UFC Picks April 5, 2025: Full Fight Card Predictions, Odds & Best Bets

Kingpin
Apr 5, 2025, 4:56:36 AM

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs Murphy – Full Card Predictions & Best Bets

Josh Emmett vs Lerone Murphy – 9:00 PM ET (ESPN+) – UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Moneyline Odds: Lerone Murphy -330, Josh Emmett +250
Weight Class: Featherweight (145 lbs)
Height: Emmett 5'6" vs Murphy 5'9"
Reach: Emmett 70″ vs Murphy 73″
Stance: Emmett Orthodox vs Murphy Orthodox
Records: Emmett (19-4) vs Murphy (15-0-1)

Fight Preview: Undefeated Lerone Murphy draws a dangerous veteran in Josh Emmett in this main event. Murphy is a sharp kickboxer riding a perfect record, with 7 of his 15 wins coming by knockout. He’s a precise striker, landing 4.80 significant strikes per minute at a 59.5% clip, and will enjoy a 3-inch reach advantage in this matchup. Emmett, however, is a proven power puncher with 7 knockouts of his own and serious one-punch power. The 40-year-old Emmett fights aggressively but can be hittable (37.7% striking accuracy). He’ll likely swing big overhands while Murphy works a cleaner kickboxing game from range. Emmett’s wrestling (0.91 takedowns per 15) is used sparingly, and Murphy’s 73% takedown defense should keep this fight mostly standing. At 7 years younger, Murphy has the fresher chin and faster hands. Emmett is battle-tested – he’s gone five rounds before – but he has taken damage in recent wars. Murphy’s high output and movement should allow him to outland Emmett while avoiding the Team Alpha Male vet’s homerun shots. Emmett’s best chance is to clip Murphy with a fight-ending punch or mix in surprise takedowns. However, Murphy’s disciplined style and superior striking accuracy give him the edge over five rounds.

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Murphy enters with strong momentum after decision wins over Dan Ige and Edson Barboza, showing he can maintain volume late. Emmett rebounded with a 1st-round KO of Bryce Mitchell, but he struggled in decision losses to elite opposition last year. Emmett’s durability is still solid – he went all 5 rounds absorbing Topuria’s strikes – so Murphy may have to settle for a points victory. Murphy himself has gone the distance in 4 of his last 5 fights. With Emmett’s resilience and Murphy’s patient approach, a decision is the most likely outcome. Look for Murphy to use his jab, kicks, and footwork to pile up scoring and avoid Emmett’s occasional flurries.

Best Bet: Murphy by Decision. Murphy is a sizeable favorite, so targeting his most likely method provides value. His volume and defense should carry him on the scorecards over the hard-swinging Emmett, who has proven tough to finish.

Top Fighter Prop: Lerone Murphy by KO/TKO (+280). While a decision is favored, Murphy does have a 47% knockout rate and hits very accurately. If Emmett’s 40-year-old chin has faded at all, Murphy could capitalize with a clean counter for a late stoppage.

Pat Sabatini vs Joanderson Brito – 9:00 PM ET (ESPN+) – UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Moneyline Odds: Joanderson Brito -230, Pat Sabatini +180
Weight Class: Featherweight (145 lbs)
Height: Sabatini 5'8" vs Brito 5'8"
Reach: Sabatini 70″ vs Brito 72″
Stance: Sabatini Orthodox vs Brito Orthodox
Records: Sabatini (19-5) vs Brito (17-4-1)

Fight Preview: This co-main features a classic grappler vs striker matchup. Pat Sabatini is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and former D1 wrestler who averages a hefty 3.97 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s a smothering grappler with 10 of his 19 wins by submission. Across from him, Joanderson Brito is an explosive finisher – all five of his UFC wins have come via stoppage. Brito fights at a frenetic pace, throwing looping power hooks and flying knees. He lands 3.02 significant strikes per minute to Sabatini’s 1.94, and Brito’s aggression carries into his wrestling as well. Surprisingly, Brito attempts takedowns at nearly the same rate as Sabatini (3.08 per 15), though usually to explode into ground-and-pound. On the feet Brito holds a clear power edge – he starches opponents early when he connects clean. Sabatini’s striking is more conservative and technical, but his 59% striking accuracy suggests he only engages on his terms.

