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UFC Fight Night Predictions: Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moises, May 17, 2025

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moises, May 17, 2025

 

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales - Jared Gordon and Thiago Moises Square Off in Lightweight Preliminary Bout

The preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales next Saturday, May 17, 2025, live from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, features a tightly contested lightweight bout. American veteran Jared "Flash" Gordon steps into the octagon against Brazil's dangerous grappler Thiago Moises. This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup with very close betting odds.

Fighter Backgrounds

Jared Gordon

Jared "Flash" Gordon (20-7-0), representing Kill Cliff FC in the USA, is a tough and durable lightweight known for his boxing, pressure, and cardio. Gordon has secured seven wins via (T)KO and two by submission and has faced a high level of competition throughout his UFC career.

Thiago Moises

Thiago Moises (19-8-0), fighting out of American Top Team in Brazil, is a highly skilled lightweight with a dangerous grappling and submission game. Moises has secured four wins via (T)KO and eight by submission, highlighting his finishing abilities, particularly on the ground. He is looking to build consistency against tough opponents in the lightweight division.

Fighting Styles and Strengths

Jared Gordon

  • Boxing and Pressure: Gordon is a solid boxer who likes to pressure opponents and fight in close quarters.
  • Durability and Cardio: Known for his toughness and ability to maintain a good pace over three rounds.
  • Experience: Has extensive experience in the UFC against a variety of opponents.

Thiago Moises

  • Elite Grappling and Submissions: Moises' most significant strength is his dangerous ground game, with eight submission victories on his record.
  • Dangerous in Transitions: Quick to capitalize on mistakes and find submission opportunities.
  • Improving Striking: Has shown improvements in his striking to set up his grappling.

Recent Performances

Jared Gordon

Jared Gordon is coming off a split decision loss to Nasrat Haqparast in June 2024, a competitive striking battle. Prior to that, he secured a first-round TKO victory over Mark O. Madsen in November 2023 and had a No Contest against King Green in April 2023. He suffered a controversial unanimous decision loss to Paddy Pimblett in December 2022.

Thiago Moises

Thiago Moises is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Trey Ogden in January 2025, getting back in the win column. Prior to that, he suffered a unanimous decision loss to Ludovit Klein in June 2024 but secured a third-round TKO win against Mitch Ramirez in March 2024.

Odds and Betting Information

Fighter Odds
Jared Gordon -105
Thiago Moises -115

This lightweight preliminary bout is essentially a pick'em, with Jared Gordon listed at -105 and Thiago Moises as a very slight favorite at -115.

Keys to Victory

Jared Gordon

  • Utilize Boxing and Pressure: Gordon should look to keep the fight standing and utilize his boxing and pressure to outpoint Moises.
  • Defend Takedowns and Avoid Submissions: Preventing Moises from getting the fight to the ground will be crucial to avoid his dangerous submission game.
  • Maintain a High Pace: Pushing a relentless pace can potentially tire Moises over three rounds.

Thiago Moises

  • Implement Grappling and Submissions: Moises' clearest path to victory is to take Gordon down and secure a submission.
  • Capitalize on Transitions: Looking for opportunities to land takedowns or submissions in scrambles.
  • Be Wary of Gordon's Pressure: Avoiding getting overwhelmed by Gordon's boxing and pressure in striking exchanges.

Prediction

This lightweight preliminary bout is one of the closest on the card according to the betting odds, presenting a classic stylistic clash between Jared Gordon's pressure boxing and Thiago Moises' dangerous grappling. While Moises is a significant threat on the ground, Jared Gordon's toughness, cardio, and ability to keep the fight standing make him a difficult matchup. In a pick'em scenario, Gordon's durability and consistent pressure give him a slight edge, especially if he can avoid the submission threat.

Prediction: Jared Gordon to win (-105). In this tightly contested lightweight bout, Jared Gordon offers value at -105. While Thiago Moises is a dangerous grappler, Gordon's toughness, pressure, and boxing should allow him to keep the fight standing and outpoint Moises over three rounds. Expect a close decision, but Gordon has the tools to get his hand raised.

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