Matchup Overview

The Cowboys return home at 3-4-1 after a brutal road loss in Denver. Arizona is on a five-game skid, but Kyler Murray may be active as a backup while Jacoby Brissett gets the start. Dallas remains unbeaten at AT&T Stadium this season (2-0-1) and will look to stabilize their season behind Dak Prescott’s 16:5 TD:INT ratio and an efficient ground attack led by Javonte Williams.

Best Bet: Cowboys -3.5

Dallas has been elite at home, averaging 40 points per game in Arlington, while Arizona’s defense has allowed 27+ in five straight. The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and now face a Dallas team desperate to get back to .500. If Brissett starts, the Cowboys’ pass rush (top 10 in pressure rate) should disrupt rhythm early.

• Trend: DAL 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. teams under .500
• Projection: DAL 31 – ARI 23
• Lean: Over 53.5 (both teams top-10 in offensive pace)

Confidence: 4/5

Player Props to Target

With expected offensive tempo and two quarterbacks who push pace, several player props stand out for this primetime matchup.

• 🏈 Dak Prescott — Over 267.5 Passing Yards (-115): Arizona’s secondary has allowed 8.1 YPA and ranks bottom-5 in completion percentage allowed on third down.
• 💪 Javonte Williams — Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115): Dallas will lean on balance; Arizona has allowed 130+ rush yards in four straight.
• 🔥 CeeDee Lamb — Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-115): Coming off back-to-back 100-yard home games. His 31% target share leads all NFC WRs since Week 5.
• 🎯 George Pickens — Anytime Touchdown (+150): Has scored in three of the last four and faces an Arizona defense that’s allowed seven WR touchdowns in five games.

Game Flow Prediction

Expect Dallas to start fast and lean on their defense after a week of criticism. Brissett can keep Arizona competent, but sustained drives will be hard without Murray’s mobility. The Cowboys’ home-field advantage and red-zone efficiency (TD on 71% of trips) should create the separation needed late.

• First Half Lean: Cowboys -2.5 (first half)
• Total Lean: Over 53.5 — expect second-half scoring surge as tempo increases

Summary

• Spread Pick: Cowboys -3.5 ✅
• Total: Over 53.5 (lean)
• Best Prop: CeeDee Lamb Over 80.5 Receiving Yards
• Same Game Parlay Idea: DAL ML + Lamb 80+ yds + Prescott 2+ TDs (+340)

Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 34, Cardinals 24