The key will be whether Sabatini can impose his grappling without getting clipped. Sabatini’s lone UFC stoppage loss came when a striker (Damon Jackson) caught him cold in the first minute, so Brito will likely storm out fast looking for a repeat. If Sabatini survives the early onslaught and secures takedowns, he can work his top game and hunt submissions. Brito’s 73% takedown defense is solid, but he can be overzealous scrambling – he lost position trying an ill-advised back-take against William Gomis, costing him a round in a fight many felt he won. Sabatini is the best grappler Brito has faced, an “undefeated record as a professional grappler” with suffocating control. However, Brito’s athleticism and strength have allowed him to overwhelm “lesser grapplers” quickly on the mat. This fight likely swings on early momentum. If Brito lands heavy shots in the first round or two, he could put Sabatini away. But if Sabatini can drag Brito into extended grappling exchanges, the Philly native’s superior technique could wear down Brito and set up a submission.

Given Brito’s history, an early finish is a strong possibility – either he catches Sabatini or overcommits and falls into a choke. Brito is coming off a controversial split decision in Paris that snapped a 5-fight win streak (many thought he won), so he’ll be eager to make a statement. Expect Brito to start fast and Sabatini to be on high alert defensively.

Best Bet: Brito Inside the Distance. The dynamic here favors a finish. Brito has finished every UFC win and will force a firefight or heavy ground-and-pound if it hits the mat. Sabatini’s best chance is a submission if Brito gets overly aggressive. Either way, a stoppage is likely before the final horn.

Top Fighter Prop: Joanderson Brito by KO/TKO (+110). Brito’s wild power striking has yielded knockouts in 3 of his last 5 wins. Sabatini has been knocked out in the first round before, and Brito’s “effectively wild” hooks and overhands can find the target early. At plus money, Brito via knockout is an enticing prop given his fight-ending explosiveness.

Cortavious Romious vs ChangHo Lee – 9:00 PM ET (ESPN+) – UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Moneyline Odds: ChangHo Lee -130, Cortavious Romious +110
Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs)
Height: Romious 5'4" vs Lee 5'8"
Reach: Romious 68″ vs Lee 69″
Stance: Romious Southpaw vs Lee Orthodox
Records: Romious (9-3) vs Lee (10-1)

Fight Preview: Former Road to UFC winner ChangHo Lee makes his official UFC debut against Cortavious Romious in a striker-versus-grappler showdown. Lee is a well-rounded South Korean prospect who’s 3-0 in the UFC if you include his Road to UFC tournament fights. He brings an aggressive striking attack, averaging a whopping 4.90 significant strikes per minute with a remarkable 70% accuracy. Lee’s Muay Thai background shows in his sharp combinations and hard low kicks. Romious, in contrast, has struggled to find his footing in the UFC (1-2 UFC record). He’s a southpaw with decent wrestling chops – Romious lands about 2 takedowns per fight at a strong 66% accuracy. His striking output (2.10 sig strikes/min) is much lower than Lee’s, and he’s less accurate (37%), often looking to close distance and grapple.

A key factor here is Romious missing weight by 3.5 pounds for this bout. The miss could indicate a rough weight cut that might hurt his cardio. That’s troublesome against Lee’s high pace. Lee likes to push the tempo with fast hands and has shown he can wrestle too, averaging 3.24 takedowns per 15 himself. However, Lee’s takedown success rate is only 30%, and his defensive wrestling is a concern (just 38% takedown defense). If Romious can get inside, he might take Lee down or pin him to the fence. The question is whether Romious can handle Lee’s striking long enough to enforce grappling. Romious absorbs 3.0 strikes a minute and only defends 39% of strikes – a perilous stat against Lee’s volume and power. Lee will own a 4-inch height advantage and should use his length to pick apart Romious at range. Romious’ best path is to turn this into a clinch fight, slow the pace, and test Lee’s ground game and stamina. But given Lee’s output and Romious’ tendency to fade late, the odds favor the Korean prospect to outwork Romious. Lee has also shown solid durability and poise in his fights thus far.

