UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo – Full Betting Preview

Event: May 3, 2025 – Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa
Broadcast: ESPN2 / ESPN+ (Prelims 7:00 PM ET, Main Card 10:00 PM ET)

The UFC’s first event in Iowa in 25 years features an action-packed card headlined by bantamweight contender Cory Sandhagen welcoming former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo to 135 lbs. In total, 14 fights span the main card and prelims. Below is a fight-by-fight betting guide with fighter profiles, moneyline odds analysis, predictions, and suggested bets for each matchup. A summary table of all recommended bets is provided at the end.

Main Card Preview

Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo — Bantamweight Main Event

Fighter Profiles: Cory “Sandman” Sandhagen (17-5) is a dynamic 5’11” striker with a 70″ reach and a switch-stance style. At 33, Sandhagen is ranked top-5 at bantamweight and known for his creative striking arsenal (flying knees, spinning attacks) and high output (about 5.0 significant strikes landed per minute). He has 7 wins by KO/TKO and 3 by submission, showing a 59% finish rate. Sandhagen has also rounded out his game with improved defensive wrestling in recent bouts. Deiveson “Deus da Guerra” Figueiredo (24-4-1), 37, is the former UFC flyweight champion moving up to bantamweight. Despite being only 5’5″ with a 68″ reach, the Brazilian brings explosive power and elite BJJ – he boasts 9 wins by KO/TKO and 9 by submission (75% of his victories by finish). Figueiredo’s flyweight run was defined by heavy hands, venomous guillotine chokes, and an iron chin, but he now faces a larger foe and the challenge of a higher weight class.

Odds & Analysis: Sandhagen is a heavy favorite around -500, while Figueiredo sits at +350 underdog. The odds reflect Sandhagen’s size (6-inch height advantage) and youth edge, as well as questions about how Figueiredo will perform at bantamweight after years of tough weight cuts at 125. Sandhagen’s volume striking and range management could pick apart the smaller Figueiredo over five rounds. Figueiredo’s power and submission threat are X-factors, but his lower output and age (coming off a layoff since early 2023) make an upset difficult. At -500, Sandhagen’s moneyline carries little value except as a parlay anchor. Figueiredo’s +350 payout is tempting given his championship pedigree, but bettors should be cautious – he would likely need a knockout or multiple knockdowns to sway a decision, which is a tall order against the elusive Sandhagen.

Prediction: Sandhagen’s pace and reach should dictate the fight. Figueiredo is notoriously tough, so a finish is not guaranteed, but as the fight wears on the speed and cardio favor Sandhagen. The most likely outcome is Cory Sandhagen by decision, using his jab, movement, and length to accumulate points while avoiding Figueiredo’s power shots.

Best Bets:

• Cory Sandhagen to Win (no value at -500; consider in parlays)

• Sandhagen by Decision – Sandhagen’s volume could earn a clear decision (+120 range) given Figueiredo’s durability.

• Over 3.5 Rounds – Figueiredo has only been stopped once (doctor’s stoppage), and Sandhagen may opt for a measured approach in a five-rounder.

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Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal — Middleweight

Fighter Profiles: Reinier “The Dutch Knight” de Ridder (19-2) is a 6’4” Dutch grappling ace, formerly a two-division champion in ONE Championship. At 34, de Ridder has an outstanding submission game – 13 of his wins are by submission – favoring chokes like the rear-naked and guillotine. He’s also competent on the feet with 4 KO wins, but his bread-and-butter is dragging opponents down and hunting for submissions. De Ridder is making his UFC debut after a successful career overseas, though he was knocked out in late 2022, showing he’s not invincible. Bo Nickal (7-0) is one of the UFC’s hottest prospects. The 29-year-old American is a three-time NCAA Division I wrestling champion with an evolving MMA skill set. Nickal is 6’1” with a powerful build, and he’s finished all 7 of his fights (5 by KO/TKO, 2 by submission), usually in the first round. He’s shown explosive double-leg takedowns and heavy ground-and-pound, and even flashed striking power in his last bout. This fight pits de Ridder’s high-level jiu-jitsu against Nickal’s elite wrestling and youthful athleticism.

Odds & Analysis: Bo Nickal is the -250 favorite, with de Ridder a +200 underdog. The line indicates confidence in Nickal’s upside and wrestling advantage. If Nickal can dictate top position, his suffocating pressure and strength could neutralize de Ridder’s submission game. However, de Ridder is by far the most accomplished grappler Nickal has faced – if the fight hits the mat, de Ridder’s BJJ could test Nickal, especially if Nickal gets over-aggressive. On the feet, Nickal has a speed and power edge, while de Ridder’s striking is serviceable but not standout. There is some underdog value on de Ridder given his experience and well-rounded game; if he survives the early storm, his cardio and veteran savvy might create opportunities. That said, Nickal’s forward pressure and takedowns have been overwhelming so far. The matchup is likely to be decided in grappling exchanges – Nickal’s top game versus de Ridder’s guard and scramble ability.

