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UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 - Fight Breakdown: Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Nicolle Caliari

On January 11, 2025, the UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 event takes place at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The prelims feature an intriguing women’s flyweight matchup between Lithuania’s Ernesta Kareckaite and Brazil’s Nicolle Caliari. Both fighters bring unique skill sets to the octagon, making this a clash of styles and a pivotal bout in the division.

 

Fighter Backgrounds

Ernesta Kareckaite

Ernesta Kareckaite (5-1-1) represents Fighters Land MMA and stands tall at 5'9", with a significant height and reach advantage in the flyweight division. Known for her nickname "Heavy-Handed", Kareckaite uses her striking skills and physicality to dominate opponents. Although she suffered her first professional loss in May 2024 against Dione Barbosa, her ability to bounce back from adversity has been a hallmark of her career. Kareckaite’s split-decision wins in Dana White’s Contender Series and Hexagone MMA highlight her grit and determination.

Nicolle Caliari

Nicolle Caliari (8-2-0) fights out of Thai Brasil and stands at 5'3". Despite being at a height and reach disadvantage, Caliari compensates with her aggressive striking and submission skills. With five knockout victories and three submissions, she is a finisher who thrives on pressuring her opponents. Coming off a submission victory against Corinne Laframboise on Dana White’s Contender Series in September 2024, Caliari is riding a wave of momentum into this bout.

Fighting Styles and Strengths

Ernesta Kareckaite

• Striking: Kareckaite utilizes her long reach and height advantage to control range and land powerful strikes.
• Defensive Awareness: She has shown solid defensive skills, often neutralizing her opponent's offense.
• Cardio: Kareckaite’s conditioning allows her to maintain her pace and output deep into fights.

Nicolle Caliari

• Aggression: Caliari’s aggressive striking style often puts her opponents on the back foot.
• Submission Game: With three submission victories, Caliari is a constant threat on the ground.
• Durability: She has shown an ability to withstand adversity and recover quickly during fights.

Recent Performances

Ernesta Kareckaite

Kareckaite's most recent outing was a unanimous decision loss to Dione Barbosa at UFC 301. Despite the setback, Kareckaite showcased resilience and determination against a tough opponent. Prior to that, she secured a split-decision victory against Carli Judice on Dana White’s Contender Series, earning her a UFC contract. Her split-decision win over Laetitia Blot in a five-round championship bout at Hexagone MMA further demonstrated her ability to compete in high-pressure situations.

Nicolle Caliari

Caliari enters this fight on a three-fight win streak, all via submission. Her latest win came against Corinne Laframboise in Dana White’s Contender Series, where she earned a first-round submission victory. Prior to that, Caliari defeated Daniela Antonelli and Carolina Jimenez, showcasing her grappling prowess and ability to finish fights on the ground. Caliari’s recent performances indicate that she is peaking at the right time in her career.

Odds and Betting Information

Fighter	Odds
Ernesta Kareckaite	-275
Nicolle Caliari	+225

The odds favor Ernesta Kareckaite at -275, reflecting her size advantage and technical striking ability. Nicolle Caliari, at +225, is a dangerous underdog who can capitalize on any mistakes with her aggressive style and submission skills.

Keys to Victory

Ernesta Kareckaite

• Control the Range: Use her reach advantage to keep Caliari at bay and land clean strikes from a distance.
• Defend the Takedown: Neutralize Caliari’s submission game by avoiding ground exchanges.
• Pick Her Shots: Focus on accuracy and avoid overextending in exchanges.

Nicolle Caliari

• Close the Distance: Work her way inside Kareckaite’s range to land power shots and secure takedowns.
• Grappling Advantage: Take the fight to the ground where she has a better chance of finding a submission.
• Maintain Pressure: Stay aggressive and push the pace to disrupt Kareckaite’s rhythm.

 

Prediction