If Romious can’t consistently get takedowns, he’ll be eating a lot of leather. Lee’s combinations and willingness to throw in volume should impress the judges. Add in that Romious “has already struggled in the UFC” and you have a recipe for Lee to shine. Unless Romious finds a submission or drastically improved striking defense, Lee’s superior stand-up and better momentum (10-fight win streak) give him the edge.

Best Bet: ChangHo Lee to Win. Lee’s slight favorite status is justified – he has advantages in striking output and likely in confidence. He should be able to keep the fight standing and rack up points with his kickboxing. Romious’ weight miss and UFC track record make it hard to back him despite the plus odds.

Top Fighter Prop: ChangHo Lee by KO/TKO (+150). Lee isn’t a huge one-punch knockout artist, but his 70% striking accuracy means he lands clean often. If Romious fades in the second half, Lee could pour on a barrage for a finish. A late TKO via volume is in play given Romious’ defensive lapses and potential cardio issues.

Brad Tavares vs Gerald Meerschaert – 9:00 PM ET (ESPN+) – UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Moneyline Odds: Brad Tavares -170, Gerald Meerschaert +140
Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs)
Height: Tavares 6'1" vs Meerschaert 6'1"
Reach: Tavares 74″ vs Meerschaert 77″
Stance: Tavares Orthodox vs Meerschaert Southpaw
Records: Tavares (20-11) vs Meerschaert (37-18)

Fight Preview: Veteran middleweights collide as striker Brad Tavares meets submission ace Gerald “GM3” Meerschaert. Tavares is a well-rounded kickboxer who has fought a who’s who of the division. He’s known for a strong jab, low kicks, and excellent takedown defense (80% defense rate). Meerschaert is a crafty southpaw grappler holding 27 submission wins in his career – he’s the all-time UFC middleweight submission leader. On the feet, Tavares should have the edge in technique and speed. He lands 3.43 significant strikes per minute to Meerschaert’s 3.10, and Tavares is a bit more defensively sound (55% striking defense vs GM3’s 53%). Meerschaert’s standup is serviceable but largely a means to set up takedowns or clinches. The ground is where GM3 shines – he averages 1.5 submission attempts per 15 minutesand is lethal if he can latch onto the neck or an arm. However, getting Tavares down is no easy task; Tavares stuffs 4 out of 5 takedown tries on average and has stymied high-level wrestlers before.

One concern for Tavares is that he’s been finished by strikes in 2 of his last 4 fights. Meerschaert, despite his grappling rep, has shown improved striking power (he knocked down Bruno Silva before submitting him). And of course, GM3’s own chin can be shaky – he’s been KO’d in the first round by heavy hitters like Khamzat Chimaev and Joe Pyfer. This volatility makes this fight hard to predict method-wise. If it stays at kickboxing range, expect Tavares to methodically pick Meerschaert apart with leg kicks and 1-2 combos. GM3 will likely try to pressure against the cage and drag Tavares down or coax him into a scramble. Notably, Meerschaert is a taller fighter by listings and will have a 3-inch reach advantage, which could aid him in clinches and snatching chokes if Tavares leaves his neck out.

Both men are 37 years old and have over 30 pro fights, so neither has a big youth edge. Cardio-wise, Tavares has gone five rounds before and Meerschaert has multiple 3rd-round finishes, so conditioning is reliable on both sides. The big X-factor is fight IQ: Tavares tends to fight cautiously, going to decision often, while Meerschaert is more willing to risk it all for a finish. In fact, 5 of Meerschaert’s last 6 fights have ended inside the distance (either he submits his foe or gets stopped). Tavares has seen 2 of his last 4 end early as well. Given GM3’s kill-or-be-killed style lately, this matchup may end with someone getting finished rather than a slow-paced decision.

Best Bet: Fight to Not Go The Distance (+115). Meerschaert’s recent fights almost always produce a finish, and Tavares has been involved in more stoppages lately as well. Tavares is the rightful favorite to win, but at nearly pick’em odds the safer value play is that one of these veterans finds a finish. Either Tavares lands a big shot on GM3’s chin, or Meerschaert finds a submission in a scramble. A finish could happen on either side, so rather than picking a winner, the inside-the-distance prop at plus money is attractive.

