UFC Columbus: Blaydes vs. Daukaus - Predictions and Picks for Every Fight, March 26

UFC Columbus: Blaydes vs. Daukaus - Predictions and Picks for Every Fight, March 26

Credit: photo by Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

 
March 26, 2022: Nationwide Arena, Columbus, Ohio
 
Kingpin's two staff writers predict the winners for every matchup for UFC Columbus: Blaydes vs. Daukaus and provide a preview for each fight.

 

Main Event: Curtis Blaydes vs. Chris Daukaus (Heavyweight)
Jackson: Blaydes

Quite frankly, I think that save for a freak KO like the one against Derrick Lewis, Blaydes should absolutely have his way with Daukaus in this matchup. He's way bigger and stronger than the LHW-HW hybrid that is Daukaus, which should result in takedown after takedown and likely an eventual KO/TKO. Daukaus could have a slide edge in the standup, and will definitely have a handspeed/power advantage, but I don't expect the fight to take place there for long. A potential x-factor in this fight is Daukaus' alleged BJJ blackbelt, which he could use to grab a neck on the ground. However, we've never really seen it in use, and not many submissions from the bottom happen at heavyweight anyway. I think Daukaus really only has a puncher's chance in this one, and Blaydes should roll with the wrestling. 

Brandon: Blaydes

I'm really not sure what the UFC's plan is with Chris Daukaus, but this feels like another mistake. I've been bearish on Daukaus for a while now, and the UFC rushed him into a main event with Derrick Lewis that he simply was not ready for. Prior to this, we had never really seen Daukaus tested, nor use his supposed BJJ Black Belt. And while it may benefit him against a wrestler like Blaydes, I don't think it will matter - Blaydes is simply way stronger and way bigger than Daukaus. I'm interested to see what Chris weighs in at, but it won't change the fact that Blaydes is going to flatten him out and attack him with violent ground and pound. Daukaus suffers another KO loss here, and the UFC re-evaluates their plan for him.

 

Co-Main Event: Joanne Wood vs. Alexa Grasso (Women's Flyweight)
Jackson: Grasso

At this point in her career, I just can't get behind JoJo. Granted, her last fight was against the most physically imposing fighter in the division, but she just seems washed and weak these days. Sure, she throws lots of volume, but none of her shots really do any damage, and she's not the strongest wrestler. Grasso is low output, which could make this fight dicey, but she is strong, will land the more damaging and effective shots, and could probably work in the grappling if she really wanted to. At 28, she's really starting to come into her own, and I expect her to walk through JoJo's shots, and land clean and powerful combinations. Honestly, I could see her winning by KO, submission, or decision, but going to the scorecards is probably the most likely. 

Brandon: Grasso

I'm not as confident as the line suggests here, as Wood has fought the best of the best and gotten some wins. Her wrestling is fine, and her striking is high volume but not dangerous. Grasso really impressed me with her fight IQ and counter-striking in her last fight out, and I think she is going to land the much more significant strikes here. She's faster and younger as well, and if she turns up the output she will get it done easily, but if not I still expect a close win.

 

Matt Brown vs. Bryan Barberena (Welterweight)
Jackson: Brown

As long as the Immortal has enough gas for 2 rounds, I'm confident he gets the job in this one. He'll have a significant wrestling, power, and technical striking advantage over Barberena. At this point in his career, Bryan Barberena is a washed fighter that only has volume, and is an absolute liability with his takedown defense. Matt Brown could knock Barberena out, could wet blanket him with the wrestling, or just land the better strikes for 2 rounds. He is 41 years old, which means he could gas out and his chin could be cracked, but I'm not confident Barberena is a strong enough fighter to exploit those weaknesses. He's been barely beating the absolute bottom of the division, and I think Brown has some left in the tank.

Brandon: Brown

Both fighters could be washed, but they also may be better than I'm expecting. Either way, Barberena always ends up in Brawls, and I expect this to be no different. Brown should try to use his wrestling here as Barberena can't defend against it, but even if he doesn't, I think The Immortal will look to put on a show in front of his home crowd and show the world he still has gas in the tank. Brown still has knockout power, and Barberena has been knocked out before. It's possible we see a finish, but I'm expecting a 15-minute brawl in Ohio.

 

Askar Askarov vs. Kai Kara-France (Flyweight)
Jackson: Askarov

Despite the great run that Kai Kara-France is on, I can't go against Askarov in this one. He's undefeated, has beaten Pantoja, and has drawn with the former champ Brandon Moreno. He's got a wrestling advantage, which I expect him to use in this matchup against Kara-France, which is the weakest part of his game. Kai Kara-France is probably the biggest power puncher in the division, but at 125, still most fights go to decision. In that case, I want the wrestler, more well-rounded fighter overall, and the guy that has fought and succeeded against the better competition in Askarov.

Brandon: Askarov

Askar has all the tools to be a champion, and I think he matches up great against Figueiredo. We will have to wait until the Moreno Quadrilogy (?) is complete, but I think he's ready. He has great wrestling and submissions and can avoid the power of Kai for long enough, especially while he has the kickboxer on his back.

