner of this game will advance to the Big Ten Tournament Final on Sunday, a significant achievement for either team. I'll make a full analysis on both teams and give you a final prediction on who will win so get ready for some NCAAB Picks today.

 

Ohio State Buckeyes

The Ohio State Buckeyes have been turning heads with their impressive run in the Big Ten Tournament, and their performance so far is especially crucial as they are not currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament. However, the Buckeyes seem to be hitting their stride at the perfect time, winning five out of their last six games and finally playing up to their potential.

In their most recent game against Michigan State, the Buckeyes were led by freshman guard Bruce Thornton, who had a career-high 21 points and six assists in the victory. Thornton has been on fire lately, scoring 15 or more points in his last four games and elevating his play significantly in the conference tournament. Despite averaging just 10.3 PPG during the regular season, Thornton has been a standout performer for the Buckeyes in recent games, showcasing his skills and making a strong case for himself as the team's best player.

The Buckeyes' leading scorer Brice Sensabaugh was sidelined with knee soreness for the game against Michigan State, and his status for the upcoming matchup against Purdue remains uncertain. However, senior leader Justice Sueing stepped up with 14 points in the game and has been a reliable wing for the Buckeyes, averaging 12.2 PPG and 5.4 RPG.

 

Purdue Boilermakers

As the number 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, Purdue came into their game against Rutgers expecting to dominate. However, the Scarlet Knights put up a fierce fight, and Purdue was forced to work hard for their victory. Junior forward Mason Gillis was the star of the game for the Boilermakers, scoring 20 points in the win. Although Purdue's 7'4 center Zach Edey was held to 16 points and 11 rebounds, he still managed to have a solid game by most standards. Edey has been the focal point of all Purdue basketball conversations this season, and with good reason. The Big Ten Player of the Year has been a dominant force in the conference, leading the league in scoring and rebounding.

Freshman guard Braden Smith is another important piece of the Purdue puzzle, serving as the primary ballhandler for the team. Smith averages 10.0 PPG and 4.2 APG and has been an important contributor all season long. Fletcher Loyer, another freshman guard, is the best shooter on the team, averaging 11.6 PPG on the season. Although Loyer was held to only 4 points against Rutgers, his shooting ability will be crucial for Purdue's success going forward.

Purdue is currently ranked 6th overall by KenPom, which is the best ranking in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers have a potent offense, ranked 8th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and a solid defense, ranked 27th. According to Joe Lunardi's projections, Purdue is currently slated to be a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Despite their impressive resume, Purdue knows that they cannot take Ohio State lightly. The Buckeyes have been playing better basketball as of late and have won their last five out of six games. Although Ohio State is not projected to make the NCAA Tournament, they have shown that they are a dangerous team and are eager to continue their Cinderella run through the Big Ten Tournament.

 

BETTING TRENDS

Purdue are 3-2 in their last 5 games.

Purdue are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread.

Ohio State are 4-1 in their last 5 games.

Ohio State are 5-0 in their last 5 games against the spread

 

Prediction

With both Ohio State and Purdue playing tough defense all season, it's no surprise that the over/under for this game is set at 134. Despite the Buckeyes' impressive run in the tournament, they have averaged only 72.00 points per game this season, while Purdue has averaged 73.00 points per game. Furthermore, both teams have allowed fewer than 70 points per game, with Ohio State allowing an average of 69.00 points and Purdue allowing only 62.00 points per game.

In addition, both teams have a solid rebounding game, with Ohio State averaging 39.00 rebounds per game and Purdue averaging 33.00 rebounds per game. However, both teams also have solid defense, with Ohio State allowing only 37.00 rebounds per game and Purdue allowing the same amount.

Looking at recent trends, Ohio State has won five out of their last six games, and their defense has been a key factor in their success. They have allowed only 61.4 points per game in their last five games. Purdue, on the other hand, has won their last four games but has struggled against the spread, going 1-4 in their last five games.

Overall, with both teams playing solid defense and neither having a particularly high-scoring offense, it's likely that this game will be a low-scoring affair. Both teams will be looking to advance to the Big Ten Tournament Final, but it may come down to which team can execute their defensive game plan more effectively. As such, the under of 134 points is likely to cash.

 

PICK: Under 134 (-110)

 

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