Top Fighter Prop: Gerald Meerschaert by Submission (+300). For a longshot prop, the grappling savant by sub is worth a look. Tavares has only been submitted once in 31 fights, but Meerschaert is the best submission artist he’s faced. If GM3 wins, it’s very likely via tapping Tavares out. He’s pulled off 3rd-round submissions as an underdog before – a GM3 guillotine or rear-naked choke is always lurking. At 3-to-1 odds or better, it’s a solid flier in a fight that could hit the mat at times.

Ode’ Osbourne vs Luis “Grim” Gurule – 9:00 PM ET (ESPN+) – UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Moneyline Odds: Luis Gurule -280, Ode’ Osbourne +210
Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lbs)
Height: Osbourne 5'7" vs Gurule 5'5"
Reach: Osbourne 73″ vs Gurule 64″
Stance: Osbourne Southpaw vs Gurule Orthodox
Records: Osbourne (12-8) vs Gurule (10-0)

Fight Preview: This flyweight clash pits a veteran against a newcomer, and it could be fireworks for as long as it lasts. Ode’ Osbourne is a flashy striker with UFC experience, while Luis Gurule makes his UFC debut as an undefeated prospect known for his knockout power. Notably, Osbourne will have a massive 9-inch reach advantage – 73″ to Gurule’s 64″ – which is almost unheard of at flyweight. He’ll try to use that length to snipe at range with his southpaw kicks and long punches. Osbourne is explosive and unorthodox (flying knees, spinning attacks), but he’s also been inconsistent and chinny. He’s been knocked out three times in the UFC. Gurule, by contrast, has five of his six stoppage wins by KO and earned a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series with his striking. The “Grim” Gurule fights out of a boxing-heavy stance, marches forward, and throws with fight-ending intentions in every exchange.

Early on, Osbourne’s speed and reach could give Gurule issues. Osbourne will likely fire front kicks and straight lefts to keep Gurule at bay. If he can maintain distance, he can pile up points or even land a flying knee if Gurule rushes in recklessly. However, Gurule’s pressure is relentless. He sits down on his punches and only needs one flush shot to turn the tide. Osbourne absorbs more strikes than he lands on average and has sometimes struggled when opponents swarm him. Gurule will certainly test that – expect him to wade through some shots to get into the pocket. One angle to watch is wrestling: Osbourne has shown he can mix in takedowns and submissions (he has 4 sub wins). Given Gurule’s compact frame and aggressive style, a well-timed level change by Osbourne could catch him off guard. Yet Gurule has solid hips and trains with wrestling partners, so it won’t be easy to ground him.

Ultimately, this fight feels like “who lands clean first.” Osbourne has the length and experience advantage, but Gurule’s power and Osbourne’s suspect chin tilt the odds toward the newcomer. Osbourne’s recent losses came by KO against heavy-hitters (Manel Kape, Tyson Nam), and Gurule fits that archetype of a compact puncher with a big overhand right. If Osbourne can’t keep Gurule at the end of his jab and kicks, an exchange in the pocket could end violently. On the flip side, if Gurule’s aggression backfires, Osbourne is capable of snatching a quick submission (as he did early in his career) or landing a fight-ending knee. The small cage at the Apex also favors Gurule’s pressure style.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Rounds. Given Gurule’s knockout-or-bust approach and Osbourne’s finishing ability and defensive lapses, an early finish is likely. These two combined have only seen the judges a handful of times. Either Gurule lands the knockout he’s known for, or Osbourne uses Gurule’s forward momentum to secure a finish of his own. In a high-voltage flyweight matchup, under 2.5 rounds covers both men’s most probable paths to victory.

Top Fighter Prop: Luis Gurule by KO/TKO (-125). If you expect the favorite to justify his hype, Gurule by knockout is the way he’s most likely to get it done. He has an 83% KO rate as a pro and will surely look to test Osbourne’s chin early and often. With his tendency to turn fights into slugfests, Gurule by KO is a logical prop (and it may cash in the very first round).

