UFC 317 Predictions: Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira, June 28, 2025
- Lm Tipster
- Jun 28, 2025, 6:04:50 AM
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira - Main Event: Ilia "El Matador" Topuria vs. Charles "Do Bronxs" Oliveira
The highly anticipated main event of UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira on June 28, 2025, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV, will crown a new lightweight champion. The undefeated former featherweight champion Ilia "El Matador" Topuria moves up a weight class to face the former lightweight king and UFC record holder Charles "Do Bronxs" Oliveira for the vacant title.
Fighter Backgrounds
Ilia Topuria
Ilia "El Matador" Topuria (16-0-0), representing the Climent Club, is a perfect 16-0 in his professional MMA career. He is a a formidable and well-rounded fighter with a blend of knockout power and elite submission grappling. He recently vacated his featherweight title after dominating the division, including a spectacular knockout of the legendary Alexander Volkanovski and a third-round finish of Max Holloway. Topuria is confident, powerful, and has proven to be a finisher with 6 wins by TKO/KO and 8 by submission.
Charles Oliveira
Charles "Do Bronxs" Oliveira (35-10-0), fighting out of Chute Boxe, is a living legend in the lightweight division. He holds the UFC records for most finishes (20) and most submission wins (16) and has an ever-improving Muay Thai-based striking game. While he lost his title on the scales in 2022 and then to Islam Makhachev in a subsequent title fight, he has since rebounded with dominant victories, including a recent unanimous decision over Michael Chandler. Oliveira is known for his aggressive style and his ability to finish a fight at any moment, whether on the feet or the ground.
Fighting Styles and Strengths
Ilia Topuria
- Finishing Power: Topuria has shown he can end a fight with a single punch or a slick submission.
- Elite Grappling: A BJJ black belt with a strong wrestling base, he has a dangerous top game and is highly skilled at finding submissions.
- Technical Striking: His boxing is crisp and powerful, and he can set up his shots with feints and footwork.
Charles Oliveira
- Record-Breaking Submissions: Oliveira's jiu-jitsu is arguably the best in the UFC. He can snatch a submission from anywhere.
- Dangerous Striking: His Muay Thai has improved immensely, and he's a serious threat in the clinch and at a distance with powerful punches and knees.
- Relentless Pace: "Do Bronxs" pushes a pace that can overwhelm opponents and often finds finishes after weathering an early storm.
Recent Performances
Ilia Topuria
Ilia Topuria has been on an unstoppable tear, culminating in two back-to-back knockout victories over featherweight legends Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway. He has a perfect professional record and has faced and defeated elite competition, proving he is a top-tier talent in the UFC.
Charles Oliveira
After a submission loss to Islam Makhachev, Charles Oliveira has bounced back with a dominant performance, finishing Beneil Dariush and winning a unanimous decision over Michael Chandler. His only recent loss was a split decision to the tough Arman Tsarukyan, a fight that was highly competitive.
Odds and Betting Information
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | -450 |
| Charles Oliveira | +330 |
Ilia Topuria is a significant favorite at -450, reflecting his undefeated record and dominant performances. Charles Oliveira is a sizable underdog at +330, which may be a tempting line for bettors who believe in his experience and finishing ability. The recommended pick is Ilia Topuria to win at -450, a line that is a bit steep but reflects the strong confidence in his abilities.
Keys to Victory
Ilia Topuria
- Be Patient: Topuria needs to avoid getting reckless and falling into Oliveira's grappling traps.
- Use Leg Kicks and Body Shots: Attacking Oliveira's legs and body can slow down his relentless pressure.
- Capitalize on Oliveira's Striking Defense: Oliveira is known for taking a shot to give one. Topuria can capitalize on this to land a fight-ending blow.
Charles Oliveira
- Initiate the Clinch and Grappling: Oliveira needs to use his striking to close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where he holds a clear submission advantage.
- Utilize Knee and Elbows in the Clinch: Once in close, Oliveira can use his Muay Thai to inflict damage.
- Stay Composed Under Pressure: Oliveira has shown a tendency to get hit early in fights, and he must avoid taking big shots from a power puncher like Topuria.
Prediction
This is a true champion vs. champion matchup, with a new weight class and a vacant title on the line. While Charles Oliveira is a living legend and a massive threat on the ground, Ilia Topuria's grappling is extremely underrated. He has a 92% takedown defense, and his BJJ black belt is a serious factor. Topuria's striking power is also exceptional, as seen in his recent knockouts of two of the best featherweights of all time.
The main question is how Topuria's power will translate to the lightweight division. He has shown an incredible ability to finish fights at 145 lbs, and if he carries that power to 155 lbs, it will be a major problem for Oliveira. Oliveira has also been dropped multiple times in his career, and against a precise and powerful striker like Topuria, that could be a fatal flaw.
The most likely scenario is that Topuria will be able to either stuff Oliveira's takedowns or win the positional battles on the ground, neutralizing Oliveira's biggest strength. On the feet, Topuria is the cleaner and more powerful striker. While Oliveira has a path to victory via submission, Topuria's confidence and ability to remain composed under fire will allow him to find his shots and land the knockout blow. Given Topuria's undefeated record and his recent performances against the best in the world, he is the clear pick to win the vacant lightweight title.
Prediction: Ilia Topuria via KO/TKO.
Best Bet: Ilia Topuria to win (-450). While the odds are not great for a straight bet, the value is in the confidence of the pick. Topuria has the skills to neutralize Oliveira's ground game and the power to end the fight on the feet. The weight cut to lightweight seems to have gone smoothly, and he has a significant momentum advantage. Expect Topuria to put on a clinical performance and finish Oliveira to become a two-division champion. A prop bet on Topuria to win by KO/TKO is also a good option for better odds.
Betting on MMA carries inherent risks. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not guarantee outcomes. Please bet responsibly. Odds are subject to change.