Prediction: Bo Nickal’s youth and wrestling pedigree should carry him here. Expect Nickal to shoot early and often, keeping de Ridder on the defensive. De Ridder will threaten with guillotines or sweeps, but Nickal’s positional awareness and athleticism should help him avoid getting caught. On the feet, Nickal lands the more impactful shots. The pick is Bo Nickal to win, likely by TKO in the first or second round via ground-and-pound (Nickal’s power could overwhelm de Ridder once on top).

Best Bets:

• Bo Nickal to Win (-250) – Reasonable for parlay inclusion given his wrestling edge.

• Nickal by KO/TKO – Nickal’s ground strikes could finish it (+150 to +200 range). He may prefer to pound out de Ridder rather than risk staying in submissions.

• Under 2.5 Rounds – Both men are finishers. Nickal’s fights rarely reach round 2; de Ridder has also seen many early finishes. A quick finish either way is plausible.

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Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez — Welterweight

Fighter Profiles: Santiago “Argentine Dagger” Ponzinibbio (31-8) is a seasoned 38-year-old Argentine striker known for his ferocious kickboxing. A black belt in BJJ as well, Ponzinibbio prefers to trade punches and leg kicks; 17 of his 31 wins are by KO/TKO. He was once on a seven-fight win streak in the UFC, but post-2018 injuries slowed his momentum. Ponzinibbio still carries fight-ending power in his hands and throws a high volume of strikes, though his chin and quickness have shown some wear (he’s 2-4 in his last 6, including a couple of split-decision losses). Daniel “D-Rod” Rodriguez (18-5), 36, is a pressure boxer out of Los Angeles with a 6’1” frame and a 74″ reach. Rodriguez is a southpaw known for crisp boxing combinations and toughness. He has 8 KO victories and 4 submissions on his record, and notable UFC wins over Kevin Lee and Li Jingliang. D-Rod’s output (over 7 significant strikes landed per minute) and iron chin have served him well, but he’s coming off back-to-back losses – submitted by Neil Magny and knocked out by Ian Garry – which raises questions about momentum. This matchup promises a striking battle between two heavy hitters.

Odds & Analysis: The odds are close to pick’em, with Rodriguez around -130 and Ponzinibbio roughly +110. Rodriguez is a slight favorite likely due to his recent activity and a stylistic edge in a boxing match; he’s a bit younger and slightly longer. Both men prefer stand-up, so expect a technical slugfest. Ponzinibbio’s kicks (especially calf kicks) could be a key weapon to slow Rodriguez’s forward movement. Rodriguez, on the other hand, will look to pump his jab and straight left to pierce Ponzinibbio’s defense. Cardio-wise, both can go three rounds at a high pace. The betting value might lean toward Ponzinibbio as a minor underdog – he has more tools (kicks, experience in long fights) and Rodriguez is coming off a knockout loss only a year ago. However, Ponzinibbio has been in many wars and has shown susceptibility to sharp boxers recently. It’s a tough fight to call, so bettors might prefer props like the over/decision instead of a side.

Prediction: In what should be a closely contested striking match, Daniel Rodriguez by decision is the pick. He tends to land with higher accuracy and could edge the volume in a boxing-centric fight. Ponzinibbio will have moments, especially with leg kicks and bursts of punches, but Rodriguez’s consistency and counterpunching may earn him at least two of the three rounds. A late knockout by either man is possible given their power, but both are historically durable, so a full 15 minutes is slightly more likely.

Best Bets:

• Fight to Go the Distance – Both men are durable and skilled defensively. A decision outcome is favored (over 2.5 rounds or Goes Distance at around -150 could be a solid play).

• Daniel Rodriguez by Decision – If you side with D-Rod, taking him by points can yield plus odds. He’s won many of his UFC fights via decision by outlanding opponents.

• Ponzinibbio +3.5 Points Handicap – For a safer approach on Ponzinibbio, some books offer a points handicap (essentially Ponzinibbio to win at least one round on the cards). This covers a close decision loss and could be valuable in a likely tight fight.

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Junior Tafa vs. “Tuco” George Tokkos — Light Heavyweight

Fighter Profiles: Junior “The Juggernaut” Tafa (6-3) is a 26-year-old Samoan-Australian striker making his light heavyweight debut. Tafa, a former professional kickboxer, has fought at heavyweight previously and all 6 of his wins have come by knockout. He’s a powerful 6’3″ fighter with explosive punches, kicks, and knees, and every victory has been a first- or second-round finish. Tafa’s weaknesses have been grappling and cardio; he was taken down and outpointed in some of his losses. Cutting to 205 lbs for the first time is a factor to watch, but if healthy, he’ll carry enormous power for the division. George “Tuco” Tokkos (10-5) is a 34-year-old English fighter training out of a top camp (Kill Cliff FC). He is also making his UFC debut. Tokkos is a more well-rounded mixed martial artist: he has 6 KO/TKO wins and 2 submissions in his 10 victories, showing he can finish in various ways. Standing 6’0″, Tokkos might be at a size disadvantage here, but he likely holds the edge in grappling. He’s on a two-fight skid coming in, so he’ll be hungry to prove himself. Expect Tokkos to mix in clinches or takedown attempts to avoid a pure striking firefight with Tafa.