Torrez “The Punisher” Finney vs Robert Valentin – 9:00 PM ET (ESPN+) – UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Moneyline Odds: Torrez Finney -300, Robert Valentin +230
Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs)
Height: Finney 5'8" vs Valentin 6'2"
Reach: Finney 75.5″ vs Valentin 77″
Stance: Finney Orthodox vs Valentin Orthodox (probable)
Records: Finney (10-0) vs Valentin (11-4)

Fight Preview: Highly touted Torrez Finney makes his UFC debut, bringing an undefeated record and freakish wrestling pedigree into a matchup with Swiss fighter Robert “Robzilla” Valentin. Finney is a former college football player turned mixed martial artist who tore through Dana White’s Contender Series. In fact, Finney became the first fighter to win three Contender Series fights (he fought on multiple weeks) to earn his contract. He showcased each method of victory during that run – a knockout, a submission, and a decision – underlining his versatility. Statistically, Finney’s Contender Series grappling was off the charts: he averaged 10.04 takedowns per 15 minutes with 69% accuracy. Those numbers indicate relentless chain-wrestling and explosive shots. Finney is built compact and powerful at 5’8″ and uses his low center of gravity to drive opponents to the mat. On the feet, he’s no slouch either, with a 70% striking accuracy on the Contender Series (albeit in small sample). He typically strikes to close distance, throwing overhand rights and left hooks to set up level changes.

Facing him is Valentin, a fighter who made the TUF 31 finals last year. Valentin is 6’2″ with a 77″ reach, giving him a significant length advantage. He’s primarily a grappler as well – 6 of his 11 wins are by submission. In the TUF finale (which counts as his UFC fight), Valentin was finished by ground-and-pound in Round 2. That fight revealed some defensive gaps: Valentin absorbed 6.16 strikes per minute and only had 19% striking defense, as he was largely on his back eating shots. Offensively, he didn’t show much striking (0.15 landed per minute), but he did attempt submissions from guard (4.4 submission attempts per 15). Valentin is comfortable off his back hunting armbars and triangles, but being stuck under Finney is a dangerous place to be.

Finney’s gameplan is no secret: he will shoot early and often. Valentin’s 66% takedown defense from his one fight won’t likely hold up against Finney’s caliber of wrestling. If Valentin can keep it standing, his 6-inch height and more polished kickboxing could come into play. However, Finney’s forward pressure is intense, and Valentin isn’t known for one-shot knockout power to deter that. More likely, Finney will put Valentin on the fence or canvas within the first minute. From top position, Finney unleashes heavy ground-and-pound and advances methodically – he’s shown an ability to pass guard and even look for submissions (1.7 sub attempts per 15 in DWCS). Valentin’s best chance is to use his long limbs to threaten a submission off his back or catch Finney in a guillotine during a shot. But Finney hasn’t been taken down or put in bad spots yet; his balance and awareness are excellent (0 takedowns allowed on DWCS) Between Finney’s dominant wrestling and Valentin’s finishing liability (3 of his 4 losses by finish), this fight is set up for the prospect to shine. Finney has finished 8 of his 10 wins, and Valentin’s lone UFC-level fight was a TKO loss. If Finney secures mount or back control, he could pound out Valentin or lock in a choke. There’s always a chance the UFC debut jitters slow Finney down, but given his experience under the Contender Series spotlight, he seems ready for this stage.

Best Bet: Finney to Win by Finish (-120). Laying 3-to-1 on an unproven newcomer is tough, but Finney’s dominant style makes an inside-the-distance bet appealing. He has an 80% finish rate and Valentin has been finished in the majority of his losses. Finney’s relentless pressure should lead to a stoppage – likely via TKO from ground strikes or a submission after softening Valentin up.

Top Fighter Prop: Torrez Finney by TKO/KO (+100). Finney could find a submission, but a ground TKO is slightly more likely given his heavy punches from top. Valentin was beaten by ground-and-pound in TUF, and Finney’s “Punisher” moniker is fitting – he loves to dole out punishment from mount. At around even money, Finney by KO/TKO covers a referee stoppage due to strikes, which is a very plausible outcome once he establishes top control.

