Michigan State vs USC March Madness Predictions, 03/17

Odds

2022-2023 season stats

Preview

The NCAA Men's Basketball Championship - East Region - 1st Round is ready to showcase an exciting matchup between the 7th seed Michigan State Spartans (19-12) and the 10th seed USC Trojans (22-10). With both teams vying for a spot in the next round, this game promises to be a nail-biter. In this article, we will provide an extended preview of both teams, analyze their strengths and weaknesses, and make a final prediction on the outcome of the game.

USC Trojans

The USC Trojans, coached by Andy Enfield, have posted a 22-10 overall record and a 14-6 record in the Pac-12 Conference. Key victories include a 68-65 win over Arizona State and an 84-65 win against Colorado.

The Trojans' offensive efforts are led by guard Boogie Ellis, who averages 18.0 points per game on a 43.9% field goal percentage and an impressive 80.5% free throw percentage. Guard Drew Peterson is a vital contributor to the team, averaging 6.2 rebounds per game and 4.4 assists per game.

USC's offensive prowess is centered around their ability to score from the perimeter, thanks to Ellis' sharpshooting and their effective ball movement. Defensively, the Trojans have been solid, with Peterson serving as a strong rebounder and playmaker.

Despite their impressive record, the Trojans have also faced challenges in terms of consistency, as reflected by their 17-15-0 ATS record. They have struggled against tough defensive opponents, often leading to close games and occasional losses.

Michigan State Spartans

The Michigan State Spartans, led by head coach Tom Izzo, finished the regular season with a 19-12 overall record and an 11-8 record in the Big Ten Conference. Their impressive victories include an 84-78 win over Ohio State and an 80-65 win against Indiana.

The Spartans' offense is spearheaded by guard Tyson Walker, who averages 14.6 points per game on a 46.0% field goal percentage and a 79.2% free throw percentage. He's complemented by forward Joey Hauser, who contributes 6.9 rebounds per game and 1.4 offensive rebounds per game. Guard A.J. Hoggard is the team's assist leader, with 6.0 assists per game and a 30.4 minutes per game average.

Michigan State has showcased an exceptional ability to score points in the paint, thanks to their strong post players and aggressive drives to the basket. Their defense is anchored by Hauser, who has consistently provided a solid presence under the rim. The Spartans' ability to create second-chance opportunities through offensive rebounds has been a key factor in their success this season.

However, the team has struggled with consistency, as evidenced by their 15-16-0 record against the spread (ATS). Their perimeter shooting has been a weak spot, making it challenging for them to keep pace with high-scoring opponents.

BETTING TRENDS

The total has gone OVER in 5 of USC's last 7 games.

USC are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.

USC are 0-9 SU in their last 9 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.

USC are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games played in March.

USC are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Friday.

Michigan State are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Michigan State's last 6 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Michigan State's last 15 games against an opponent in the Pac-12 conference.

The total has gone OVER in 9 of Michigan State's last 11 games played in March.

Prediction

After analyzing both teams' strengths and weaknesses, we predict that USC will emerge victorious in this 1st Round showdown. The Trojans' superior perimeter shooting and solid defense will be the key factors in their win against the Spartans. While Michigan State boasts a strong inside game and aggressive rebounding, their inconsistency in perimeter shooting will hinder their ability to keep up with USC's offense.

I believe that USC's ability to exploit Michigan State's weaknesses will prove crucial in their triumph. The Trojans' offensive strategy, which capitalizes on their sharpshooting abilities, will pose challenges for the Spartans' defense, ultimately tilting the scales in USC's favor.

In conclusion, while both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, the USC Trojans' superior perimeter shooting and strong defensive presence will be the deciding factors in this matchup. Despite the odds, I believe that the Trojans will upset the favored Michigan State Spartans and advance to the next round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship.

PICK: USC ML (+105)

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