Odds & Analysis: Junior Tafa is the favorite at roughly -180, with Tokkos an underdog around +140. The odds-makers respect Tafa’s 100% knockout rate – whenever he wins, he does it violently – and likely expect him to overwhelm Tokkos on the feet. Tokkos has been knocked out twice before, which is not a great sign against a slugger like Tafa. However, if Tokkos can weather the early storm or drag Tafa to the mat, the tide could turn. The question for bettors is whether Tokkos’ chin can hold up long enough to implement a grappling strategy. Tafa’s takedown defense is a bit of an unknown at 205, but at heavyweight he did struggle when pinned down. Tokkos by upset is not out of the question if this becomes a grinding fight. Still, given Tafa’s speed and striking pedigree, he’s rightly favored. The Under 1.5 rounds is likely juiced here, as a brawl early on is expected.

Prediction: The scenario that most stands out is Junior Tafa by first-round knockout. His hands are fast and heavy, and Tokkos has been hittable in past fights. Look for Tafa to use his reach and kickboxing to keep Tokkos at range, unload combinations, and catch Tokkos with something big in the opening round. If Tokkos survives into the second half of the fight, momentum swings in his favor, but the prediction is that Tafa gets it done early.

Best Bets:

• Junior Tafa to Win (-180) – Straight bet or parlay piece on the power puncher, as long as you trust he’ll find the chin.

• Tafa by KO/TKO – Since all Tafa’s wins are via KO, taking this method (approximately -120) is a logical way to improve the odds versus his moneyline.

• Under 1.5 Rounds – Both fighters are finishers. Tafa will force a firefight, and Tokkos has the ability to finish as well if he lands first. The under covers an early finish by either man.

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Montel Jackson vs. Daniel Marcos — Bantamweight

Fighter Profiles: Montel “Quik” Jackson (14-2) is a surging 30-year-old American bantamweight riding a five-fight win streak. Jackson is a tall 135er at 5’10” with a massive 75″ reach and incredible hand size (famously some of the largest hands measured in UFC). He’s a well-rounded fighter with a wrestling base and knockout power. Of his 14 wins, 8 are by KO/TKO – Montel has serious pop, evidenced by recent knockouts of JP Buys and Rani Yahya. He also has a strong grappling game (1 submission win, but many takedowns and dominant ground performances in decision wins). Jackson lands an average of 3.5 significant strikes per minute with precision and has shown good takedown defense. Daniel “Soncora” Marcos (17-0) is an undefeated Peruvian prospect, age 30, making waves in the bantamweight division. Marcos is a Muay Thai specialist with sharp striking and excellent distance management. He earned his UFC contract on DWCS and has since notched two UFC wins (including an upset of Davey Grant). Marcos’s record shows 8 wins by KO and 9 by decision – he can knock opponents out, but also is comfortable going the full 15 minutes without fading. He’s tough to takedown and has shown a solid chin and patience in striking exchanges. This fight is a big step up for Marcos against a ranked-caliber opponent in Jackson.

Odds & Analysis: Montel Jackson is the favorite at roughly -160, with Marcos as a +140 underdog. The odds respect Jackson’s UFC experience and finishing rate, but also acknowledge Marcos’s unbeaten run and striking acumen. This matchup likely plays out on the feet, as both have shown a penchant for striking (Jackson might mix in wrestling, but Marcos’ takedown defense will be tested). Jackson’s reach advantage (likely around 6 inches) could be a major factor – he’ll try to snipe Marcos from long range with his jab and straight left (Montel is a southpaw). Marcos, however, is very adept at leg kicks and counter-striking; he could chip away at Jackson’s base and look to land combos when Montel steps in. If Jackson decides to wrestle, he might find success given his physicality, but Marcos has yet to be outgrappled in his fights. From a betting perspective, Marcos at +140 is an intriguing live dog – undefeated fighters often have a level of confidence that can’t be quantified, and he’s faced and solved power punchers before. Still, Jackson’s combination of length, power, and wrestling option make him rightly favored. A decision is a strong possibility here, as both men are durable and defensively sound.

Prediction: This is a razor-close fight, but Montel Jackson by decision is a slight lean. He has more tools to win rounds – if striking is even, a timely takedown or two from Jackson could sway the judges. Marcos will likely have his moments with leg kicks and sharp counters, and it wouldn’t shock us if he keeps his streak alive, but until we see Jackson’s win streak snapped, we’ll side with him to edge out a competitive fight on the scorecards.

Best Bets:

• Over 2.5 Rounds (-180) – Both bantamweights are skilled defensively and have gone to decision in several wins. A three-round technical striking match could easily go the distance.