Prelims

Diana Belbita vs Dione Barbosa – 6:00 PM ET (ESPN+) – UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Moneyline Odds: Dione Barbosa -1000, Diana Belbita +600
Weight Class: Women’s Flyweight (125 lbs)
Height: Belbita 5'7" vs Barbosa 5'6"
Reach: Belbita 68″ vs Barbosa 66.5″
Stance: Belbita Orthodox vs Barbosa Orthodox
Records: Belbita (15-9) vs Barbosa (7-3)

Fight Preview: In this prelim opener, Canada’s Diana Belbita welcomes Brazil’s Dione Barbosa to the Octagon. Barbosa is a Kings MMA product making her UFC debut with a grappling-heavy style, which explains her enormous favorite status. Belbita is a UFC veteran striker who’s had mixed results (2-4 UFC). On the feet, Belbita actually holds advantages in volume. She lands 6.54 significant strikes per minute, a very high output, whereas Barbosa managed only 1.85 strikes per minute in her DWCS fight. Belbita’s background is in kickboxing, and she likes to brawl with flurries of punches and elbows in close. Barbosa, though, will be looking to close distance for a different reason – takedowns. Known as “The Witch,” Barbosa has 3 submission wins and trains under renowned coach Rafael Cordeiro. She’s physically strong and has shown an aggressive clinch game, often dragging fights to the mat quickly. Standing, Barbosa’s striking is rudimentary; she’ll throw a big overhand or body kick mainly to set up level changes.

The clear question: can Belbita fend off Barbosa’s takedowns? Belbita’s achilles heel has been grappling defense. Four of her nine career losses are by submission. In her last fight, she was taken down multiple times and controlled by Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Barbosa will likely shoot early. If she gets Belbita down, expect Barbosa to advance position and hunt for an arm or choke. Belbita has a decent guard and will throw elbows off her back, but against a BJJ purple belt of Barbosa’s caliber, that’s a dangerous game. On the flip side, if Belbita can stuff the initial takedowns and keep this fight upright for a round or two, Barbosa might tire. We’ve seen debuting fighters with grappling-heavy styles fade if they can’t secure a finish. Belbita has the far greater UFC experience and has gone three rounds several times. She’ll want to extend this fight and turn it into a high-volume striking match. Barbosa, by contrast, likely needs an early finish to justify the odds.

Stylistically, this is set up for Barbosa to shine. Belbita’s 66% takedown defense isn’t abysmal, but it hasn’t held up against solid grapplers. Once on the ground, Belbita’s defense has holes – she was armbarred in 2019 by a lesser grappler than Barbosa. Barbosa will also enjoy the luxury of not fearing Belbita’s power too much; Belbita isn’t a knockout artist (only 6 KO/TKOs in 15 wins, mostly against lower competition). If Barbosa can wade through strikes to grab a clinch, she should have a sizable advantage. It’s worth noting the psychological factor: Belbita is taking on a debutante who everyone expects to dominate her. That could free Belbita to throw caution to the wind and let her hands go without pressure. An upset isn’t impossible if she can turn this into a slugfest. Still, the most likely scenario is Barbosa finds a way to get it to the mat early.

Best Bet: Barbosa by Submission. The odds are extremely lopsided, so there’s no value in a straight bet on Barbosa. Instead, target her best path to victory: a submission on the ground. Belbita has been submitted multiple times, and Barbosa has a 43% submission win rate. With her being a -1000 favorite, the market clearly expects a dominant grappling display. Barbosa by submission likely comes in around the -200 to -250 range, which is steep but parlayable. It’s hard to see Belbita surviving prolonged grappling exchanges, so this is the logical call.

Top Fighter Prop: Dione Barbosa to Win in Round 1 (+120). If you’re riding the hype on Barbosa, consider her to get it done quickly. She’s a fast starter who will try to impose her game immediately. Belbita has been finished in the first round before (armbar loss in 2018, for example). An early takedown leading to a first-round tap is on the cards given Barbosa’s aggressive approach and Belbita’s defensive lapses.

