© Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

 

WNBA Playoffs Picks: Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx - Game 1 Playoff Analysis and Betting Prediction

Introduction

The first round of the 2024 WNBA playoffs kicks off with an exciting matchup between the Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx. The Lynx, who finished with an impressive 30-10 record, are the second seed in the Western Conference and hold home-court advantage for this series. The Mercury, who scraped into the playoffs with a 19-21 record, face a tall task in knocking off the powerhouse Lynx. Despite the odds being stacked against them, the Mercury have proven they can be dangerous, especially with their potent offensive threats.

 

Game Odds

Team	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Phoenix Mercury	+9.5	o158.5	+400
Minnesota Lynx	-9.5	u158.5	-550

The Lynx are heavy favorites in this matchup, with a 9.5-point spread. The total is set at 158.5, which seems low considering the offensive firepower both teams possess. The Mercury will need to exceed expectations offensively if they are to stay competitive, while the Lynx will look to continue their dominance, especially at home.

Team Analysis

Phoenix Mercury

The Phoenix Mercury had a turbulent season but still managed to secure a playoff spot with a 19-21 record. Kahleah Copper has been the driving force for Phoenix, averaging 21.1 points per game. Her ability to score from anywhere on the court makes her a constant threat, and she will be key if the Mercury are to have any chance of winning. However, the Mercury will need more from players like Brittney Griner and Natasha Cloud, who have shown flashes of brilliance throughout the season.

The Mercury’s defense, however, has been a concern, allowing an average of 84.7 points per game. They have struggled against high-powered offenses like Minnesota's, which makes the over a tempting option for bettors. With both teams potentially dealing with injuries, Phoenix may have an opportunity to capitalize on Minnesota’s possible lack of depth, but they will need to bring their best defensive effort.

Minnesota Lynx

The Minnesota Lynx have been one of the most dominant teams in the WNBA this season, finishing with a 30-10 record and securing the second seed in the Western Conference. Led by Napheesa Collier, who averages 20.4 points and 9.7 rebounds per game, the Lynx have been a force on both ends of the floor. Collier is a double-double machine and will be a matchup nightmare for the Mercury defense, especially if they can’t contain her in the paint.

In addition to Collier, the Lynx boast a balanced attack with contributions from players like Crystal Williams, who averages 5.5 assists per game, and Dorka Juhasz, who provides valuable scoring and rebounding off the bench. Minnesota’s defense has been solid all season, allowing only 76 points per game, but they will need to be at their best to contain the Mercury’s dynamic offense.

Recent Performance

Phoenix Mercury

The Mercury enter this matchup on the back of an inconsistent stretch, winning two of their last five games. In their most recent outing, they suffered a lopsided 89-70 loss to the Seattle Storm. Prior to that, they secured two crucial wins against the Los Angeles Sparks and Chicago Sky, with Copper putting up huge scoring numbers in both games. Despite these wins, Phoenix’s defense has been a major issue, allowing 80+ points in three of their last five contests. If they are to keep pace with the high-scoring Lynx, the Mercury will need to find a way to tighten up defensively while continuing to push the pace offensively.

Minnesota Lynx

The Lynx have been in top form over their last five games, winning four of them, including impressive victories over New York and Chicago. In their most recent game, however, they were upset by the Los Angeles Sparks, losing 68-51 in a low-scoring affair. That game was an outlier for the Lynx, who have otherwise been dominant, averaging over 80 points in their previous four contests. Collier has been exceptional, and her ability to control the paint will be crucial in this playoff series. With the Mercury’s weak interior defense, expect the Lynx to run their offense through Collier early and often.

Head-to-Head Comparison

The Lynx have dominated the season series against the Mercury, winning three of the four matchups. Their most recent encounter on August 28 saw Minnesota come away with a convincing 89-76 victory, as Collier dominated the game with 28 points and 11 rebounds. Phoenix’s lone win came in a nail-biting 81-80 victory back in May, but since then, the Lynx have controlled the series. The Mercury have struggled to contain Minnesota’s balanced attack, and unless they can find an answer for Collier, it could be another long night for Phoenix.

Against the Spread (ATS) Records

The Mercury have been inconsistent against the spread this season, covering in 45% of their games, but their ATS record on the road is even worse, as they’ve covered only 40% of the time. Meanwhile, the Lynx have been one of the best ATS teams in the league, covering in 60% of their games, and they’ve been even better at home, covering in 65% of their home games. Given the Lynx’s dominance at home and Phoenix’s struggles on the road, Minnesota looks like the stronger ATS option here.

Betting Stats and Trends

The total for this game is set at 158.5 points, which seems low considering the offensive capabilities of both teams. The Mercury have gone over the total in 6 of their last 10 games, while the Lynx have gone over in 7 of their last 10. Both teams play at a relatively fast pace, and with Phoenix’s defensive struggles, this game has the potential to be a high-scoring affair. The Mercury’s reliance on Copper and Griner for scoring, combined with Collier’s dominance for Minnesota, suggests that the over is a strong play in this matchup.

Prediction