• Fight Goes to Decision – Similar logic to the over; if you don’t want to pick a side, betting on neither man getting finished (~ -150 odds) is reasonable given their durability.

• Montel Jackson to Win (-160) – A modest favorite, Montel could be a good straight bet if you believe his experience and reach will be the deciding factor. If you’re leaning his way, consider pairing in a parlay or look for Jackson by Points for plus money.

• Daniel Marcos by Decision (long shot) – As an underdog play, Marcos by decision (around +200 or more) has value. If he keeps the fight standing and out-strikes Jackson slightly each round, he could sneak a split decision.

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Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones — Lightweight

Fighter Profiles: Jeremy “Lil’ Heathen” Stephens (29-21, 1 NC) is a name longtime UFC fans know well. The 38-year-old American has over 50 pro fights and was once a feared knockout artist at featherweight/lightweight. Stephens is aggressive with powerful hooks and uppercuts – he has 19 career KO/TKO wins – and holds highlight-reel knockouts in his resume. However, he hasn’t won a fight in the UFC since 2018; after a five-fight skid, he left for PFL in 2022 where he went 1-2. Stephens still carries power but age, mileage, and a declining chin (he’s been stopped by strikes multiple times in recent years) are concerns. He returns to the UFC here, likely fighting for his career. Mason “The Dragon” Jones (15-2, 1 NC) is a 28-year-old from Wales and a former Cage Warriors two-division champion. Jones is a well-rounded fighter with a high pace. In Cage Warriors, he finished a majority of his fights (7 KO, 3 SUB wins) and showed a granite chin and cardio. In the UFC, Jones went 1-2 with 1 No Contest in his initial stint (his lone win a decision over David Onama). He left UFC briefly but has since earned two wins outside and now returns. Jones is a pressure fighter who can do damage both standing and with his grappling; he’s known for his volume punching and durability. Against Stephens, Jones will have youth and speed on his side, plus a more varied skillset at this point.

Odds & Analysis: Mason Jones comes in as a sizable favorite around -450, while Stephens is +330. The odds reflect the trajectory of each fighter: Jones is on the rise again, and Stephens appears far past his prime. At lightweight, Stephens may also be undersized (he spent a lot of career at 145). Jones is expected to push a hard pace that Stephens might struggle to keep up with. The key for Stephens will be landing a fight-ending bomb early – he still has the power to flatten anyone if he connects clean. Jones, however, has never been knocked out and has shown he can take a punch. If the fight goes past a round, Jones’ pressure and diversity (mixing in clinch, elbows, maybe takedowns) should overwhelm Stephens. Betting-wise, laying -450 on Jones isn’t enticing straight up. You’d have to consider props: perhaps Jones Inside the Distance or by KO, given Stephens’ recent vulnerability. Alternatively, some might take a flier on Stephens’ puncher’s chance at +330 – a small stab in case the vet turns back the clock with a haymaker.

Prediction: It’s hard to see a path for the aging Stephens outside of a lucky punch. The most likely outcome is Mason Jones wins by TKO in the mid rounds. Jones can engage Stephens in a brawl but with a better gas tank. Look for Jones to pour on volume – knees, elbows, combinations – and possibly hurt Stephens by round 2. Stephens is as tough as they come, but we suspect the referee or doctor could stop the fight if he’s taking too much damage. If not a TKO, Jones by wide decision with Stephens worn out by the end is the fallback. Either way, the younger fighter should prevail.

Best Bets:

• Mason Jones by KO/TKO – There’s value in picking Jones to finish, perhaps around even money. Stephens has been knocked out or stopped due to strikes several times recently, and Jones throws with high volume.

• Under 2.5 Rounds – If you anticipate Stephens to either land his bomb or get overwhelmed early, the under covers an early finish either way. Despite Jones not having a UFC finish yet, the style matchup leans early finish.

• Stephens by KO (+3300) – For thrill-seekers, Stephens’ one realistic path is a knockout. The odds for Stephens by KO will be extremely high (possibly in the +500 to +600 range for method, and his moneyline itself is +330). If you believe in the “puncher’s chance,” that’s the only way to play Jeremy.

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Preliminary Card Preview

Yana Santos vs. Miesha Tate — Women’s Bantamweight

Fighter Profiles: Yana Santos (15-8, 1 NC), formerly Yana Kunitskaya, is a 33-year-old striker from Russia. She’s a former title challenger (fought Cris Cyborg in 2018) and is primarily known for her Muay Thai clinch game and kickboxing. Of her 15 wins, 7 are by KO/TKO. Yana likes to pressure against the fence, use knees and elbows, and grind on opponents. However, she’s 1-3 in her last 4 and coming off a decision loss. Her takedown defense can be a liability against strong grapplers. Miesha “Cupcake” Tate (20-9) is a 37-year-old former UFC bantamweight champion. Tate is a wrestler/grappler who has 8 submission victories in her career. She’s famous for her comeback submission win over Holly Holm to capture the title in 2016. After a brief retirement, Tate returned in 2021 and is 1-2 since her comeback, most recently losing decisions to Ketlen Vieira and Lauren Murphy. Tate’s strengths are her wrestling, top control, and resilience. On the feet she’s serviceable but will likely be at a disadvantage against Yana’s striking. This fight is pivotal for both women to remain relevant at 135 lbs.