 

Ilir Latifi vs. Aleksei Oleinik (Heavyweight)
Jackson: Latifi

A common theme throughout this card, I just can't back Oleinik at this point in his career. Honestly, this isn't a bad matchup for him on paper, as Latifi probably won't knock him out on the feet, and will play right into his domain on the mat. However, at almost 45 years old and having not won a fight in almost 2 years, Oleinik is not a UFC caliber fighter anymore. But, besides the fade of Oleinik, I like Latifi in this matchup. He shouldn't have a hard time getting old man Oleinik to the ground, and he's never been submitted before (it's hard to choke a man with no neck). Honestly, Latifi could wet blanket Oleinik for 15 minutes, or the Sledgehammer could turn up the ground and pound and pound the Boa Constrictor into oblivion here. I like Latifi considerably in this matchup.

Brandon: Oleinik

Yeah, I know. This is certainly the first time I have ever taken a 44 year old fighter, and almost certainly will be the last (fingers crossed). However, Latifi is not exactly a spring chicken himself, and I'm not going to sugar coat it - this is going to be an awful fight. Aleksei has three main disadvantages: his chin, his striking, and his cardio. Latifi will outclass him in these areas, but where I see the fight ending is on the ground, where the Boa Constrictor will look to record his 47th professional submission. Latifi has a large reach disadvantage and a very low center of gravity, which may lead him to attempt takedowns. If he does, Oleinik is still as dangerous as ever from the bottom. Latifi isn't a world-beater with his striking and power, and I expect Oleinik to avoid being knocked out until the fight hits the mat, where he can use his Jiu-Jitsu advantage to steal a win.

 

Marc Diakiese vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (Lightweight)
Jackson: Borshchev

I like A LOT of what I see from Slava Claus. His striking is exceptional, his hands are extremely heavy, and he's developed into a competent wrestler/grappler. Very well rounded. Meanwhile, Diakiese is well rounded, but I don't think he'll work hard enough to beat Slava. I think he's too low output, and his wrestling isn't good enough to hold down Slava for an extended period of time. I think Slava wants this fight more, and he'll emerge victorious, either by KO or decision.

Brandon: Borshchev

Slava brings the heat in the Octagon, and he can really pack a punch for a Lightweight. His defensive wrestling is effective enough to where I don't think he's in significant danger from Diakiese, and I can't see Diakiese avoiding Slava's power for 15 minutes. He's in a major funk as of late, and it doesn't stop here. Give me Slava by KO.

 

Neil Magny vs. Max Griffin (Welterweight)
Jackson: Magny

I'm not as bullish on Magny in this matchup as others, but I expect him to outwork Griffin to a decision victory in this one. The big cage will help him keep this fight at distance, and use his reach advantage and cardio to outstrike Griffin. Griffin's been on a nice run, but Magny's been fighting a much higher quality of opponents for the majority of his career. I think the wrestling of each fighter will probably negate the other, but Magny might be able to use the clinch to his advantage too. There is a scenario where Griffin lands the more meaningful and powerful strikes, or even knocks Magny out. But, I think Magny has the tools to win this fight, and he definitely has the experience.

Brandon: Magny

I like Neil Magny's game, and while I don't see him as more than a gatekeeper, I think he's a high quality one at that. Griffin isn't on the same level yet, and while he may continue to develop, now isn't the time. I don't expect this one to hit the mat often, but I do expect it to hit the cage as Magny gets Griffin in the clinch and goes to work. On the feet, it should be relatively even, but Magny will use his length to keep himself at distance from the power shots from Pain and pick him apart with counter-striking. Magny by relatively easy decision.

 

Sara McMann vs. Karol Rosa (Women's Bantamweight)
Jackson: Rosa

I'm pretty confident in Rosa for this fight. She honestly is a fighter I like to get behind, one that will fight for your dollar, and always has a good shot at winning a decision. Meanwhile, Sara McMann is a 1-2 round fighter that is always a liability anywhere other than on top. I expect her to get takedowns, especially in the first, but I expect Rosa to outwork her after those takedowns. Honestly I think Rosa could get it done by submission, late KO, or decision. McMann probably needs to wet blanket Rosa for the first 2 rounds to have a chance to win, and I just don't see that being an easy task for her. 

Brandon: Rosa

Mama Bear McCann is a high level wrestler, but she also has about one round of solid gas. Rosa can grapple, but when she isn't grappling, she throws with incredible output and will dominate this fight on the feet. I think it's even possible she knocks McCann out. Either way, I don't see McCann holding up long enough to win two full rounds, and Rosa gets it done by decision or late finish.