Rhys McKee vs Daniel “Tigano” Frunza – 6:00 PM ET (ESPN+) – UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Moneyline Odds: Daniel Frunza -140, Rhys McKee +120
Weight Class: Welterweight (170 lbs)
Height: McKee 6'2" vs Frunza 6'1"
Reach: McKee 78″ vs Frunza 73″
Stance: McKee Orthodox vs Frunza Orthodox (probable)
Records: McKee (13-6-1) vs Frunza (9-2)

Fight Preview: Northern Ireland’s Rhys “Skeletor” McKee returns to the UFC to face Romanian slugger Daniel Frunza in a compelling welterweight tilt. McKee went 0-2 in his first UFC stint in 2020 (famously debuting against Khamzat Chimaev on short notice), but he has rebuilt himself by winning a Cage Warriors title. A tall, lanky striker, McKee stands 6’2″ with a long 78″ reach. He uses that length for rangy one-twos, snapping front kicks, and intercepting knees up the middle. Frunza, by contrast, is a stockier 6’1″ pressure fighter known for ferocious punching power – eight of his nine wins have come via knockout. He likes to explode into hooks and overhands, often leaving defense aside to chase the finish. This style has earned him a 89% KO rate, but also his two losses (both by decision) when opponents survived the storm.

If this fight stays standing, it’s volume and precision (McKee) versus brute force (Frunza). McKee lands at a high clip and can accumulate damage with his jab and straight punches. His striking defense isn’t perfect, but he generally avoids brawls unless drawn into one. Frunza will certainly try to drag McKee into the phone booth and test that chin. McKee’s chin has held up decently – he went a full 15 with Alex Morono in his last UFC fight – but he has been knocked out earlier in his career by heavy hitters. Frunza represents that kind of kill-shot threat. One big overhand right from him can put anyone’s lights out. On the flip side, Frunza’s aggressive style leaves openings. He absorbs strikes (6.16 absorbed per minute in his DWCS bout, albeit a small sample) and could walk into McKee’s counters. Notably, McKee also has a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and 3 submission wins. He might look to mix in grappling to mitigate Frunza’s power. Frunza has 0 submissions on record and is far more one-dimensional. If McKee can get takedowns or even catch a front headlock during a wild exchange, he could exploit Frunza’s lesser ground game.

The X-factor is experience and cardio. McKee has been in five-round championship fights and deep waters; Frunza has rarely seen Round 3. If this fight goes past the first round, the pendulum swings toward McKee. Frunza slowed noticeably in his only fight that went to decision. McKee’s plan may be to stay mobile and defensively sound early, let Frunza swing haymakers at air, and take over in the latter half with superior conditioning. We have seen McKee implement that game in Cage Warriors, weathering early heat and then pouring it on. With a 5-inch reach advantage and likely a slight speed edge, McKee can stick and move to frustrate Frunza.

Best Bet: Rhys McKee to Win (+120). As a slight underdog, McKee brings a more well-rounded skill set and proven endurance. He’s fought higher-caliber competition and learned from it. If he avoids Frunza’s early KO shot – which his reach and footwork can help him do – McKee should outclass Frunza as the fight wears on. In a smaller cage there is some risk of Frunza closing distance, but McKee’s savvy and diversity (striking and grappling) give him multiple paths to victory.

Top Fighter Prop: Rhys McKee by KO/TKO (+250). While McKee is often thought of as a volume striker, he certainly can finish a fight with strikes – 10 of his 13 wins are knockouts. Frunza’s defensive holes and likely fatigue by Round 2 or 3 could present McKee an opportunity to swarm for a TKO. McKee throws excellent knees and kicks; a well-timed knee to a ducking Frunza or a barrage against the fence could lead to a referee stoppage. At +250 or better, McKee by KO is a solid prop in a fight where either man could realistically get the finish.