Odds & Analysis: The odds are essentially a pick’em (-110 each), reflecting an evenly matched bout. Yana Santos’ striking vs. Miesha Tate’s grappling is the classic striker-grappler matchup. Tate likely will try to close distance quickly, get clinches or shots, and put Yana on her back. Santos will want to stuff takedowns and make this a stand-up affair, where she can use her 3-inch height advantage and possibly faster hands. One factor is Tate’s fight IQ and experience – she’s fought far higher caliber opponents historically. If Tate can recapture some of her old form, her wrestling could indeed dictate the fight. It’s worth noting Yana has been finished by strikes in 3 of her 8 losses (she’s been caught by heavy hitters like Cyborg and Irene Aldana), and Tate, while not a KO artist, can mount damage on the ground. Conversely, Tate has been outstruck badly in some recent fights; if she can’t get Santos down, she might eat a lot of knees and punches. From a betting perspective, this might be a fight to tread lightly on. Slight lean could go to Tate at -110 simply because she has more pathways to win (wrestling and ground control or even a submission), whereas Yana likely must win via decision by outpointing Tate standing.

Prediction: In a close one, the pick is Miesha Tate by decision. We expect Tate to use her veteran savvy to mix in clinches and takedowns in at least two of the rounds. Santos may start strong with striking, but Tate’s persistence and cardio can turn it into a grind, which favors her style. It might not be the prettiest fight, but Tate could scrape by with control time and some ground-and-pound, earning a 29-28 on the cards.

Best Bets:

• Fight Goes the Distance (-200) – Neither woman is a proven finisher at this stage. A three-round decision is likely, as Tate isn’t a big KO threat and Santos would need accumulation to finish Tate.

• Miesha Tate Moneyline (-110) – With odds near even, backing the former champ’s wrestling ability is reasonable. She’s shown she can still go the distance and win rounds via grappling in her comeback fight against Reneau.

• Tate by Decision (+150) – If you’re confident Tate will implement her gameplan, take the method for better odds. Most of Tate’s wins (8 of 20) are by decision, and at 37, volume grappling for a decision is the safest bet for her.

• Live Betting Angle: If Santos clearly stuffs early takedowns and is tagging Tate, a live bet on Yana could be prudent. Her striking advantage will manifest early if at all, whereas Tate’s success will come gradually through control.

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Cameron Smotherman vs. Serhiy Sidey — Bantamweight

Fighter Profiles: Cameron “The Baby-Faced Killer” Smotherman (12-4) is a 25-year-old American making his UFC debut. He’s an aggressive striker out of Houston, known for engaging in brawls on the regional scene (Fury FC). Smotherman stands 5’9″ and often pushes a high pace with wild combinations and knockout power – he has a number of TKO wins regionally. He’s currently on a 4-fight win streak, showing improvements in fight IQ to go with his natural aggression. Serhiy Sidey (11-2) is a 27-year-old bantamweight from Canada (of Ukrainian heritage), also debuting in the UFC. Sidey earned a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series with a first-round TKO. He’s a well-rounded fighter but his striking is his standout skill – he’s tall for the weight (5’11”) and uses straight punches and kicks effectively. Sidey’s record includes 5 knockout wins. He did have a UFC fight earlier this year (as a late replacement at UFC 297) where he lost a razor-thin split decision, so he has tasted UFC-level competition. Both Smotherman and Sidey are finish-seekers, which could make for a fan-friendly scrap.

Odds & Analysis: Serhiy Sidey is a slight favorite at around -140, with Smotherman at +120. The betting market gives Sidey a small edge, likely due to his Contender Series performance and a perceived technical advantage. Sidey’s reach and height could pose issues for Smotherman if this becomes a kickboxing match from distance. Smotherman, however, will try to turn it into a firefight in the pocket where his looping punches and power can land. One intangible: Octagon jitters. Both are newcomers, but Sidey has fought once under the UFC lights, which might ease his nerves. If Sidey stays composed and sticks to straight punches, he could pick apart Smotherman’s defense, which has been leaky at times. Smotherman’s path is to force Sidey into a brawl and test the Canadian’s chin. Cardio-wise, both are young and should have no issues keeping a high pace. Bettors might find value in the Under 2.5 rounds here, expecting someone to get hurt given the aggressive nature of both men. It’s also a closely lined fight, so picking a dog like Smotherman at plus money is not unreasonable if you believe his style will overwhelm Sidey.

