UFC Fight Night Predictions: Charriere vs Landwehr, July 12, 2025
- Lm Tipster
- Jul 10, 2025, 4:22:01 AM
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira - Prelim Pick: Morgan "The Last Pirate" Charrière vs. Nate "The Train" Landwehr
A highly anticipated featherweight clash is set for the prelims of UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira on July 12, 2025, at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. The charismatic Frenchman, Morgan "The Last Pirate" Charrière, will take on the always-entertaining Nate "The Train" Landwehr.
Fighter Backgrounds
Morgan Charrière
Morgan "The Last Pirate" Charrière (20-11-1) is a 29-year-old featherweight fighting out of Team Chapa Quente in France. A former Cage Warriors champion, Charrière made his highly anticipated UFC debut in September 2023 with a spectacular KO win over Manolo Zecchini. He's known for his exciting, fan-friendly style, often seeking finishes (12 TKO/KO wins). His UFC record currently stands at 2-2, with a recent unanimous decision loss to Nathaniel Wood in March 2025 and a TKO win over Gabriel Miranda in September 2024.
Nate Landwehr
Nate "The Train" Landwehr (18-6-0) is a 37-year-old American featherweight from MMA Masters. Landwehr is aptly nicknamed "The Train" due to his relentless forward pressure, high volume, and willingness to engage in wild exchanges. He is a former M-1 Global Featherweight Champion and has earned multiple post-fight bonuses in the UFC. His last fight was a TKO loss to Dooho Choi in December 2024, but prior to that, he secured a KO win over Jamall Emmers in March 2024.
Fighting Styles and Strengths
Morgan Charrière
- Dynamic Striking: Charrière is an aggressive striker with good power and a diverse arsenal of techniques, including strong leg kicks.
- Finishing Instinct: He actively seeks the knockout, with a high percentage of his wins coming by TKO/KO.
- Athleticism: Possesses good explosiveness and agility.
- Well-Rounded: Holds a black belt in Luta Livre and a purple belt in BJJ, showing he's not just a striker.
Nate Landwehr
- Relentless Pressure: "The Train" lives up to his name, constantly pushing forward and overwhelming opponents with volume.
- Durability: Has a strong chin and can absorb significant punishment.
- Iron Will: Known for his grit and ability to fight through adversity.
- Boxing: Primarily a boxing-heavy striker, often looking for brawls.
Recent Performances
Morgan Charrière
Charrière's UFC tenure has been a bit of a rollercoaster. He scored impressive TKO wins in his debut against Zecchini and then against Gabriel Miranda. However, he also has two decision losses against tough opposition in Chepe Mariscal (split decision) and Nathaniel Wood (unanimous decision). His recent loss to Wood in March 2025 highlighted some defensive vulnerabilities against a technical striker.
Nate Landwehr
Landwehr has been active, fighting five times since August 2022, with a 3-2 record in that span. He most recently suffered a TKO loss to Dooho Choi in December 2024. Prior to that, he earned a highlight-reel KO win over Jamall Emmers in March 2024. He has also secured submission wins in the UFC, showcasing an evolving ground game, but his preference remains standing and brawling.
Odds and Betting Information
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | +220 |
| Morgan Charrière | -280 |
Morgan Charrière is the clear favorite at -280, while Nate Landwehr is a significant underdog at +220.
Keys to Victory
Morgan Charrière
- Technical Striking: Use superior technique, footwork, and combinations to outland Landwehr and avoid getting drawn into a pure brawl.
- Leg Kicks: Target Landwehr's legs to slow down his relentless forward pressure.
- Defense: Be disciplined with defense and head movement to avoid Landwehr's looping punches.
- Counter-Striking: Capitalize on Landwehr's aggressive entries with sharp counters.
Nate Landwehr
- Unrelenting Pressure: Bring the signature "Train" pressure to Landwehr to force Charrière to fight off his back foot.
- Volume: Throw high volume to overwhelm Charrière and potentially wear him down.
- Make it a Brawl: Turn the fight into a chaotic, gritty affair where his durability and heart can shine.
- Chain Grappling (Unexpected): While he prefers striking, an unexpected takedown attempt could catch Charrière off guard, though Charrière has good takedown defense.
Prediction
This is a classic striker vs. striker matchup, but with different approaches. Nate Landwehr is a brawler who thrives in chaotic, back-and-forth exchanges, relying on his toughness and volume. Morgan Charrière is more of a technically proficient striker with fight-ending power, who can also engage in exciting exchanges.
While Landwehr's durability and pressure are commendable, Charrière possesses the more refined striking and a diverse offensive game. Charrière's leg kicks could be a major weapon against Landwehr's forward pressure, and his ability to land clean, powerful shots should give him the edge in significant strikes. Landwehr's willingness to absorb punishment means he's often hit clean, which could be problematic against a finisher like Charrière.
Charrière's recent losses have been against higher-level, well-rounded opponents who could also mix in grappling effectively. Landwehr, while dangerous, typically relies on his striking. If Charrière can maintain composure, avoid getting drawn into a pure slugfest where both trade blow-for-blow, and pick his shots, he should be able to outpoint or even finish Landwehr.
The betting line reflects Charrière's technical superiority and higher upside. While Landwehr always has a chance due to his sheer grit and power, Charrière's more calculated aggression and varied striking should lead him to victory.
Prediction: Morgan Charrière via Unanimous Decision.
Best Bet: Morgan Charrière to win (-280). Charrière's superior striking technique, power, and ability to stay composed under pressure should be enough to overcome Landwehr's relentless, but often wild, approach.
Betting on MMA carries inherent risks. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not guarantee outcomes. Please bet responsibly. Odds are subject to change.