 

Chris Gutierrez vs. Batgerel Danaa (Bantamweight)
Jackson: Danaa

I've had a difficult time picking this fight. Danaa is an explosive power puncher that throws wild hooks, and could possibly having a gas tank problem. Gutierrez is a pretty good striker with good kicks, good output (trains at elevation), and good durability. Stylistically, I would normally be on Gutierrez in this matchup. I always like to back chins and cardio against less than technical power punchers with questionable cardio. But, I don't think Gutierrez is the guy I want to back here - his style just isn't as visually pleasing to the judges. Danaa will push forward, undoubtedly land at some point, and Gutierrez tends to leave his head up in the air. If he doesn't knock him out, I expect Danaa to do enough to win the first 2, and survive the third to earn a decision victory. Another possible route to victory could be the wrestling from Danaa, as I think he will be much stronger and Gutierrez has previously lacked in this area. But, we haven't seen this from him. Gutierrez could have success in the bigger cage staying to the outside and leg kicking Danaa to take away his power. But, I still want the guy with the more visually appealing style in this one.

Brandon: Danaa

This is going to be a harder fight for both fighters than they have had in a while. Both have been crushing cans lately, and now a tough matchup looms for both. Gutierrez has a cast-iron chin, but hasn't fought anyone with the power and output on Danaa. Danaa is a hard hitter, but hasn't fought anyone with the chin or wrestling ability of Gutierrez. I don't think the wrestling comes into play, but it's a possibility that may be in Danaa's mind. In the end, I see Danaa outboxing Gutierrez throughout the fight, but Chris hanging in tough and mixing in some good moments himself. I have Danaa winning unanimously, but in a close decision.

 

Aliaskhab Khizriev vs. Denis Tiuliulin (Middleweight)
Jackson: Khizriev

I don't know much about Tiuliulin, but I know I want to be behind Khizriev in this fight. He's a well rounded Russian with a Khabeard, meaning he's an excellent grappler and is pretty explosive on the feet. Apparently nobody wants to fight this guy, but Tiuliulin said that he would accept this fight on short notice if he's given a contract from the UFC. Not a good sign for him. I expect Khizriev to get it done in the first here. 

Brandon: Khizriev

This is a rare fight where putting a -750 favorite in your parlay may be worth it. Tiuliulin is a fish out of water on his back, and Khizriev is an elite wrestler who will get Denis to the mat very early. Khizriev gets this fight done on the ground in any way he chooses (most likely submission but don't rule out G&P), and does it in round 1.

 

Manon Fiorot vs. Jennifer Maia (Women's Flyweight)
Jackson: Fiorot

I think Manon Fiorot is probably the best prospect in the women's flyweight at this point in time, and I think she's going to pretty much dismantle Maia on the feet in this matchup. If Jessica Eye can land 100 significant strikes on Maia, I think Manon will land at least 150. She'll be much faster, has excellent kicks, punches, and clinch work. I think Maia will struggle to land on Fiorot, given her speed and ability to manage range with her kicks. I honestly think the best game plan for Maia is to try to wrestle, but I think she'll struggle with that too; Manon is extremely strong for the division, and has pretty decent grappling. Maia is durable, so I think Manon gets it done by a one sided decision in this one.

Brandon: Fiorot

I learned about Manon from Jackson in her UFC debut, so I will cede to him here. Fiorot will attack with high pace, volume, and accuracy, can hold her own grappling, and should destroy Maia on the feet. Maia is durable so I don't see a finish, but it's possible.

 

Matheus Nicolau vs. David Dvorak (Flyweight)
Jackson: Nicolau

On a card where I don't like many dogs, I like Matheus here. I think he's a sharper striker than Dvorak, and should be able to effectively counter him on the feet, and mix in his ground game with the wrestling. I think Nicolau fights mostly smart, and has fought a much higher level of competition than Dvorak. I like Dvorak, and he definitely has a shot at winning this fight by using his pressure to beat up Nicolau and possibly knock him out, or win a decision victory, how his style is appealing to the judges. But, I'd like to go with the more well-rounded and more experienced technician in Nicolau in this fight.

Brandon: Nicolau

I like Dvorak's striking, especially his combinations where he isn't much of a one-punch guy but often gets active in the striking. However, I think Nicolau has phenomenal counter striking, and appears to be the more technical fighter. Dvorak has a great sprawl and is effective in defending takedowns and is dangerous on his back, but Nicolau has clean entries and drives his feet to flatten out opponents, where Dvorak could be rendered less effective. I'm rolling with Nicolau to win what I think will be a close decision fight.

 

Luis Saldana vs. Bruno Souza (Featherweight)
Jackson: Saldana

I'm picking Saldana primarily for one reason in this fight: he'll be the fighter moving forward. This will not only look good for the judges, but also will allow him to conserve his gas tank, which mainly is responsible for losing his last fight. With a fresh gas tank, I expect Saldana to land the more impactful strikes, as Bruno doesn't have much power and I expect the output to be competitive. In a close decision, I expect Saldana to win because he'll have the bigger moments in the fight, and likely get the better of the exchanges.

Brandon: Saldana

I think this fight is going to look very similar to Souza's debut against Melsik. Saldana is more talented than Souza and will look to push the pace for the first two rounds, likely winning with his length and output. Saldana notably doesn't have the best gas tank, so he is likely to fade if he is attacking with high output, but his skill alone should should be enough to win him the first two rounds, and I don't see Souza getting a finish. Saldana should win on the judges scorecards, but if he loses either of the first two rounds, Souza is live.

 

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