Prediction: The lean goes to Serhiy Sidey via 2nd Round TKO. Early on, Smotherman will likely blitz, and Sidey’s task is to survive the storm and counter with straight, accurate shots. We envision Sidey landing a precise right hand or head kick on an onrushing Smotherman as the fight progresses, rocking him and finishing with follow-ups. If the fight goes to the ground at all, Sidey also might have an edge (he has a couple of submissions in his past), but this should primarily be a striking contest. It’s a precarious pick because Smotherman absolutely has the power to flip the script, but Sidey’s slight technical edge and reach advantage tilt it in his favor.

Best Bets:

• Under 2.5 Rounds (+100) – At near even money, the under is appealing. These bantamweights throw with bad intentions. Smotherman, in particular, either secures a finish or leaves openings to be finished.

• Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance – Similar to the under; you get coverage even if it ends late in Round 3. The pace and power here could easily result in a stoppage.

• Serhiy Sidey Moneyline (-140) – For a modest favorite, Sidey backers can play him straight if confident he’ll weather Smotherman’s attack and land the cleaner shots.

• Smotherman by KO (+250) – If you like the underdog, consider his most likely win condition: a knockout. Smotherman isn’t known for winning decisions; it’s his power that got him here. At roughly +250 (or higher) for a KO, it’s a juicy prop for his supporters.

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Trevor Peek vs. JeongYeong Lee — Featherweight

Fighter Profiles: Trevor Peek (9-3) is a 30-year-old American dropping down to featherweight for the first time. Peek is an absolute wild man in the cage – he garnered attention for his brawling style and unorthodox striking (he’ll throw punches from his hips, hammerfists standing, etc.). All 9 of Peek’s wins have come via knockout, typically in all-out slugfests. He’s as tough as they come but that fearless style led to some recent setbacks: he’s lost his last two fights, showing that more technical fighters can exploit his defensive lapses. Still, if Peek lands flush, he can put anyone out. JeongYeong “Korean Tiger” Lee (11-2) is a 28-year-old South Korean prospect making his UFC debut. Lee won the Road to UFC tournament at featherweight, showcasing a well-rounded game. He has 4 KO wins and 3 submission wins, making him a dual threat. Lee fights with a lot of flair and explosiveness – spinning attacks, flying knees – but also has solid fundamentals and grappling when needed. Notably, Lee is moving down from his Road to UFC weight of 145; oh wait, this fight is at featherweight (145) as well, so Lee is at his natural class while Peek is the one moving down from 155. Lee will likely be the faster, more technical fighter here.

Odds & Analysis: JeongYeong Lee is expected to be the favorite (roughly -200 range) with Peek as a +160 underdog. Style-wise, it’s easy to understand the odds: Lee has far more tools and fight IQ, whereas Peek is a proverbial puncher’s chance personified. One big question is how Peek’s power and chin hold up at 145 after a weight cut – if the cut is tough, it could diminish his cardio and durability, which are key assets for his brawling approach. Lee should look to use angles, pick Peek apart with straight punches and kicks, and potentially mix in a takedown if Peek swings wildly. Peek’s best chance is to turn it into a phone-booth fight immediately and hope to catch Lee in an exchange. Lee has been finished once by strikes early in his career, so he’s not immune to being clipped. From a betting standpoint, if you believe in technique, Lee by finish (perhaps submission) is attractive since Peek often leaves himself open and Lee might capitalize on a hurt or gassed Peek. Conversely, those who fancy chaos might sprinkle Peek by KO at a high payoff because any flush shot he lands could end the fight. The under 1.5 rounds is another angle – Peek’s fights rarely see the final horn, and this matchup has the feel of a quick finish either way.

Prediction: The sensible pick is JeongYeong Lee by submission in Round 1 or 2. We expect Lee to stun Peek with a sharp counter or head kick, then, as Peek reels, Lee could lock up a choke (Peek has been susceptible on the ground). Alternatively, Lee could just TKO him with volume. Either way, Lee’s superior technique should prevail over Peek’s chaos more often than not. Peek will make it exciting for however long it lasts, but unless he catches Lee early, it’s likely to be Lee’s victory.

Best Bets:

• Fight Under 1.5 Rounds (-150) – Peek only knows one speed: full throttle. That often results in someone going down in the first five to seven minutes. Lee is also an aggressive finisher. This covers an early win by either man.

• Lee by Finish (Inside the Distance) – Combining Lee’s KO or SUB into one bet yields better odds than his moneyline. Given Peek’s defensive holes, Lee has a good chance to finish.

• Peek by KO (+200 to +250) – If you’re backing the underdog, do it via his knockout power. Peek is unlikely to win a decision or by submission. A small bet on his KO prop could yield a nice return if he lands that hail Mary.

• Live Bet After Round 1: If somehow this fight reaches round 2 and Peek is still standing but looking exhausted, consider live-betting Lee (even at a steep price) as his chances skyrocket the longer it goes.