Loma Lookboonmee vs Istela Nunes – 6:00 PM ET (ESPN+) – UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Moneyline Odds: Loma Lookboonmee -770, Istela Nunes +540
Weight Class: Women’s Strawweight (115 lbs)
Height: Lookboonmee 5'1" vs Nunes 5'4"
Reach: Lookboonmee 61.5″ vs Nunes 66″
Stance: Lookboonmee Orthodox vs Nunes Orthodox
Records: Lookboonmee (9-3) vs Nunes (6-5, 1 NC)

Fight Preview: Thailand’s first female UFC fighter, Loma Lookboonmee, is a massive favorite here against Brazil’s Istela Nunes – and for good reason. Loma is a Muay Thai specialist with far superior technique and consistency compared to Nunes, who has yet to win in the UFC (0-3 UFC). On the feet, Loma’s clinch game and kickboxing are a level above. She lands 5.39 significant strikes per minute on average and excels in close quarters with elbows and knees. Nunes also comes from a striking base (Muay Thai), but her UFC performances have been lackluster, averaging only 1.85 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.21. Nunes tends to throw one strike at a time and can be low-output, which is a recipe for losing decisions. Loma, on the other hand, pushes a steady pace, attacking legs with kicks and closing distance to latch the clinch, where she unleashes slick trips. In fact, Lookboonmee has quietly developed a wrestling component to her game – she’s landing about 1.7 takedowns per fight, often via hip throws from the clinch.

Istela Nunes’ best moments in the UFC came early in fights where she landed a few hard shots, but she has struggled beyond the first round. Cardio has been an issue – she noticeably faded in losses to Sam Hughes and Ariane Carnelossi. Also, Nunes’ takedown defense is just 37%, which doesn’t bode well if Loma chooses to mix in her wrestling. Nunes has a 4-inch reach advantage and technically is the taller fighter, but she hasn’t used her range effectively thus far. Loma’s compact frame actually aids her in leverage for clinch throws and inside striking.

If Nunes is to have any success, it might be by keeping distance and using her length to snipe Loma coming in. But Loma’s seen similar styles and usually finds a way to close the gap. She outpointed taller strikers like Sam Hughes and Elise Reed by outworking them. The blueprint for Loma is likely lots of body kicks at range, quick entries to clinch for knee flurries, and perhaps even takedowns to seal rounds. Nunes’ path to victory likely requires a flash knockdown or a big momentum swing early (she does have a couple of knockouts on her record from pre-UFC days). However, Lookboonmee has never been finished in MMA and has shown a solid chin and defense.

In terms of grappling, Nunes has almost no offensive grappling threat (0 submissions in UFC or overall). If it goes to the ground, it’s probably because Loma put her there. From top, Loma isn’t a huge submission threat either, but she maintains control well. The judges should favor Loma’s activity and diversity of strikes as the fight progresses. With Nunes on a three-fight skid, her confidence could also be an issue, especially if she finds herself getting clinched and tossed by the smaller fighter.

Best Bet: Loma Lookboonmee by Decision. The odds are wide, but the most likely outcome is Loma winning on points. She’s not a known finisher – all 4 of her UFC wins are decisions – and Nunes, for all her struggles, has only been finished once (via submission). Loma should comfortably rack up minutes and strikes each round to earn a unanimous decision. This prop will still be heavily juiced, but it’s safer than laying -770 on the moneyline. Lookboonmee by decision is the expected result in a fight where she has the clear skill advantage.

Top Fighter Prop: Fight Goes the Distance (-300). While not tied to a single fighter, this prop covers the scenario of an upset as well. If Nunes somehow performs above expectations, it likely means making it a competitive striking match that still goes to the cards. The trend for both women (Loma a decision machine, Nunes lacking finishing prowess in UFC) points to a full 15 minutes. It’s heavily juiced, but adding “Fight goes the distance” could be a parlay piece to anchor an accumulator. (If you need a fighter-specific prop: Lookboonmee by Unanimous Decision is highly probable – she tends to clearly win rounds, and all her UFC wins are unanimous.)

Victor “La Mangosta” Henry vs Pedro “Pedrinho” Falcão – 6:00 PM ET (ESPN+) – UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Moneyline Odds: Victor Henry -230, Pedro Falcão +175
Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs)
Height: Henry 5'7" vs Falcão 5'6"
Reach: Henry 68″ vs Falcão 66″