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Thomas Petersen vs. Don’Tale Mayes — Heavyweight

Fighter Profiles: Thomas “The Train” Petersen (9-3) is a 28-year-old American heavyweight and a former LFA champion known for ferocious knockout power. Petersen has 7 KO/TKOs in his 9 wins, many of which came in the first round. He’s compact at 6’0″ but carries a lot of muscle and explosiveness. Petersen will sprint out of the gate with big overhand rights and hooks, looking to flatten opponents early. His aggression can be a double-edged sword: he either steamrolls his foe or, as seen in recent fights, he can get caught himself (he’s coming off a brutal KO loss just a few months ago in his UFC debut). Don’Tale “Lord Kong” Mayes (11-8) is a 31-year-old American heavyweight with a 6’6″ frame and an 81″ reach. Mayes is a UFC veteran, having fought multiple times in the promotion with mixed results. He’s athletic for his size and has decent Muay Thai — 5 of his wins are by KO, often via knees or punches in close. Mayes also has some wrestling, and we’ve seen him attempt takedowns or clinch control in fights. However, consistency has plagued Mayes; he’s alternated wins and losses and sometimes doesn’t use his physical advantages aggressively. Mayes is coming off a loss, and at 11-8, he’s fighting to prove he belongs in the division.

Odds & Analysis: Despite Petersen’s recent setback, he is actually the favorite here at around -250, with Mayes an underdog near +200. Oddsmakers are likely high on Petersen’s upside and Mayes’ underwhelming track record. Early in the fight, Petersen’s power and hand speed will be a real threat to Mayes. Mayes has been knocked out before (Ciryl Gane submitted then TKO’d him; Tai Tuivasa KO’d him as well), so his chin isn’t bulletproof. If Mayes can survive the initial blitz, his huge reach and experience could start to take over. He might use his jab and kicks at distance or lean on Petersen in the clinch to wear him out. Bettors might find Mayes as a live dog worth a look – heavyweight fights can swing on one punch, and Mayes has massive physical advantages. That said, the motivation and killer instinct often seem lacking in Mayes, whereas Petersen will surely come out firing to erase the memory of his last loss. The safest play might be the fight doesn’t go the distance prop, as heavyweight bouts with this dynamic (one explosive puncher and one big man with questionable urgency) tend to end inside of 3 rounds one way or another.

Prediction: Thomas Petersen by KO in Round 1 is the pick. It’s hard to trust Don’Tale Mayes to use his range effectively for long. Petersen likely knows this is his make-or-break moment and will unload heavy shots from the opening bell. Mayes could very well fall into a brawl, and in a firefight, Petersen’s tighter, faster punches should find the target before Mayes’ longer strikes. Look for Petersen to possibly slip inside a lazy jab and uncork a right hand that drops Mayes early. If that doesn’t happen, Mayes could turn it around late, but our bet is the younger Petersen lands the kill-shot and possibly earns a Performance bonus with a highlight finish.

Best Bets:

• Petersen by KO/TKO (-140) – Given Petersen’s all-or-nothing KO style, if you favor him, take him by knockout instead of the heavy -250 moneyline. It’s his most likely path to victory and boosts the odds significantly.

• Under 1.5 Rounds (-130) – Petersen’s last 8 fights have all ended in the first round. Mayes often sees round 2 or 3, but if Petersen has his way, it won’t last that long. The under covers an early blowout by either man (Mayes could also theoretically clip Petersen).

• Don’Tale Mayes +200 (Dog Value) – For those who think Petersen’s recent KO loss and one-dimensional style make him vulnerable, Mayes at 2-to-1 is a value bet. He’s much taller and if he fights smart, he can pick Petersen apart from range or drag it deep. It’s a risky play, but heavyweight underdogs often cash when the favorite can’t secure the early finish.

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Marina Rodriguez vs. Gillian Robertson — Women’s Strawweight

Fighter Profiles: Marina Rodriguez (17-5-2) is a 38-year-old Brazilian striker and former top-5 contender at strawweight. She’s an Muay Thai specialist with excellent boxing and devastating elbows and knees in the clinch. Rodriguez has 7 wins by KO/TKO, which is high for the strawweight division, and she’s known for peppering opponents with combinations and maintaining a high striking output. However, Marina has struggled against grapplers – her takedown defense is a known weakness. She’s on a two-fight skid, having been finished by Amanda Lemos (TKO) and then decisioned by Virna Jandiroba, where she was controlled on the mat. Gillian “The Savage” Robertson (15-8) is a 30-year-old Canadian submission specialist. Robertson holds the record for most submissions in UFC women’s history (7 and counting). A BJJ black belt, she is lethal if she gets on top, with rear-naked chokes and armbar finishes on her résumé. Gillian recently dropped to 115 lbs from flyweight and has looked strong at strawweight – she scored a submission win over Piera Rodriguez and went 1-1 in 2024, showing improved striking in spurts but still clearly preferring the ground. On the feet, Robertson is at a significant disadvantage against Marina, but she will relentlessly pursue takedowns (often pulling guard or rolling for legs if needed).

Odds & Analysis: Gillian Robertson is actually the favorite at approximately -250, with Rodriguez a +200 underdog. This line might surprise some given Marina’s pedigree, but styles make fights: Robertson’s strength directly targets Rodriguez’s weakness. If Robertson can secure even one takedown each round, she could steal the fight by either riding out top control or finding a submission. Marina’s mission will be to keep it standing at all costs. If she can, she likely pieces up Gillian with far superior striking – Robertson has been outstruck by lesser strikers than Marina in the past. But oddsmakers (and many bettors) are doubtful Marina can stuff the takedowns after what we saw against Jandiroba (who, like Robertson, is a grappler). The betting question is: can Marina land a fight-ending blow before being dragged down? She does have KO power (ask Amanda Ribas or Danielle Taylor), so Robertson must be careful closing distance. If one leans Marina, the +200 is tempting for a proven fighter who could potentially win by KO. If one leans Robertson, perhaps consider her Inside the Distance, since it’s likely via submission if she wins (though a grindy decision is possible). This fight could be one-way traffic in either direction depending on who executes.

Prediction: Gillian Robertson by Submission in Round 1 or 2 is the call. We anticipate Robertson will waste no time shooting takedowns or pulling guard. Marina’s takedown defense and grappling awareness haven’t shown enough improvement to trust at this point. Once Robertson gets a hold of Marina, it’s likely going to the mat, and from there Robertson’s grappling prowess takes over. Marina’s only submission loss in MMA was early in her career, but she was repeatedly mounted and controlled by grapplers recently, so the submission is a logical next step. Robertson could latch onto a rear-naked choke after taking the back in a scramble. For Marina to win, she’d need to keep distance and tee off for potentially a KO; that’s certainly possible if the fight stays upright. It all comes down to grappling, and we’ll side with the specialist: Robertson catches Marina in a choke.

Best Bets:

• Gillian Robertson to Win (-250) – While a bit chalky, Robertson is a strong parlay candidate given the stylistic edge. Straight bets might be heavy, so consider tying her to another favorite in a parlay.

• Robertson by Submission (+ odds) – Instead of the steep moneyline, take Robertson by sub at plus money (likely around +100 to +150). Submissions are Gillian’s wheelhouse and Marina has shown little ability to escape bad positions on the ground.

• Marina Rodriguez by KO/TKO (+400) – If you’re skeptical of Robertson or think Marina can replicate Amanda Lemos’s success, Marina by knockout is the value path. Gillian has been stopped by strikes before (ground-and-pound from Barber). Marina hits hard and could capitalize if Robertson’s entries are sloppy.

• Under 2.5 Rounds – This might be a surprisingly finish-friendly fight. Marina’s last few fights had finishes, and Robertson is a finisher. At strawweight the under is often plus money; it might be worth a sprinkle expecting one woman to definitively impose her will.

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Ryan Loder vs. Azamat Bekoev — Middleweight

Fighter Profiles: Ryan Loder (8-1) is a 33-year-old American wrestler making his UFC debut. Loder was a standout collegiate wrestler (an All-American at University of Northern Iowa), so he has deep Iowa roots which explain his placement on this Des Moines card. As an MMA fighter, Loder has transitioned his wrestling into solid top control and ground-and-pound – 3 of his 8 wins are by KO/TKO. He’s also secured a couple of submissions, usually after softening opponents up. Loder’s striking is still developing; he typically uses punches mainly to set up his takedowns. Azamat “Iron” Bekoev (19-3) is a 29-year-old Russian fighter who already fought (and won) in the UFC once. Bekoev is a former LFA middleweight champion and has a very impressive resume. He’s a sambo-based fighter with a balanced skill set: in his 19 wins, he has around 6 by KO and 9 by submission. Bekoev made a splash with a first-round knockout in his UFC debut earlier this year. At 6’0″ with a stocky build, Bekoev is strong in the clinch, has dangerous judo/Sambo throws, and vicious ground-and-pound. On the feet, he carries knockout power and throws looping but heavy hooks. Essentially, Bekoev is the more seasoned mixed martial artist, whereas Loder is the raw wrestler.

Odds & Analysis: Azamat Bekoev is a solid favorite at roughly -230, with Loder a +180 underdog. Loder’s wrestling pedigree is respected, but Bekoev’s vast experience and finishing ability make him the clear favorite. For Loder to win, he likely needs to repeatedly take Bekoev down and keep him there without getting swept or submitted. That’s a tall task because Bekoev has excellent grappling himself – if taken down, he has submissions off his back and the ability to scramble up. On the feet, Bekoev hits harder and is more comfortable exchanging. Loder may have a slight edge in pure wrestling, but MMA grappling is different, and Bekoev’s Sambo background has prepared him to handle wrestlers (he’s fought and tapped wrestlers before). From a betting standpoint, it might be dog-or-pass if you have a hunch about Loder’s hometown momentum and grind-out style; otherwise, Bekoev as a favorite can be parlayed or taken by finish for better odds. One interesting angle: Bekoev inside the distance. He seldom goes to decision, and if Loder overextends on a shot, Bekoev could latch onto a neck or